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« Your Call May 20 Your Call May 21 »
Comfort Sport
Posted 05/20/2008 @ 1 :52 PM

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Like most of you, I've been contemplating the recent matches in Hamburg, specifically the Roger Federer vs. Rafael Nadal final, which puts me in danger of being a two-channel receiver in a 750-channel digital-cable world. Sure, there are plenty of other things to write about, and I hope the subjects of my recent posts showed it. But sometimes Roger and Rafa are, like death and taxes (care to assign roles?), impossible to avoid.

In general, I have a perverse reaction to the clay-court season, and lest you think it's yet another of my terrible, troglodyte biases, it's no different from my reaction to the U.S. Open hard court series. Ironically, these "road to" tournaments are warm-ups; significant, remunerative, eagerly and closely watched and exciting, but still warm-ups. Roger Federer fans might call them "information gathering" opportunities; Rafael Nadal fans might call them chances to make hay while the sun shines. I call them comfort sport for the needy  - it's a long stretch between the Australian Open and Paris!

But the fact that TMF and Jet Boy are never more dominant fixtures in the tennis imagination than during May is telling. I'm keeping my powder dry, but they clearly are not. And while Novak Djokovic's bombastic statement in Rome, and the earlier antics of Radek Stepanek and Juan Carlos Ferrero certainly were eye-catching, I'm not sure they were over-freighted with significance (that's always the problem with "road to" events; what if you arrive at the end of that road after an epic journey only to discover that they lost your hotel reservations?) In fact, unless you buy a lot of the armchair hokum, or passionately support the wealth-distribution scheme that is the ATP Tour/calendar, the most intriguing and lasting outcome of the clay-court season comes down to this: it provides valuable filler for the greatest value-added feature in tennis - rivalry.

I started thinking along those lines after writing my most recent ESPN post on Monday morning, in which I listed the male and female winners on spring clay-court circuit. The women's champion's roll was a hodge-podge that featured exactly one Top Five player (Jelena Jankovic) and no Grand Slam title winners. Among the men, the blue-chip rogue's gallery was led by Federer, Nadal and Djokovic. Ironically, the ancient refrain that women's tennis lacks depth has been demolished, although not exactly the way everyone hoped (by competitive parity). The impression we're left with is that the very concept of a meaningful WTA Tour is hollow.

By contrast, the ubiquity of the three men mentioned above (the "trivarlry", as someone has described it) suggests that the men's game is being both dominated and chugging along under a great head of steam. In other words, maybe Pete Sampras was right when, before Roger and Rafael discovered each other, he had a one word answer for what tennis needs: "rivalry." It has that now - boy, does it ever.

In pinning TMF to the mat in Hamburg, Nadal improved his head-to-head lead to 10-6 - not exactly Sampras vs. Andre Agassi territory (Sampras led their final H2H, 20-14) but getting there, given the age factors. Projected outward, Nadal might end up with a similar margin, but that's where stats and precentages can fail you. The intensity of the rivalry has increased in recent years. Between Miami of 2004 and Roland Garros of 2006, Nadal won 6 of 7 matches and, at one point, five in a row.

But since the start of 2007, Federer has closed the gap (just writing the words feels, well, weird). Nadal  has his nose out in front, but only by 4-3 mark. That e number is deceptive, because Federer gets into position to play Nadal on clay more frequently than Nadal can slash his way to finals on harder surfaces, especially indoor carpet or outdoor hard. But let's leave the "fair world" debate for another time. Federer has a 5-2 lead on surfaces other than clay, and Nadal hasn't take a match on a surface other than clay since very early in 2006 (at Dubai).

These numbers underscore the importance of surface, which is nothing new when it comes to classic rivalries. Andre never could beat Pete at Wimbledon or the U.S. Open, but he won every battle they joined at the other two majors. Incidentally, Australian hard (back then, it was Rebound Ace) served Agassi much like grass serves Nadal. Is it any less surprising that Pete Sampras neither liked nor performed particularly well - relatively speaking, anyway - on Rebound Ace than that Nadal has turned into such a grass-stained warrior? Rivalries are partly turf wars, and Nadal's most novel achievement has to be put in terms of an oxymoron to be fully appreciated: He's engaged in a heated rivalry with a man who's been accused of utterly dominating his sport.  As they say, Hey, How did he do that?

