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High Stakes 01/31/2009 - 8:45 AM

Super Bowl? If an 9-7 team is playing in your sport's ultimate event, you can't call it super, never mind with a capital "S." (Apologies to readers from Arizona, and best of luck.) What we have in store for us in Melbourne tomorrow night, though, ought to be truly spectacular: Roger Federer versus Rafael Nadal in their first major final on a hard court and 19th meeting overall. Call it Super Bowl XIX. Here is what's at stake. (And if you want to read some fine coverage of the women's final, a.k.a., "Serena's Melbourne Massacre: Revenge of the Champ," check out Abby Lorge here.)Fednadal

Greatness
No matter what Roger Federer does the rest of his career, he deserves a place among the game's all-time greats. Is Rod Laver--by virtue of his two Grand Slams--better? Or perhaps Bjorn Borg should wear the crown, simply for executing the French Open-Wimbledon double, the most difficult turn in the sport, three consecutive years? I'll admit that after three years of this back and forth, I've begun to tire of the argument. If Federer ties Pete Sampras' record of 14 major titles or beats it, he's the greatest (as long as you're willing to accept that just as strong an argument might be made for Laver). If Federer does this by beating his rival in the process, all the better. The danger here is if he loses. In terms of history, there is more on the line in this match for Federer than Nadal, who has beaten Federer four consecutive times and 12 out of 18. Federer usually rises to the occasion, and this final is one of the biggest of his career.

No. 1
Nadal will retain the No. 1 ranking at the end of this tournament, no matter the outcome. If he wins tomorrow, though, he'll have a firm grip on the top spot (his ranking points lead will exceed 3,000). If he loses, Federer would have the last two majors to his name and seem likely to return the top spot before the season ends (he has few points to defend leading up to the French Open).

Relevance
Federer and Nadal have the best rivalry in sports at the moment, and because of them the sport is more relevant to casual fans than it has been in years. In all but one of their meetings at majors, they have produced a compelling contest. Last year's Wimbledon final woke up the world; this is a chance to grab attention again and do a lot of good for the sport.

Trivia, and Thank You
Do you think the Federer-Nadal rivalry is the best in tennis history? Maybe this trivia question will help you decide:

Which rivals played the most times in the final of a tournament?
A. Andre Agassi v. Pete Sampras
B. Ivan Lendl v. John McEnroe
C. Ivan Lendl v. Boris Becker
D. Boris Becker v. Stefan Edberg

I promise answers in a follow-up post, but I can't promise when that post will appear. As of tomorrow, I'm on full-time magazine duty, trying my best to recap what has been a wonderful tournament (and if I'm lucky, explain what it all means). I'll return with thoughts on the Federer-Nadal final, either tomorrow, or once I return to New York (on Monday). Thanks for stopping by these past two weeks and check back tomorrow. I'll be here if time permits.


121 Comments

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Posted by stenelli 01/31/2009 at 10:53 AM

How can you be the greatest of your era (not to mention all time) when your former #2 (now #1) owns you as completely as Nadal has owned Federer? Granted the h2h is 3-2 in Fed's favor, but that includes the 5-setter in Miami where Nadal won the first two sets.

If Nadal wins Sunday, the Fed Train jumps the tracks on the road to GOAT, and mires itself in sand, or in this case cement.

Posted by bake007 01/31/2009 at 10:59 AM

First!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Posted by Michael Phillips 01/31/2009 at 11:01 AM

This is going to be a great grand slam, but I am predicting Federer over Nadal 7-5, 3-6, 7-6 (4), 6-2. I am sorry but Nadal just came off a five setter against fernando and is extremely exhausted. Although Nadal is an animal, I highly doubt that he can recover in less than 48 hours and try to top the best player of all time, not to mention that he is trying to tie the all-time record of 14 slams. Federer is determined to win. People have counted him out all last year and he wants revenge after Wimbledon. I promise you that Federer WILL win. Let's go Roger!!!!

