1st??

If answers:
(1) Never visited Winston-Salem
(2) Gasquet and Tsonga in singles AND Gasquet/Llodra in doubles even though Gasquet/Tsonga make a good team.

To continue the interesting thread from yesterday, (well, interesting to Rosia and me, anyway) it seems that the number of weeks between Monte Carlo and Rome is usually two, but has been one in the past.

If someone has any actual data that the dates of IW/Miami actually affected the dates of Monte Carlo and Rome, and that for some reason the European tournament directors adjusted their schedule based on U.S. television constraints, I would be intersted to see the cite.

"not seeing Roger on Sunday in the spring is like not seeing football on Sundays in the fall - people start to wonder what's going on."

Great analogy, Ed. The season has had a strange feel to it with Federer's subpar (by his standards) performance. Also, I agree with you about him not receiving the proper recognition for last year's Hamburg win.

Dunlap: Why is Rafa complaining then? I'm sure this is not made up out of whole cloth. Maybe he's noting that players have less time to prepare for the clay season due to the one week move up stateside. Right?

2006: The Year of Federer on Clay. Thank you, Ed.

The slump so far this year for Federer could be seen as a sign that he is preparing himself for a concerted attack on clay.

The one goal he hasn't attained, which would set him apart once and for from every other player the world has known, is to win Roland Garros.

Sampras never achieved it. So it takes a dedicated approach. You have to have the clay mentality, you have to train for it, and mentally prepare for it months in advance.

Bill Tilden, in one of his books, said that if tennis had to be played on only one surface, he would choose clay.

( Or I could just be making that up. )

Federer may even be eating some clay at times, as it was reported that Nadal does from time to time.

( Pregnant women have been known to have a craving for clay.)

You can almost feel the excitement building.

Oops, I mean 2008.

Dunlop/Hank: from Rafa's presser after the semifinal:
Q. A lot of the European players tell us that this part of the calendar is very hard for them. They get tired being in the United States for a month or over five weeks. You seem to play well in these tournaments. Are you comfortable here in the United States for that long of time? And if so, why is that?

RAFAEL NADAL: I'm very comfortable in United States, but not for this time. It's not fair have one month, two tournaments, and after go back to Europe and we have to play three Masters Series on clay.

We only have three Masters Series on clay during all the season, and we have three Masters Series in four weeks. So for us it's terrible, that.

And three Masters Series in the middle of the biggest tournament on clay in the world: Barcelona. So if you see the calendar, that is unbelievable.

Everybody can say about the Olympics. Is not for the Olympics. This year we have that. It's because these two tournaments are one week later, because you have university or something like this, college basketball. I respect 100% the college basketball. I think it's very important.

I know here it's very important, the college basketball, because I saw always the American players and the mens in the locker room watching always this.

But, well, we can't have the calendar thinking about the college basketball, no? So we are 100% disappointed about this decision of the ATP.

Finally the European players are, well, I don't know, very angry about these decisions, no? For me it's terrible. You know, I'm a clay player, but I can play very well on all surface. But play four weeks it's impossible if you are playing well, no?

http://www.sonyericssonopen.com/content/20080404164642.html

To compound his misery, the week that existed last year between the end of Wimbledon and the start of Stuttgart, of which he's the defending champ, has also gone - I presume that the latter move is because of the Olympics.

Pete, interesting as always. I'm not so sure that Roger's win over Rafa at Hamburg was "a massive win" though. Rafa did not have a whole lot left in the tank at that stage. I think it did Roger some good in terms of monkies on his back, but was not like say, taking the French Open, or even Monte Carlo or Rome.

Yes, I too noticed how similar Kolya's shirt looked to the one that Federer wore in the '05 final. Good catch !

Koyla was not wearing a red shirt when he beat Rafa yesterday! Better check that note...

There's also this blog article that I posted earlier:
http://arno.blogs.sportsline.com/mcc/blogs/entry/5817789/7551965. The quote from this is:"CBS, the official broadcaster of both the Sony Ericsson Open finals and the NCAA basketball tournament, wants the finals of both events to be played over the same weekend.

The previous years, 8 weeks separated the Miami finals from the start of the French Open, in Paris, France, the second grand slam of the year and the pinnacle of the clay season. This year, the gap between the two is only 7 weeks."

Pete,

I had a question for you. This "ever increasing number of critics" that you mention - how many of these
do you think follow tennis in any meaningful way ? Most of them seem to shoot off the hip, with no real
thought going into what they write. In my mind, the minimal sin they are committing is being unprofessional. Since you are clearly in the know and are deeply invested in tennis, was wondering what you feel about this.

Coming to the Federer question, Andrew thinks that he is about a month or so
away from full fitness (conditioning+tennis-reflex + focus). Your thoughts ?

I will need to see repeated and vicious (BHcc + BH DTL + FHcc) in one match to feel that he is back :)

Ed, near the end of last season you asked this If... question:

If...you were to bet your life savings on who would finish highest in the rankings in 2008, who would it be: David Ferrer, Tommy Robredo, Richard Gasquet, or Andy Murray?

