Nadal in 2 - it's not even going to be close, as much as I would like it to be.

Thinking about Hamburg, I think there's something there that helps Roger a bit, something about the place.
We'll see - I'll be up early to watch it, I just hope Roger makes it worth it. I fear for the worst...

i agree, it won't go 3 sets, roger just can't beat this guy, no matter how much i keep hoping and wishing for it.

congrats to all nadal fans, your guy is incredible.

Pete,

I think you need to rest now. You sound very stressed!. Far more than Federer and Nadal will be later on court!.
This is the kind of tirade that neither Roger's nor Nadal's fans want to read. We are trying to encourage and support our favourite without being destructive to the other player. Or are you planning "solo" to destroy the hopes of all the other million tennis players? :)

I'm going to watch with expectation and then comes Paris and the whole show starts again. This is the best of tennis: new tournament, new opportunities.

Rafa'll take it in 2 - 6-4 7-5 maybe?

Honestly as a Fed KAD, I know on paper this isn't even close...But I believe in the Fed...all he needs is one win...just one win on clay and game over :) Here's hoping the win comes tommorrow...if it doesn't I want a fantastic match from the Fed...I think I could live with that...I hope I can live with that...I just want to see his serve and FH from the beginning of the match :)
Allez Fed Allez.

I am a huge Fed fan. I also got a chance to watch both the semis yesterday. Looking at Fed`s form on clay, I am pretty sure Rafa will win in straight sets. Fed is just not there on clay guys and Rafa

Fed needs to also see how Hewitt played against Rafa. Hewitt went for his shots and almost almost pulled it off. The best part aboout Rafa`s game is that he always gets the ball in the court and has very few unforced errors. Fed has to approach this game the same way as James Blake does when he plays agianst Rafa....attacking. You cannot play defensive against this guy on clay. He will kill you for sure. Fed needs to get his first serve in and quickly find his array of shots unlike his match against Moya where he started hitting the ball well in the third set. Unfortunately against Rafa, if he continues to play the same way, there will be no third set.
Also, the way Rafa is playing, I am finding it tough to believe anyone can take 3 sets out from him at the French Open. Looking forwrad to see a good match.

Morning all. Not sure I can even bear to watch today's final live. I might just record it and watch it back later. For some reason had no doubts about the Hewitt match - but this is TMF! Of course, Rafa ought to win this one.....

I think the best option for Federer today is to just admit he will lose this match. He shouldn't play tentatively like in Monte-Carlo, he should try a vast array of tactics and consider this match as a real-life experiment before RG. And if he ends up with 50 UFEs, to hell with it. Serve and volley, dropshot, attack, defend, TMF should try everything. THAT would be gathering information, not beginning the match strongly, then retreating and being pushed around by Nadal in yet another humiliating defeat. If he goes down, at least with panache.

Federer will win this.

No current logic suggests he will.

Except that he has overcome every obstacle he has faced at one time or another.

He will again.

Fed is coming back but still not enough at this stage to beat Nadal on clay and in a final. Nadal's forehand is now even more powerful than last year's, it's more penetrating and deeper! So, Fed has to play the match of his life to beat him tomorrow

Well, I'm from Hamburg and I have seen Federer's wins here over the last years. Somehow he has managed to play his best clay court tennis in the Hamburg finals over the last years (vs. Coria and vs. Safin). Although I can't see Federer win three sets with his backhand against Nadal's topspin, I believe that Federer might be able to win a two set final if he gets of to a quick shot like he did last year in Paris...I think his history of good clay court play in Hamburg might actually give him the extra self-confidence needed to get of to such a quick start. I've seen Nadal play all week and I am yet to see him get of to a really good start. And by the way when I look out of my window I'm not quite sure whether the roof will be open or closed, which might also play into Federer's hands.

Vincent @ 4:40am ---
u have got the right idea. fed just has to make this a respectable loss going down trying his variety. at least then it might be bearable or even interesting to watch á la the proverbial "contrast of styles".