Posted by fedfan 01/31/2009 at 11:02 AM

2nd

Posted by krebs 01/31/2009 at 11:03 AM

This match between Nadal and Verdasco can now be considered as another great epic match of the same weight and class with the Wimbledon 2008 Nadal-Federer finals.
The draws that Nadal and Verdasco has to go through were the most difficult in this year's AO. Their opponents were all very tough, dangerous and all heavyweights (Murray, Tsonga, Simon, Haas and Gonzales).
While Federer's draw was relatively easy with only Berdych giving him some troubles. Safin has lost his touch, thus the decision to retire from the tour this year. Del Potro was overrated and overhyped weakling of a giant. And lastly, Roddick who has all the luck in the world to eliminate Djokovic with help of the excruciating Melbourne heat, but still has a lot to learn how to master the art of beating Federer.
Both Nadal and Verdasco deserved to be in the Finals.
With Verdasco's new-found talent and skills, I believe that Federer has no match to our boy from Madrid.
Nando, you made your country, Spain proud of you as the hero of last year's Davis Cup and your magnificent performance in this year's AO. Good luck to your new top ten ATP rankings.
Federer enjoying a much longer rest is another way to pamper him to come fresher and energized for Sunday's Finals, although this is not his fault.
I do believe that with Nadal's tenacity, deiscipline and strong determination to execute his mission to win his first HC Grandslam title, all these obstacles and "unfairness" by the event scheduler and organizers will all be overcome by Nadal, for the true measure of one true tennis champion is all found in Nadal.
Hail to the "One True Number One Grandslam Champion of All Time" RAFAEL NADAL OF SPAIN!!!
VAMOS RAFA!!!! VAMOS NANDO!!! VIVA ESPANA

Posted by Chris Dallas,TX 01/31/2009 at 11:06 AM

Nadal vs. Federer!!! If Verdasco would of won, Federer would of won easily. But now it's a whole new Ball-game. Now its Superbowl Time. Nadal has very little to rest but young to outlast opponents. For how long can he keep this up is up to his body. But my call is Nadal on top and slightly though. His game has improved so much and unbelievable curve balls. Outside hitting, almost seeming like out ball but curving back in, wow, wow. Federer will be the greatest tennis player in history but for how long can Nadal's body do this will determine also.

Posted by Nervebullet 01/31/2009 at 11:10 AM

Fed is lucky that he got to rest during the US Open Final and the Australian Open final, with Nadal and Murray having to play two days in a row.

I am sure if Nadal had more time to rest, this would have been a stronger match!

Posted by tennispunk 01/31/2009 at 11:14 AM

To early to decide greatest ever. Nadal is younger and i think has won more titles by 22 than Roger. As far as tommorrow. Slight edge to Roger. Nadal needs to mentally block the physical pain from the marathon the other night and sieze the opportunity because he may not have this opportunity again. He must not be satisfied to just get to the big event. Maybe since he is playing Roger he will dig a little deeper.

Posted by felizjulianidad 01/31/2009 at 11:21 AM

I honestly doubt Federer could've beat last night's Verdasco. I was of a different opinion before the match, but he seemed downright invincible last night. I still can't explain his loss, or Nadal's miraculous survival.

I see Federer taking it in three. I don't think Nadal will recover, psychologically, in time. He emptied his tank.

I don't even think he cried at match point in Wimbledon vs Federer.

Posted by The best is Tennis 01/31/2009 at 11:24 AM

Federer will win 3 sets to 1

Posted by VoTT 01/31/2009 at 11:28 AM

Krebs nothing against you personally but wake up! Marat Safin not dangerous? When you're in the same draw as Djokovic it is easy? Roddick beat Djokovic fair and square, even though Djokovic quit because he was losing. You thing Tsonga and Gonzales are more dangerous tha Djokovic and Roddick to go far in a grand slam? FUNNY!!!!

Posted by Mike 01/31/2009 at 11:47 AM

Gotta love it when Rafa and Fed KADs go at it. Theories, quotes, and calculations abound ... I can just imagine with this place will look like tomorrow. Moderators, you'd better get your rest! LOL

Posted by Asad Raza 01/31/2009 at 11:47 AM

Hey Tom, thanks for all the great stuff over the tourney. In answer to your question:

I do think Federer and Nadal have the best rivalry in the history of men's tennis.

Posted by Fed_14 01/31/2009 at 11:57 AM

I don't know why everyone is complaining how Nadal has only a day to recover. Fed had a five setter against Berdych and he played phenomenally well (even for him) againt Del Potro in a day rest. Nadal can definitely recover in this time. He just likes to take pressure off of himself and declares Fed the favorite before any imp match. He is gonna loop his forehands and slice more than often to get rest during the point. Given that Nadal is playing better than ever but there a lot more players who can defeat Nadal (berdych, murray, djokovic, fed, blake, tsonga) than there are who can defeat Fed (nadal, murray, djokovic). So is Nadal the real no. 1? I guess we will know on Sunday. Actually there is more pressure on Fed on Sunday since everyone giving no chance to Nadal (which is funny) but I hope Fed will win because he is a better player, he just lost confidence against Nadal after hitting two forehand errors at 5-6 15-40 duirng the Rome 2006 final! Let's go Fed!

Posted by ME 01/31/2009 at 12:11 PM

Roger Federer(SUI)[2] def. Rafael Nadal(ESP)[1] 6-0 7-6(7) 6-7(5) 6-3

Mark my words.