It's interesting to note that with nearly the first quarter of the season gone Ferrer, who recieved the most votes, is currently the world number five (after having been as high as four for a couple of weeks). The nearest of the other three is Gasquet at number ten.
Robredo dropped to 19 while Murray, who was second in votes received, despite having won two titles, did so poorly at the big events that he dropped out of the top twenty (currently 22 in the rankings). Although I'm sure Andy's ranking will go back up and luckily for Tommy it's the start of the clay season.

Vamos Rafa!!!

Pierre, merci, you are a funny one!

So geophagy it is for Rog, the once and future king of clay...? Well, if it's good enough for lactating women...! ;)

By the way, urbandictionary.com, that arbiter of all slangs coooool enough for urbane sophisticates like... Tari and Otto (hello, you two!)... actually has an entry for grammaticide, go figure... to wit, it is "(T)he slaughtering of a language through the poor application of grammatical rules. This heinous crime is most prevalent in electronic forms of communication such as email, txt and I.M.. The worst offenders of this crime against language are those poor souls who are Gramatically challenged." Sooo satisfying, the schoolmarm in me will not lie dormant (or is it lay? ;))!!

Happy Monday, all!

Chany, you're right about the shirt. Davydenko changed into the red shirt after the match (for the trophy presentation). But he was wearing a white shirt during the match.

[]

Congrats to Davydenko for a big big win. Here's hoping for the best clay season ever by Roger. Make that #1 margin bigger and safer! Rafa has almost no points to gain until Wimby, and Djoker has fallen safely back again (1815 points) for now. The early clay season is a big opportunity for Roger to gain points: 250 at Estoril, 150 at Monte Carlo, 425 at Rome).

>Just to be clear, I'm not proclaiming this dry spell to be the end of Roger

Well good, because that would be ridiculous.

As for DC, I'd have tsonga play Singles/Doubles + Gasquet /Reverse Singles and let the other people try hard to score insurance points in the rest of the matches. (i.e. Gasquet for S2 seems reasonable) It's a lot of pressure for Tsonga but if he's a motivated DC player he can deliver. Obviously I don't know how well he and Gasquet play doubles, this is just a quess.

Mathieu and Llorda...not against Roddick or Bryans.

Christin, not everyone shares your disgust of politics.

Amit: Ed McGrogan is the author above. Either he or Pete may have some thoughts on your questions.

My estimate of a month is pure gut feel, based on observing the trajectory of Federer's play at IW and Miami (I saw very little of his Dubai match against Murray, but I know he had only resumed training about a week before that match).

OMG, nothing elicits a post from me like politics.

Go Kucinich!

Christin: please don't tell us how to do our job. And please pay attention to the site rules about baiting or berating a fellow poster.

Christin -

If the moderators had wanted to remove anyone's post, they would have. if you have a problem with the way the site is moderated, e-mail the Moderator or Pete - we do not publicly debate or justify how the site is moderated. Politics is not a big subject for discussion on these blogs, as we all know, but on occasions the flow of a conversation leads there, and after all, we do allow some off-topic discussions here in certain threads.

Also, please note that it's against the site rules to berate other posters.

Wow. Duelling mods. Seem to be saying roughly the same thing, which I suppose is reassuring...

That's K-U-C-I-N-I-C-H.

Moderator please smite Ryan for being insufficiently supportive of MITTENS. Everyone knows that MITTENS is the true path to righteousness.

Why isn't the pocket sized goodness that is Clement playing DC?

Christin, I know you mean well, but I don't see it getting out of control here. Veruca wasn't hurting anything. Far from it. If it does get out of control, the mods will refocus us. Or delete us, whatever it takes. :)

Besides, Veruca's also a Rafa fan, so they get more latitude. :)

On a related note, I feel sorry for anyone who "wins" this presidential election. Have a great time aging about 40 years in the next four. No thank you.

As for this thread, it's a testament to the quality of these MNP's that I look forward to them so much each Monday. Thanks, Ed. Very well done.

That said, I'm not sure I'd rate the Hamburg result as monumental or massive. If Roger wins Paris last year, then yes, it was the obvious springboard. But given what happened a couple weeks after Hamburg, I fail to see the great significance. It had more of the feel of Djoko winning Montreal and then going down in straights to Roger at the USO a couple weeks later. What did Montreal really mean for Djoko?

O.K. I clearly was politely making a point, not in any way personally "baiting" or "berating" a fellow poster. Far less offensive or personal than I've often seen here.

But it's properly your call if you wish to censor me. I'll play by the rules. So here goes. Roger's defeat in the QF against Roddick really depressed me. So I think I'll go out this week and work even harder to get John McCain elected President.

Presumably what's good for the goose is good for the gander. Does this illustrate my (censored) point about opening a can of worms.

Duly, if not expressly, smited.