Do you think TMF's baseline style hasn't allowed his volleys to improve? Huh Vincent?

The Perfect Tennis Player = TMF's beautiful winners + Sampras' S&V + Nadal's Legs & Strength

I find it hilarious how the Federer fans are all "Ugh, Roger has no chance" and I as a Nadal fan am already stressed out about this match and there are two hours left to go before it even starts. I don't think it's as in the bag as you all do. He seems tired and out of sorts to me. But then I'm a Rafa fan, and I don't expect anything to come easily.

I'm also shaking my head at the "another tiresome trophy biting ceremony" thing. Maybe you weren't guilty of this Pete, I don't know, but I've noticed a lot of people who used to tell me how I should be appreciating how amazing Roger was while gobbling up every title in site are often the same ones who are complaining how predictable and dull it is to see Rafa do the same thing. I guess it's only amazing when it's your boy doing the gobbling.

I also don't think it matters a bit to the French Open prospects if Roger wins today. If Roger wins he might feel better but I don't think it's going to affect Rafa much.

throwing all caution to the wind and delurking for a change,

Federer 7-6 (4), 4-6, 7-6 (9)

As you can tell, I always have high hopes for great matches. The problem is that it'll probably turn out to be just another typical day at the office for Rafa. I hope not though. As much as I admire his streak, I'd love to see a bit more drama develop before we head into the FO.

Pete, shouldn't your title have been "I'll See You in Hail"?

I was so down after Hewitt's defeat yesterday that I almost decided to skip the final.... of course after an evening out and some sleep , it's impossible!!!

Andrew :"five-second bragging right" : that was my yesterday prediction before Nadal-Hewitt match

[Ok, let's try to rationalize for a second:

-Hewitt is back and I mean really back, the -obnoxious- fighting spiring, the shots, no sign of injuries, ...mmm, I can't seen him being intimidated by Rafa; he even practiced with the lefty at the beginning of the week (guess The Legend didn't think he would face him the semis!!!).

THE LEGEND (d. Hewitt) but in three this time : the HOOT will take one set+ push Rafa to a 7-5 something]

I'M A MEDIUM OR WHAT.....!!!

today

THE LEGEND (d. CAMISA ROJA aka the Fed)

"Pete, shouldn't your title have been "I'll See You in Hail"?"

I raised my eyebrows at that, as I have noticed that posters on here always say "what the hail" instead of "what the hell", and thought it was a) because of house rules or b) that's what Americans said - and have found it somewhat bizarre :)

Shannon said "I guess it's only amazing when it's your boy doing the gobbling"

Pause?

Good morning all. The fun is about to begin! My biggest hope for today is that the real Fed shows up, not that Fed impersonator who's been dragging his feet through the red clay of Europe all spring. Go Fed! And in the sportsmanlike tradition of tennis ~ have a good match, Rafa.

has anybody noticed that although TMF's forehand is off his backhand's been the best that I've seen on clay? Sure it doesn't compare to the way he played it at the TMC, but I haven't seen a whole lot of success from people gunning for his backhand this week.

And how about playing like Davydenko did? Short angled forehands to get Rafa out of court. And his slice approach was working well against Moya, so with Rafa's exaggerated exaggeration of an exaggerated grip, it could work

And by the way -- does anyone else watching The Tennis Channel find it annoying that the Bryans are playing Hanley and Ulyett in the doubles final at Hamburg right now, but we're watching some No Strings that's been on, oh, about 1000 times before?

I think fed-ex has bigger problems than win/lose today. He needs to find his serve and FH. If he does, he will automatically give rafa a good fight. If not, I can see a thrashing. Let's be honest, ferrer and moya are a bunch of sissies when you put them against the "mental giant" that is Rafa! All in all, I hope fed-ex finds his game, so that he is ready for the FO and the rest of the season.