PS Kerbs: don't forget Federer did beat Verdasco in Kooyong.

Posted by sardar 01/31/2009 at 12:11 PM

taht gonna be a thriller match, Nadal vs Fedrer. my thoughts is,that fed.. gonaa win that.

Posted by M & T 01/31/2009 at 12:27 PM

I think Federer will win, but Nadal will win AO in 2010. Watch the pattern:
Nadal has played at the Australian Open four times. Each time he has reached a different round:

Year: Round:
2004 3d round
2005 4th round
2007 Quarterfinals
2008 Semifinals
2009 ?
2010 ?

Posted by Alex 01/31/2009 at 12:28 PM

Nadal had a difficult draw? Who did he have to beat on the way to the semis? Rochus ATP 97, Karanusich AT 92, Haas 79? And later on he played Gonzales who was too tired to compete.
On the other hand Federer... played except Seppi and Korolev in the first two rounds only seeded players and Seppi just missed seeding as ATP 35.

Posted by neeraj 01/31/2009 at 12:37 PM

fed u have to win this final. Be strong not only from phhysique but also from mind & heart. Don't fear of, that u will lose to nadal. think nadal will lose to u.

Posted by Alex 01/31/2009 at 12:38 PM

Is it unfair to that RF has one day more off... it's just the way it is and if Roger would have played on Friday would it make a difference given the fact that he barely spent a little more than 2hrs on the court? In other tournaments its different and over the course of a career none will be favored.

If RF the GOAT even though Nadal has a winning record over him? RF made RC finals 3 times in a row and without RN he would have completed the grand slam maybe twice to mach Rod Laver. Nadal is the king of clay, no question... but the reason they played so many times against each other.. mostly in finals is because RF always made it to the Clay Finals... unlike Nadal who sofar has nothing in comparison. Also don't forget how many players are really growing up on Hard court and RF had a much bigger competition in the past 4-5 years where he had to prove himself over and over again. That's not the case with Nadal.

I thing both are great players and probably will become good friends. Both probably will become the best in their own right, but right now RF just has the edge while RN has the youth.

Lets enjoy the finals...

Posted by TennisFan 01/31/2009 at 12:44 PM

I agree with the assertion that Fed would have probably lost to Verdasco in the Semis had they met. Also, had Nadal not exerted so much energy in that match, I also agree with those that say Nadal would have had the clear advantage as I truly believe that Nadal was playing better than Federer. HOWEVER, given the circumstances I believe that Federer will win in 4 sets.

In regards to the GOAT discussion, I cannot believe there is a discussion. Nadal is the greatest clay court player of all time, who given his Wimbledon victory and #1 ranking has an argument for being a top 10 player of all time. Having Nadal around actually makes Federer's argument for #1 even better, given the same # of slams IMHO. Sampras's best showing in the French was the semis - Federer's now made it to back to back finals, beaten by Nadal in 3 straight times.

There was an article talking about the "misfortune" of Andy Roddick to be playing at the same time as Federer - the same logic could be applied to Federer. Had Nadal not been playing, I promise he would have the career slam by now, going for at least #15 or #16 here, and probably completed the season slam as well - there would be no discussion of GOAT in most people's eyes. However, that Federer is the #2 player on clay, his worst surface, and only beaten by the #1 clay court player of all time is significant in his argument for GOAT.

Furthermore, the greatness also is seen in 19 straight semis - the consistency is remarkable. If he makes it to the semis in the French, he will have effectively doubled Lendl's mark - hell, Lendl is #2 and #3 on that list with 10 and 6 consecutive semis, respectively, and Federer's is longer than those combined. Lendl's record of 19 major finals with also probably be tied or broken by Federer as well.

Posted by Jody 01/31/2009 at 01:10 PM

Thanks for your blogs/thoughts Tom, I always enjoy reading what you have to say. Roger and Rafa bring so much to this sport, I can't imagine it without one or the other. Tomorrow's final should be a classic. I really look forward to it.

Posted by Louis 01/31/2009 at 01:20 PM

This match should be played on Monday in the name of fairness. Federer will probably win very easily due to Rafael's lack of time to recover.

Posted by Jillian 01/31/2009 at 01:25 PM

Louis, it's not Rogers fault Rafa had to play the day before the final. Complain to the tournament directors. They haven't given any other player the privledge of moving the final a day later, so why should they this time. And yes I know Rafa will not be fully recovered, but he is a strong, young athlete who I'm sure will bounce back quickly. I seriously doubt that this match will be easy for either player.

Posted by Kim 01/31/2009 at 01:26 PM

I think Roger has a lot more at stake in the final tomorrow, then Rafa.

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