Andrew, Pete, Ed, Ros and all that can comment:

I havent seen anything written upon a part of the game which is minimal but often used in an instinctive manner which is the way play without the ball. To explain myself better, i am not talking about court positioning as this has been discussed but at actually "playing" when the ball is on the other side of the net. In club level i know that from time to time one might "fake" going one direction to make the other player hit the ball where we rally want it to go. This is more often seen during the serve. I have noticed that players with great defense sometimes start their body motion one way and then lunge to the other side, before the other player strikes the ball... Do pros use this "knowingly" or is it a gut and "spur of the moment" kind of thing???

Christin--no. What is offensive about your statement (or Veruca's, for that matter)?

Sher: I'm not disgusted by politics. Only by intruding it into a tennis blog.

Christin,

The political discussions here are wonderful. I've enjoyed talking about this subject with posters like Tangi, TennisRone, and Bismarck. We all support different candidates and have different points of view. That's what makes it so interesting. As a McCain supporter, your input would be appreciated and more than welcome.

Ryan: Something was presumably found to be "offensive" about my statement, because they deleted it!

Orpheo--the pros have learned, at least with the serve, to recognize certain tendencies in their opponents to determine where the serve will be directed. I think during the Rog/Andy 07 US quarter Andre Agassi admitted that Boris Becker would stick out his tongue during a wide serve, and that was how he read the direction. Other factors include height and placement of ball toss, and perhaps the depth of knee bend (deeper for kick serves sometimes) or racquet placement during the swing.

I've found sometimes if I've popped up a midcourt ball, I'll briefly fake running to one side to encourage my opponent to hit behind me, then quickly turn to the other side in hopes of anticipating the shot (it doesn't always work).

Andrew,

Thanks for the correction.

Yes, a consensus of gut feelings is all we have at this point :) I was taking another look at the Roddick match. Fed's rallying rhythm is a little off; if you notice, he is a little hesitant to pull the trigger and plays an extra couple of shots. Andy was gutsy enough to hit a good FH in some of these and won the point.

I personally don't think the Hamburg win was that big an issue for either Roger or Nadal. Fed was wobbly enough to blow 16 break points at RG 2 weeks later, and Nadal never looked much bothered. Unlike all other events, Federer's tactical brain is disengaged at the FO against Nadal. Of course Nadal's incredible play has a lot to do with it. Fed can negotiate Nadal's full blast at Wimby, but not at RG. Have no idea why, and am surprised Roche couldn't help him with that.

As long as Federer returns 2nd serves with that weak BH slice to the middle of the court, Rafa has nothing to worry about.

Mittens would be clumsy as president. He is all thumbs.

This is probably what they mean by self fulfilling prophecies.

Now that Fed and Rafa are no longer invincible (and I'm a fan of them both and know they have lots of great tennis left in them), we're seeing more of the players who have been lurking in the shadows, pretty much ignored by the American media, playing some outstanding tennis on the outside courts.

Most notably, Davydenko, who more than made it to the show courts in Miami. (Go Kolya!) His play against Roddick and Nadal had lots of "did he really just do that" moments.

I've always liked David Ferrer and Kuznetsova. But we don't hear much about Kuznetsova, and even less of Ferrer.

Let's have some reporting on tennis.com about the play and careers of players who aren't stars.

Orpheo: I'm not a world class tennis player, but a reasonably good club player. FWIW, I think it would make very little sense for a receiver to try and feint to get the striker to hit the ball in a different direction, except in one or two circumstances.

During the serve, the receiver is allowed to change position. Sometimes players stand inside the BL, or close to it, and back off. They may also show a movement to allow them to hit a FH (rarely a BH). Usually the server finds it difficult to adjust the target during the service motion, so this can help the receiver get a jump. Occasionally, a server is good enough to see the adjustment and redirect the serve for an ace.

During play, the one time a "feint" is effective is when the receiver is out of position and the hitter has a chance at a winner. Sometimes the receiver may make several steps to recover to the open court, then stop, hoping to catch the hitter attempting to hit behind the receiver. Nadal used this effectively once or twice against Davydenko.

Good players will usually try to set up their footwork to enable them to delay their choice of target until the last possible moment, forcing the receiver to commit and leave part of the court open.

In most general rallies, nearly always the receiver is trying to find the best neutral position and get ready for the next ball. You can sometimes use positioning and court speed to try to induce your opponent to play a particular shot (eg DTL exposing a CC pass), but feinting (in my experience) rarely helps.

Tks..it seems that if the striker can hold to the last possible moment to direct the ball feinting would be counter productive...

Amit: I think you do Federer a bit of a disservice in your RG comments. In all Federer's seven clay court matches with Nadal, he's won an average of 48% of the points to Nadal's 52%. This is a much closer gap than, say, Davydenko-Federer (45%-55%, all surfaces).

Our interpretation of their rivalry on clay is colored by our knowledge of the H2H outcomes - 6-1 Nadal. But most of Federer's losses were in close matches; only MC 2007 was a blowout in the points tally (55%/45%). I do think Nadal goes into clay matches as favorite, but I suggest you overstate matters a touch when you write "Nadal never looked much bothered. Unlike all other events, Federer's tactical brain is disengaged at the FO against Nadal."