Win/lose it is all positive for fed-ex. If he beats rafa, he would have dealt a big blow ahead of the FO. If he looses, it is just another loss and the next time they meet the pressure will still be on rafa to keep his spotless record on clay. Just hoping very badly that fed-ex finds his serve and FH. go fedal :)

Doubles match is over....Federer has to believe he can win, and that excludes all the talk about how he can't beat Nadal on clay. If he doesn't believe it, I don't see how it will happen short of a complete breakdown from Nadal the likes of which we haven't seen from him for a long time, maybe ever. He's world number one. I want to see attitude. Go Fed!

Pete doesn't say that Nadal winning is boring, he says that the way with which he wins is boring. I've already seen two finals on clay, Monte-Carlo and Rome, and both were complete blowouts. Perhaps Fed and Gonzo just weren't there mentally, perhaps it's precisely Nadal's strength to break down his opponents' games, but the end result is, both finals were boring and painful to watch. I'm gonna be completely partial here, but Fed's finals had at least some drama and fine shotmaking, while with Nadal it's too predictable, you just know his opponent will break down at the beginning of the second set. I'd like to be proven wrong this afternoon, though.

Of course, this final is an important match, but there is no reason to hype it up so much. In my view, Roger has got nothing to lose. I am already very happy that he made it to the finals despite sloppy play. I agree that I will be disappointed a little if he loses, but his efforts has to be appreciated. He came back from a set down against Moya warding off his own deamons like a true champion. I don't even care if he does not win a FO - he is already the best! And yes, phenylalanine, Roger's bh seems much better than his forehand and serve. It was a little dreadful to watch him serve or hit a forehand. Go Roger!!

cosign Susi. What's odd is that TC does often play doubles. It seems that the broadcaster that carries the Masters Series tourneys doesn't like to include doubles.

What's fascinating is how much is in play here before you even start factoring Nadal into the equation. Fed has to conquer his current lack of confidence, the fact that he hasn't won a title in his last four attempts, and the knowledge that the the tennis world is watching this match wondering what it confirms or doesn't confirm about his slump.

That's all stuff that has nothing to do with Nadal, the man who fears Fed less than anybody else, the one whom Fed has never managed to beat on clay. And then there's the little fact that Fed had match points against Rafa in Rome last year and blew them. Think THAT won't be on Fed's mind if he somehow manages to get into a winning position today?

I dunno. That's a LOT to overcome in the noggin. Never mind what Fed's up against on the court. I just don't see it. Like Pete said, you can't just dismiss the guy, but it's awfully hard to imagine him pulling it off today. He's in precisely the opposite place that his opponent is and that just has to effect how they play when push comes to shove, if it even gets that close.

If anyone thinks that Fed will give up trying to win the French even if he is double bagelled today, they don't know the man. He'd have got far more criticism from everyone, including himself, if he didn't at least try to get the only slam he hasn't won. It would have been so easy to give up the hunt, but why should he?

Rolo:

Pressure can be such a double edged weapon. If federer wins the 1st set, what would that do to nadal's psyche? but yea, agree he is in a far better position to deal with it than fed-ex!

"Nadal in 2 - it's not even going to be close, as much as I would like it to be."

"i agree, it won't go 3 sets, roger just can't beat this guy, no matter how much i keep hoping and wishing for it."

This kind of BS don't suprise me a bit as in these times people stop trying to be knowledgable about something and just go with their hearts. This kind of BS of suposed gurus of tennis as Bodo helps in that way: "Unless he goes into today's match with Rafael Nadal in that frame of mind, he's got about as much chance of winning as Nikolay Davydenko has of being the next, official American Idol. Or Russian Idol."

Seing things with your feelings and desires and not with rationality and insightfull knowledge makes you act and write as you were in a ride of a roller coaster. In that way your favorite player will be invencible or has no chance depending of your frame of mind.

Let me put this clear: Federer won't lose or win depending of your frame of mind or your BS, but of his frame of mind and of his BS. Let me put this even clear: if federer can play his best for 3 or 3 sets he will win allways easily against Nadal. But the thing is that for some reason he can't play his best all the time against nadal and Nadal can play his best all the time against Federer.
Federer has to figure it out if it's because of the surface or because of his frame of mind. Anyway even with this reality it was allways close between Nadal and Federer on Clay as an reality check of the results could easly proved. Go get it and stop the BS.