I actually think that Feds chances in the clay season arent as great as in other years. He has had health issues for the first time and grinders such as Ferrer, Monaco, Kolya etc, could if not upset him really take a toll on his energy reserves which due to the lack of a better prep because of the issues we all know, might leave him with not enough in the tank to be a real threat in the latter stages of a Slam or maybe even a MS....If his health issues are truly over and his fitness is as it was last year, disregard this post.

I really like your analysis of the Nadal/Federer clay matches, Andrew. It is not only reasonable, it seems to be logically optimistic! :)

Federer's victory at Hamburg was considered a big deal (mostly? mainly?) because it ended Rafa's unprecedented winning streak on clay.

By the way, from about Mid March through the first week of August, there are seven ATP masters series tournaments and two of the four Slams.

Its 17 weeks or so. Thirteen of those weeks are accounted for by the mandatory entry tournaments. Its a pretty tight calendar.

Its a broader problem, but of course, as we have seen, if players actually lose prior to the finals, I am not sure that it is that much of a hardship.

I agree with Andrew except in doubles where a good net guy can drive the receiver crazy. Moving early a half step towards the middle only to stay home for the dtl, Poaching, etc.

What you will often see and is widely taught on returning is to take a short step forward with the "split step" right as the ball goes up and is about to be struck by the server to a. get the feet moving and b. be ready to move either way. Split step also taught for net play. Being caught flatfooted is doom.

Reading the serve is about trying to find small tendencies on the toss (topspin,slice, etc.) footwork, racquet or even positioning to get a clue on direction. They call it reading the serve.

Most teaching pros will say on serve and groundies make up your mind where you are going and once in motion watch the ball and hit concentate on hitting the shot.

Andre A was one of the best at taking the ball on the rise and waiting until the last minute to direct it one way or the other.

Pete S's serve was evidently impossible to read as everything was the same until the point of inpact.

Well, Federer did play one final F/O against were clearly he left his brain in the refrigerator at the hotel. I think it was 2006. The year of the titanic five-set struggle in Rome (Nadal won). Fed did not step into the court to cut off the Nadal wide hook serve in the deuce court--Nadal employed the serve tactic over and over again to the Fed backhand, and TMF did not adjust. It was painful to watch. Don't know what the percentages were.

Correction, might be more like 20 weeks. Still, pretty packed.

Considering how world wide climate allows for a much more spread out schedule, it would be no problem.

However, we also should all remember that the tour is more than the top players. For journeymen looking to maximize income while keeping expenses down, a condensed schedule is best.

I like to feint some times, when I play tennis, mainly when I am serving.

I toss the ball and start my service motion, but at the last instant I kind of make a half swing with my racquet, and let the ball drop. I'll do that two or three times in a row, then I look up to see my opponent's reaction. I usually smile then too.

But I don't use it all the time, just on important points like when it is 40-30. To use it more often would be unsportsmanlike.

Pierre: hate to tell you this, but if you were to actually do what you describe (I hope you're describing something you think of doing, rather than what you actually do) when I was on the other side of the net:

1) on the second occasion you "half swing" at the ball I'd invoke Law 19b:

19. SERVICE FAULT (OLD 10 & 39)
The service is a fault if:
b. The server misses the ball when trying to hit it;

2) I might also consider asking for the point on grounds of hinderance:

26. HINDRANCE (OLD 21,25 & 36)
If a player is hindered in playing the point by a deliberate act of the opponent(s), the player shall win the point.

(If I'm getting ready, split stepping etc, and I have no idea whether you're actually going to serve, I believe I can legitimately claim hinderance).

3) I most certainly would consider the checking of a service motion to deliberately create uncertainty in an opponent even once unsportsmanlike.

I'm a sufferer of toss yips, myself - it isn't deliberate, and has (I think) a much bigger impact on me (because my serve goes haywire) than it does on my opponent. But I'll never deliberately mistoss, and often I'll hit a poor toss if I've caught one or two tosses because I think repeatedly tossing and catching the ball isn't fair to the opponent.

Dunlop Maxply,
how condensed of a schedule are we talking about?
How is it fair to have 3 master series in one month? And if ATP did it for the sake of lower raked players, that would have been another story, but it for the college basketball finals and CBS!

Going back to the point of lower and higher tanked players, does it mean that we don't care if the world No 2 has to play 4 weeks in a row? Or whoever reaches the final or semis. Do we just care about the players who exist in the first round or even don't show up?

Maybe 9 master series is too much. Maybe it should be only 4 . One on each surface and the rest should be up to the player.

oops, of course I meant higher "ranked", not higher tanked. I am sorry for the "wordicide" and "grammaticide" here!

Hi everyone. Most readers come here for tennis so please just keep in mind that as strongly as you might feel about current events, inserting your opinion on them often leads to no-win controversies and stress for the Mod Squad as well as fellow posters. I encourage debate, of course, but all in its right time and place. It should be obvious that when we start having deleted comments and messages for the Mod Squad etc. we're running off the rails.

Andrew,

I am not really suggesting these have all been blowouts. More
like a fait accompli (sp?) - Nadal is going to win; Fed's just
delaying the obvious. What's shocking to me is both players seem
to know it as well. Do not expect that from a player of Federer's
calibre. Compare that to Nadal's play at Wimby last year. He
outplayed/outhustled Roger for all but the last 10 minutes of the
match.