If anyone's interested, it looks as though the Bryan brothers won the doubles in straight sets. Go Mike & Bob! Has anyone ever completed a calendar year slam in doubles?

Isn't the match supposed to have started already?

I dont see a thing in the ATP live streaming site...

If Fed doesn't win today, I hope at least he walks out having tried everything. To be philosophical for a minute, I think we Fed fans are pretty spoiled sometimes. Nobody else wins as much as this guy does, but is that enough? Next tournament, next title, next step toward the greatest ever, whatever the heck that means. There shouldn't be any pressure on Federer from fans to do anything besides give his best and have fun. Period. He's the one doing the work, so we should shut up now and then.

Start time is 2:00 local time? The doubles has been over for a while now, nothing new on the scoreboard.

Hewitt did a good job of neutralising Nadal's game, especially with that two-handed crosscourt backhand.
How could emulate that his one-handed backhand I'm not sure but I bet he'll come through in two.
By the way, I always think the same way every time they meet. One day it'll prove true :) Maybe today. It would be fitting to have that clay streak broken by the #1.

(cont.)

Even if Federer lose today that will not change nothing to RG. In 10 matchs he might lose 9 but in a day that he can pull out his best play for 5 sets he will win. RG maybe that day. we will know only in the day. But i see the point of making each game greek tragedy for someone interested inselling magazines. Good marketing aproach Bodo but could you start talking insightfully about tennis one of these days. It woul be greatly apreciated...

It's just too bad that this isn't a magazine. ;)

The Tennis Channel began its coverage at 8 a.m. US East Coast time. They are showing quick recaps of yesterday's semis right now, so I would imagine the players will be taking the court in the next five to 10 minutes.

If anyone is interested, Brad Gilbert says Fed in two:

"I’m picking Federer in two sets (6-4, 6-4), due to his past results at this event and because on this type of clay court the ball stay lower and is heavier which he says he likes. Now that he’s with out a coach I’ll be watching Fed carefully to see if he makes any adjustment in his game."

(From Gilbert's site)

Morning everyone - is the ATP site working? I signed on for the live match but it's just blank ???

"It's just too bad that this isn't a magazine. ;) "

Yes this is not a magazine but hey smart guy why do you think this site exists in the first place? To let you to putt your funny ideas? yeah rigth...

Yeah, I find the page, black & blank !! :((((

Hi all, ATP Masters TV working fine. Players not on court yet.

Enjoy the match everyone!

Great, great post. :-)

Down the Jet Boy!!!

The match hasn't started yet.

10 minutes after, still no change on the scoreboard. Probably any minute now though.

Im not shocked or surprised by the media bashing of late for Mr. Fed, it echoes last year almost exactly, and then Fed shut everyone up for about 8 months losing one match in that time and adding, oh, 3, more Slams to his record which has left McEnroe, Becker, Agasssi, etc in the dust...cleary, he's top 4 on the GOAT list now, at age 25...

he's the No. 1, it comes with the territory, but its time for the 'lalalalalalala' approach to all these predictions of Fed's demise, and lets also remember this is clay specific--Rafa's best surface, no one beats him, he's a freak of nature, but WOW it would be fun to see Fed serve, slice, dice, run, and gut out a win, with the shotmaking he's capable of...

From Eurosport's commentary:

NADAL ON TODAY'S MATCH: "I am very happy to be in the final and to be playing against him (Federer). It's always a special match. He arrives with confidence because he won some difficult matches this week. And I have been playing very good tennis in the last week and I will be a hundred percent mentally and physically."

FEDERER ON TODAY'S MATCH: "It's exactly the opportunity I want to have again just before the French Open playing against Rafa here in Hamburg. He's on an incredible winning streak and I've just played him in Rome, so again I know how to play him and it's just important to get my first win against him on clay."

The linespeople have marched out and bowed to the crowd, the ball kids are in place, and TTC is showing crowd shots and killing time talking waiting for Fed and Rafa. It's taking them a long time to take the court.

G'mornin, folks! *mighty yawn* This is the earliest I've seen the light since... Well, excluding once last week, the Monte Carlo final!

Can we all just ignore Brad Gilbert...last week he said Nadal was ubeateable and that thee guy was a monster who would be #1 by the end of this year and all of a sudden Fed will beat Rafa in the final...it's official the guy has lost his mind :)

Hey kids! Doesn't it just seems so DRAMATIC whenever these two play? I'm dyin' here.

GO FED!

The ATP feed wasn't working for me at 8:01 but is fine now at 8:16. The match hasn't started yet.

Hey Lucy!

I'm here with my hopes, delusions and my Gluckschwein.

Go Roger!

hey flyer. nothing started yet - we'er watching the crowd. people definately in a good mood and are pumped. Get ready for a raucas match!

I agree w/ Pete - TMF just needs to say what the hail and come out firing. Throw caution and everything but the kitchen sink at nadal and see what shakes out. I expect a lot of UE, but Fed has to leave it out on the court and not 'think'.

But if TMF loses, he loses - and he'll come into the French and do everything he can to win. Its status quo, but I believe Fed will run up against Rafa every chance he can trying to beat him. He's not going to stop. Like Roddick against Fed, he's going to keep tthrowing himself under the bus until he wins.

I can't even imagine the pressure that both these guys are under.

OK - everyone play nice. No one loose their breakfast/lunch on their keyboards please.

For anyone concerned that Nadal has played too much tennis in the past few weeks - he's still played 30 less games on clay this summer than he had at this time last year, due to first-round byes, no five-set finals, and a smaller number of sets and proportion of games lost. Obviously there's the mental side side of playing matches than can also lead to fatigue - but he ought not to be particularly physically fatigued at this stage.

nadal v federer about to start on sopcast channel 18190. commentary is in spanish however, but the feed is respectable.

I think we may well have seen very spectator twice now... except Mirka is nowhere to be seen...

Rafa's walking out finally, and Fed's right behind him. Let the games begin!

They are on court.

Viva The Streak!

rafa and rog, so cute, they pat the heads of their little kid escorts, and smile, they are two classy guys i like that ... lendl and mcenroe and connors woudl have scowled and ignored them u just know they would have!

What a coincidence Sanja. I'm here with my hopes, delusions, and shiraz.

GO FED! Oooh exciting.

Guten Tag, TW, I WILLN'T pick a winner, hopefully for fans of both, we'll just get a good match. To Tw's resident bad boy, Serena is in the top ten and will be seated 6-8 at the FO due to pull out of Kim, Martina and I think Vadisova may have pulled out. Also, Nadia is injured. Congrats to her. Go Justine!

Hopefully Federer will pull out all the stops today and play with a nothing-to-lose attitude. This match doesn't really affect his legacy. His legacy and whether he's goat will come down to winning the French and/or total slams. This is his chance to try something new against Nadal. If Nadal wins, even if he wins easily, nothing changes about the French and that final is still a long way away.

the key about the head to head, again, is the fact that Roger keeps getting to clay court finals, and Rafa rarely manages that on hardcourts, its amazing that 5 of Rafa's 7 wins are on clay, 4 in finals ... Fed's 'success' on clay is also his undoing in this head to head thing, perhaps time to right the ship a bit today?

*i can dream* and i will ... its great Fed gets another shot at Rafa before paris, but would a win jinx him for paris, or spur him on? can Fed beat Rafa TWO in a row on clay?

oh, the possibilities... lol

I know Tim - I was just thinking how thrilled these kids must be to have drawn Fed and Rafa as 'their' player. And both guys are just so darn cute with them. Rafa's escort's head barely reaches the bottom of his piratas, and Fed shakes hands and thanks his before the do pics.