Ed: That Davydenko shirt you linked to is the one he wore against Roddick. Against Nadal he wore a white one, but changed into the red one to receive his trophy.

That Federer shirt is one of my all-time favs. Even though half the time he screwed it up by using grey shorts.

Andrew: you should never publicize your weaknesses, like a service toss that goes haywire. Once word gets out, your opponents will gain in confidence, and that will only compound the problem.

The best approach, as with other temporary male performance “issues”, is just to relax and not think about it too much.

:-)

" But given what happened a couple weeks after Hamburg, I fail to see the great significance."

Sherlock: In the context of what it meant for their subsequent meeting at the French Open, I agree that it was not monumental. However, given Nadal’s clay winning streak at the time, Federer’s poor performance against Nadal at Monte Carlo not that long before Hamburg, the fact that Federer hadn’t beaten him on clay in 5 tries prior to that, and Nadal winning the first set 6-2, I thought that it was a huge win.

Of course, I am saying all this as a Federer fan, so it is not a neutral viewpoint, but that is what the Hamburg win felt like to me.

"The best approach, as with other temporary male performance “issues”, is just to relax and not think about it too much. "

LOL Pierre

zola,

I don't really know how condensed is best. A while ago I tinkered around with a schedule whereby each Slam had a couple of Masters series leading up to it, which of course meant that two would switch to grass prior to Wimbledon, and its not as if its not possible.

Remember, last year the ATP was trying to make Monte Carlo a non-masters series event, and the players vetoed it. Now, Hamburg is in litigation trying to keep its status.

Its pretty clear to me that eight or nine MS events is about right. I'm old enough to remember when tennis, outside of the four Slams, was a total free-for-all, and believe me the quality of match ups and seing the matches we want to see is better now than it was then.

Its also clear that we are in a period where, because the status of a MS event is "organic" rather than planned, the tournaments are simply not spaced apart in an optimal way, really for journeymen or stars.

But we should always remember, that the last couple of years have been a complete reversal of the usual. Normally, the world number one is not getting to the finals of MS events against the world number two, who is 93-1 on clay.

So, to win or get to the finals in MC, Rome, and Hamburg is 15 matches. To get to the semis of all three is 12 matches. Two quarters and a semi is 10 matches, etc.

I'm certainly prepared to say that the schedule should be better. I'm not quite prepared to say that 15 matches in 28 days is patently unfair.

Sam,

We need to keep in mind that Nadal was completely exhausted by
Hamburg. So, in my mind, that win of Roger's had about the
same "real" impact as Roddick's recent win over Federer. It is liberating, but may or may not mean anything.

Well, that's it for spring hardcourt.

In retrospect, I think we can say that Djokovic seems to be the favorite thus far on hardcourts. He accumulated the most ranking points, and he had the highest percentage of games won by a noticeable margin (over 60%, with the next highest being, I believe, 58%).

The top hardcourt players after Djoko seem to be Nadal, Fed, Davy, and Roddick. Despite Fed's failure to make any finals, his percentage of games won is up near the top, and I think it's safe to say that him playing as well as he did despite health problems illustrates he is at the VERY least in the top 5, and may well be the favorite once again once he gets more match play. Blake is the 6th man, in my view, with his percentage of games won up there with the rest of them, and probably the favorite against any other player and a slight dog against the top 5.

Tsonga I think goes in the next tier, along with Youzhny, Nalbandian, Gasquet, Berdych, Ferrer, and Murray. I'd say Tsonga has more upside than a lot of those guys, but also is less consistent. There's a few other players who could maybe tossed in there too, such as Ancic, and Llodra, but with the first batch I'm more confident that their success will transfer to the second hardcourt swing. Well, except maybe Nalbandian -- you never know with him.

I agree the middle part of the season is too compressed, especially in May and June. The biggest problem is the way too short grass season. With only 2 weeks between RG and Wimby, there's no time for really significant tournaments (and not sufficient interval between the two majors). First week is right after gruelling French Open (unfair to RG finalists). Second week is right before Wimby and many top players won't risk playing. So there really is no real pre-Wimby grass season. It would be nice to add a 3rd and 4th week and schedule a grass Masters, like Cincy is before USO on HC.

How to do it? Even though there's a sort of quasi "dead month" after Wimby until Canada (in non-Olympic years), Wimby's timing is way too traditional to tamper with: 4th Monday in June and all that.

My solution: move RG up a week or two. This would likely also make RG less hot and oppressive during the second week. This would probably mean kicking the whole spring schedule ahead starting with Dubai. February is such a dead month anyway, ATP could afford to cut out a week or two, compress the Feb. schedule, or reschedule those tournaments for later in the year. Right now, Melbourne is like a huge enchanted island surrounded by empty seas.

I think the biggest boost that the Hamburg win gave to Federer was in terms of righting the ship. He was coming off a straight set routining in MC and a loss to Volandri and he had just gotten rid of his coach with no (as is obvious now) plan for a replacement. And this was read as a sign of panic and the beginning of the end. Federer need a strong showing at Hamburg and it couldn't have been stronger than that. Hamburg was clearly the upturn in the graph last year.
Of course most of what I am talking about was just perception which might not really have been affecting Federer all that much. But Hamburg was a good antidote for whatever was ailing him at that time

And it did reduce the amount of decline talk that was going around.

"it did reduce the amount of decline talk that was going around."

I guess he needs another win like that soon. ;-)

Pierre: re your 3:23pm - round about my 5th yip, and the yelp of "dammit," they've pretty much worked it out.

As for my other performance issues, I think only Sylvia ought to comment on those... :-)

Sam, nice try re your post on TMF's ending Nadal's 81 match clay streak (ho hum, right?), but Sherlock has gone over to the dark (re Nadal) side, and thus can't be reasoned with ...

Federer is going to roll into Estoril and just plain win the tournament.

And after he wins, he is going to say it is no big deal.

And that is when it all starts.

Can't you people see that?????

Andrew,

I am not really suggesting these have all been blowouts. More
like a fait accompli (sp?) - Nadal is going to win; Fed's just
delaying the obvious. What's shocking to me is both players seem
to know it as well. Do not expect that from a player of Federer's
calibre. Compare that to Nadal's play at Wimby last year. He
outplayed/outhustled Roger for all but the last 10 minutes of the
match.

Amit, every match has that kind of asterisk next to it ... Federer beat Nadal in the Wimby final because Rafa's knees gave out; Novak beat Roger because he had mono; Rafa lost to Youzney because he was exhausted, etc etc.

the history books note that Federer beat Nadal on clay to end his monumental streak; every day is a new day, even Fed's head to head with Roddick didnt save him in Miami, so for tennis players, every day really is like starting over...

look at Sharapova's ups and downs, wasnt she written off after those bad losses at the Open or other Slams several times? now she's on top again, who can know what's ahead for any player?

Davydenko could disappear for months now or go on a hot streak, who's to know? same with Gonzo, Tsonga, baggie, etc., previous wins dont always add up to future wins, that much is clear...

Much as I don't want to intervene again - for the record, Christin, you did berate another poster who was operating within the site rules. Two moderators each independently decided that you were not clearly "politely making a point" as you claim. That's why two moderators intervened. The site rules state that such comments will be deleted. That's exactly what what happened. No bias. We don't play favorites. You're not the first, and you won't be the last.

In your original comment you also managed to effectively berate the moderators as well, over a matter which purely reflects your personal taste. We are, after all, only administering the site rules, not making them. Pete decides on the site rules. We don't expect to be loved, but to first be told to do how our jobs, and next for you to basically say we were wrong to delete your comment but that you'll accept our decision is a little disingenuous, to say the least. If you think you were wrongly moderated, by all means complain to Pete, who has been sent a copy of your comment. He has no interest in having his moderators behave unfairly, and if he has a problem with what we do, he will say so, no question.

We're here to keep the site clean and smooth-running for the benefit of many genuine commenters, and you clearly have no idea how much personal time some of us have voluntarily put into keeping internet nasties out of here. Kicking moderators publicly - and in your case, unfairly, after the deletion - is not good sport.

I don't know why I care about some of this stuff, but certainly, this year IW and Miami were basically one week later than for the last couple of years.

Bearing in mind that we are talking 4 tournaments here (two ATP. two WTA) for some reason I cannot believe that CBS has so much clout that BOTH tournaments were moved up a week simply because CBS requested it for the final of Miami. What about the final of IW?

Not that it might not be true, but I suspect some more banal reason.

I just did a quick Google search, and although I find Rosia's quote of Nadal complaining about it, I find no more info.

Other than an interview with DeVillers proving he has not the slightest clue as to how to market tennis. Its too ridiculous to post or cite here. I mean, really, changing the points awarded to 1,000? Why stop there, how about awarding one million points? Perhaps a bazillion? Better yet, everyone likes apples, let's call the Masters Series the "Apple Series" Sheesh.

Dunlop,
thanks for the reply

It is 20 matches and not 18. The players receive byes forthefirstround but play 5 matches tothe final. It is not like thatthestay inthe samecity and play every otherday. The finalist in Rome has to pack and go to Hamburg on Monday and play another 5 matches starting wednesday.

I don't know what it is if it is not "unfair".

You are right about the players' protest to elimination of Hamburg and MC. But it is because only clay tournaments were downgraded. It seems there is an animosity in ATP towards the clay courts and clay court players.

I remember your proposed schedule last year and I quite like the principle of having master series leading to GSs. I don't understand why we have 2 hard court MS before clay season and nothing before AO. Why 6-7 weeks between AO and IW and one week between a Rome/Hamburg and RG and one week before Wimbledon. I don't understand why there are no MS on grass before Wimbledon.

But if you look at the spread of the hard court MS and GS, these make sense. Everything has been tailored for the convinience of north american hard court players. To me, it is not fair.
And btw, as if that was not enough, now ATP needs to work at the convinience of CBS and college NCAA as well. I don't like it !