It's Paris that matters, so does Hamburg matter? Is this a must-win? Can Federer pull it off here? Is Pete's post useless hype?

Who cares!

The GOAT is stepping on the court angry against the one guy he can't scare. Bear down and Blast the Jet Boy!

My computer is in a separate room from the TV so I've got to go watch the match. Enjoy it everyone and may the best man win!

Hey - that's me. My name is disappearing?! but its in the name field. Mhm - better start signing my posts...? jb

OK - site now working for me - so now I can become a nervous wreck and walk out of the room and not watch anything....

The commentators keep saying the best-of-3 format gives Federer a better chance than he would have in a best-of-5. I disagree. Nadal's style is so tiring that he's never beaten Federer in straight sets on clay in a best-of-5 match. I think best-of-5 would be better for Federer.

Well, I'm choosing (Hark, Andrew), Nadal for this.

Keep Smiling

eggsiting.....fed over rafa, 6-3, 6-2.

Hmmmm. Nadal chose to receive, right?

That's great.

I know Federer was broken when serving first yesterday, so it's a good chance for him to assert his serve immediately today.

lol great to see all the Fed fans in the house, where have yall beeen??

Now that I've done that, (Codepoke's fault), we see that Nadal
has chosen to receive serve. Why?

Here we go.

Keep Smiling

mod squad - its just that keeping up the level of play necessary to beat rafa is very hard to do over 5. I'm not sure if I agree, with them, as with best of 2 - there's no chance to get into a grove. And Fed needs time to get into his groove typically.

Oh no! Fed lost the first point. We're all going to die!

That was me at 8:33. JB

Creig - THIS is why Rafa elected to recieve first.

morning and happy match everyone.

Ah. First sign of aggression, and safely back to deuce. :-)

Dear Roger -

A good first serve will help.

Trust me.

Best Regards,

JB

first serves, Rog.... well done lol

ha! the Fed smiling after winning the first point....

Part of the reason Federer took Nadal to five sets in Rome last year was because Nadal got tired. All that grinding tires Nadal out, too. Nadal also got tired when they went to a fifth set in Miami a couple of years ago.

"Oh no! Fed lost the first point. We're all going to die!" Codepoke you're funny.

I don't have stats but in my recollection, when winning the toss nanner frequently elects to receive.

Creuzi Dr. Steelhammer!

They both seem equally tense. Forehand errors on both sides of the net.

Goldschlager/Gluckschwein totally interchangeable.

RogerMeister Holds.

Already Federer's making unforced errors galore.

fwttttttttt, NADAL's passing shot!

on reflection, one of the great advantages to Lucy in Oz, is that she settles in with shiraz for morning matches in Europe, whilst I have my diet pepsi.

*rethinks choice of beverage*

Federer, in the first point of his second service game, did just what I think he should not do: hit his approach shot to the open court. Nadal ran over and hit a forehand pass right by him.

Fed must get to net and end points. He won't win on the baseline.

Keep Smiling

well, first serves, end of story otherwise he's just stuck in rallies point after point... where is his serve? hope it comes back, pronto...

I really want to see Roger hitting more slice and keeping the ball low to Nadal's backhand. He's got to break things up more and not get into a groundstroke battle. Not that this is a new insight!

Nadal breaks. Go Roger!

Good Morning Everyone;
It's a great morning in the land of tennis and Rafa has gotten off to a great start.

Vamos Rafa

I'll never understand why Fed insists on playing a 21-stroke rally with Rafa. His chances of winning are so low. He refuses to attack and put some pressure on him.

It seems that the first set these guys every played on clay, when Nadal broke Federer time after time, has set the tone for their clay matches since.

Why can't the announcers just admit that someone got lucky? Nadal jams Federer on the serve, and Federer hits a desparation down-the-line for a winner. Federer is not, "going after the serve" with that shot.

And Nadal concedes the line to Federer on that lucky forehand DTL. I thought it was out too.