Here is the link to the TW Site Rules -
http://tennisworld.typepad.com/tennisworld/2006/07/tw_rules_of_eng.html

Perhaps anyone who is new to the site would do us the courtesy of reading them. Thanks.

Sherlock,

I wanted to respond to your comment,

[That said, I'm not sure I'd rate the Hamburg result as monumental or massive. If Roger wins Paris last year, then yes, it was the obvious springboard. But given what happened a couple weeks after Hamburg, I fail to see the great significance.]

In his own words it gave him the confidence to know that he CAN beat Rafa on clay. Has the capability to, which I'm sure he's doubted off and on over the years. Same, I assume, as Rafa felt about IW match against Blake.

Tim,

Absolutely. But I was talking about a general feeling while watching the match. Again, this could very well just be me. The only time I felt like Fed could beat Nadal on clay was RG'06. All other times, it seemed instinctive that Nadal will find a way to win it.

I guess I would like to see a mirror image of Wimby'07 at RG. Nadal may very well win but Fed should make him truly earn it. God knows he has the tennis skills to do that.

Dunlop,
IW could have been moved simply so it is adjacent to Miami. Otherwise players would have to hang around in the US for whatever downtime there was between those tournies. Still, you make a valid point. Why would the IW TDs care about Miami, much less the CBS schedule?

[Other than an interview with DeVillers proving he has not the slightest clue as to how to market tennis. Its too ridiculous to post or cite here. I mean, really, changing the points awarded to 1,000? Why stop there, how about awarding one million points? Perhaps a bazillion? Better yet, everyone likes apples, let's call the Masters Series the "Apple Series" ]

LOL! I nominate name change to Apple Series!

Dunlop,
just read your comment on CBS/NCAA final. I believe RAfa when he says that. But I understand you want official evidence. best is to look at the ATP calendar and NCAA 2007/2008 dates. They both show on CBS On the same weekend. Meanwhile I will look to see if I can find more links.

Amit: I always find it difficult to distinguish between my general nervousness watching an important Federer match ("Ack! he stoned that volley on game point") and my perception about how likely it is that a player will win a match.

That's one reason why I post probabilities up front. For example, after Federer lost to Roddick, I might have said to myself "well, I expected Roddick to win this one - he's been playing well, and Federer's still not recovered his full conditioning." But I'd actually have been lying to myself - and I did (in print) say that I thought Roddick's chance of winning was better than other matches, but pre-match I thought Federer had a 60% chance of winning.

Amit, are you familiar with our dear Beckham's, ummm, frazzled (and bedazzled) love for The Fed, as she calls him...? (I adore you, Becks, so no manolo throwing! ;)) Listening to her match calling can cause heart failures for Rogiphiles...and this is when he's...winning! Why do I get the feeling you have a bit of that Becks-like love for our Fed...? (Btw, I don't mean to offend, I'm a bit hyperbolic and frivolic, so you'll have to forgive my levity, however unbecoming it is! ;))

Hi Z-Raf -- we chatted about this in the past and a few things came out that makes sense from a historical basis--

Travel used to be much more difficult
when move was made from grass to more clay and hard a sense of a "season" developed and there was some effort to let guys get ready for clay and play on it up to the FO GS

France is pretty tough weather earlier in the spring and same with rain for England. Australia played in their summer as is USO and indoor European hard during cold, rainy weather - so there is some logic to schedule. Wimbledon has to fit into the English season that is crowded and set.

Then there is the established financial interests in play as we also discussed with moving or the promotion and demontion of tourneys.

One could view the crowded clay season as reflecting demand for clay court tourneys in Europe and how popular Rome, MC and the others are to both supporters and players. After all, who would not want to play in most of those locations!

lol i was just reading the WImby final thread and poor Beckham had called the match for Nadal at 2-2 in the fifth, break points... ha!

Andrew, i am exactly the same re wathcing Fed's matches... i thought he would come up with the good as usual, but when he blew that first forehand in the breaker, i thought it was trouble..then when he gets back to 3-4 with two genius shots, i thought 'here he comes!' and then he shanks a forehand..this is lack of match toughness IMO...he can work through this in Estoril...

also andrew glad to see you're eluding MrsSanta's hired thugs, at least for now!

I also think the compressed clay schedule helped Rafa when he was younger in that he got hot and played a slew of very important and point rich tourneys in a row and never let up. Perhaps now he is a little older with the recovery issues he would like them spaced makes sense, but I think the compression helped him establish himself earlier in his 81 match run. I think it was harder to catch him on an off day once he got rolling.

I look forward to the Monday Net Post each week. Thanks!

Winston-Salem- I went to the DC last year in WS. My children want to go back just to eat hot Krispy Kreme doughnuts. I think the KK headquarters is in WS.

If I were Guy Forget I'd play Llodra and Mathieu for singles and doubles. Gasquet and Tsonga need a rest ( of course, I'm hoping Guy Forget reads this and follows my advice...I want the USA to win!)

Go USA!

Rafa complaining about NCAA BBall? Say it aint so Rafito, you were always a man amongst boys before. This new whining doesn't become you. I predict a loss on clay.

Tim: in the past, something like 80% of the time, Federer has pulled out the tight match. This time he didn't.

Some folks (I think not you) want to see the Fall, the Decline, the Slump in this. I don't. There are two better explanations: a) some days you eat the bear, some days the bear eats you. Play enough tight matches, and you'll use a few. b) Federer is recovering from a loss of conditioning induced by illness. Nothing about the first four months of the season can be judged without working that factor in.

BTW, MrsSanta and the WTA Top Ten may be biding their time, waiting for their moment to strike, like Chigurrh in "No Country For Old Men."

Andrew/Freudian slip,

You're right :) My fondness for Federer absolutely clouds my judgment when he is playing most players and I exaggarate every little missed volley. However, I am substantially less critical when he plays Nadal, since I am terribly fond of Nadal as well. I just want to see Fed push Nadal to the brink at RG, much like Wimby 07. Whoever wins, I would like to see that tennis match.

For some reason, there are 2 other guys I like to see Fed go toe to toe with. Marat and Nalby. Blasphemous, I know :)...but that would be some serious shotmaking.

Attention K-Mart shoppers

Chris and Martina are being interviewed together on Oprah ,Tues.

I was watching some old Fed on YouTube, and the self possessed calm confidence on his face is just scary...think 04 Australian Open, he destroyed Marat... not a shred of nerves, just winners...im waiting for that Fed to be back, the last sighting was in Shanghai...

Tokyo Tom,
I think it is pretty obvious that when a player complains about the compactness of a schedule, he is not doing it just to say something. Obviously it bothers Rafa and the other European clay court players. So, I don't think that Rafa would have complained about the schedule if it benefited him. he said last year his knee was numb from injections in RG. His pictures at Hamburg show how tired he was. why it is fair, is beyond me.
Seriously if Roger had to play 4 tournaments week after week, would you be happy with that?
Last year at least they had one week off. This year that is gone too. Rafa has to either forfeit his points in Barcelona and HAmburg and take a rest ( 650 points), or has to come to RG and Wimbledon with a beat up body. All when the hard court tournaments are all spread out throughout the year.

I find this very biased and very unfair.

I really think Nadal this year on clay is going to get tested a lot, Djoker is a real threat, Davyd for sure as well, Fed always is there, and even Ferrer and Nalbie if he ever has to play them are real threats too ...

I know ill get killed for this, but the list of strong hard courters is about double that of strong clay courters, as Roddick, Tsonga, Blake, etc., just have no clay game at all, and the Euro clay courters that are good on clay arent great on clay, no threat to Rafa..

Sam, Ptenisnet, Sher, excellent thoughts on the Hamburg issue.

When I think of it as a stand alone event, not tied to the French, I can see more of your point. Though I think that even if he loses Hamburg, he's still right back on top two weeks later when he steps on the green turf again.

I guess, too, that I'm at a bit of a disadvantage in the argument because I think most streaks are so incredibly overrated. One that does REALLY impress me is Lendl's 8? straight USO finals. That's still crazy to me whenever I think about it. But Nadal's clay streak, while of course very impressive, just doesn't give me the "wow" factor. The consecutive FO's are what flips my bippy. If he had lost some non-FO clay match along the way in that time span, it wouldn't really matter to me.

Andrew! I could not agree more about the Fed. I've been telling everyone that this might be the best clay season ever for him. He's showing up hungry + in need of match time. There's nothing like clay for grinding in match time, and if he's been focusing on conditioning after his illness, he might just be peaking for dirt!

I'd love for him to win Roland Garros and put all the nattering nabobs of negativity to rest. :-)

Ummm. Of course I meant "Ed". I guess the bug of confusing you with Pete early in the comments threw me further off than I knew. :8)

First, the chatter concerning The Fed's demise to number 2 never includes the amount of tournaments he enters compared to the other guys. 2 & 3 currently hold 4 more tourneys then He.

Second, I agree with the commentor above, the Fed is strategizing for the dirt. Slacking the rope a bit with these losses, no?

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Dullop/ptenisnet: as I noted yesterday, the Indian Wells TD is on the ATP Board. so perhaps was somewhat involved in the scheduling shuffle/might have taken a view that it was no skin off his nose to help out Miami by moving back a week?

The entire 2008 schedule got messed up, not just the clay season. Alot of tournaments got moved up or changed. The Canadian and Cincy TMS moved up two weeks and now there is nary a break after Wimbledon. All the players are basically playing nonstop between IW and the US Open. No doubt it is going to be tough, but it is going to be tough for everyone, not just Nadal.

Tim,
Here is a name that is not on the level of Rafa but could beat Rafa is Rafa has an off day on clay. Name is Nicolas Almagro(Andrew 2008 pick to shine). He is trying to 3-peat Valcenia which is pretty decent since some of the top players play there(ie-Ferrer) and had a great Latin America swing going 14-1 and winning Costa de Sauipe(beat Moya in 3 set thriller) and Acapulco (beat Nalbandian serving double digits in aces).