He did it by coming to grips with the grass court game, is how. And while Jet Boy hasn't beaten Federer on grass, it's those two consecutive Wimbledon finals (2006 and '07) that really lifted the rivalry to a higher plane. Were it not for those battles, especially the most recent, riveting one, you could argue that Nadal was nothing more (or less) than an accomplished guerrilla warrior, harassing the equivalent of a tennis superpower. The situation might have grown tedious for everyone but Nadal fanatics. So while Nadal may not take great comfort out of his two failed challenges at Wimbledon, we can.

Among other things, this state of affairs underscores a unique and glorious aspect of tennis: the importance of surface. This is not something to be taken lightly, because it's surface  - perhaps surface only - that prevents tennis from becoming too much of a sporting poster-child for the worst elements of what can loosely be called globalization - uniformity, conformity, a depressing sameness to tennis courts, to match what already is, to me, anyway, a depressing sameness of indoor venues, the players dress (thanks, Nike, Adidas, et al!!) and public personae and, to an increasing degree, their technique and style. Is there a person on this earth more "international" by the most common standards than Roger Federer (if there is, the person's name ends in "vic" - and her first name isn't Novak).

This multi-surface tradition in tennis is both unique in pro sports and by no means forced on the game. In baseball, watering down the infield (to slow the ball) leaves a team open to strident accusations of Belichikism, even though the ploy doesn't come close to affecting a baseball the way different court surfaces affect tennis balls, or shots. When was the last time you saw a basketball court that looked significantly different from any other one? Or saw an NBA game played - yikes! - outdoors, under lights with genuine moths zipping around, much like they do in the vast majority of places where amateurs play the game. Charlie Passarell and Ray Moore, the masterminds of Indian Wells, are promoting an exhibition NBA game at the Indian Wells Tennis Garden this fall. A few weeks ago Charlie told me, "The most surprising thing was the reaction of the players. They were ecstatic, they said they couldn't want to play under those conditions."

Lingering provincialism, as in the French Open's decision to retain a clay surface at a time (the late 1970s) when the survival of a relevant clay-court game was by no means a given, has been a cornucopia, and one element spilling out of it is the Federer-Nadal rivalry. So while I'm still trying to keep my powder dry for Roland Garros, here are a few things I've seen along the red-dirt road:  The rivalry, at least on clay, has been reduced and simmered and further boiled down and may finally have yielded up its essence. It turns out to be an element amusingly like the one that dominates the battle between a couple of 3.0 slashers down at the public high school's courts. Who's going to get to the backhand?  It's almost embarrassingly simple, but I'll repeat it anyway: Who's going to get to the backhand?  If Federer can find Nadal's backhand, all other things being equal, he's got a shot. But if Nadal can make that corner inaccessible, forget about it. Game over.

Tmf_2 More importantly, and this is the dominant theme of the rivals' most recent battles, Federer is in deep doo-doo if Nadal can get to his backhand and hammer away. It's over. Rob Federer of his forehand and allow Nadal to employ his own and there can be no good outcome for TMF. This implicitly restates the significance of a key element that is so obvious it rarely gets mentioned anymore. Nadal is a left-hander (duh!). The advantage isn't supposed to be so critical, not at this level. But the way these two caballeros match up, it is - no use questioning it.

Nadal's most powerful forehand most naturally wants to find TMF's backhand, and the facility with which Nadal - like most of today's players - can also go down the down-the-line or inside-out, instead of the natural way, cross-court, only serves to keep Federer that much more honest,that much more off-balance.  A lefty against a righty when the stakes are the backhand corner is, all other things being equal, no match at all.

But it makes for a hail of a rivalry.

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Comments

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first!

Pete,
Agree that the WTA clay season was not that great but 2 things did come out:
(1) Dinara Safina winning Berlin beating Justine Henin, Serena Williams, and Elena Dementieva along the way.
(2) The possible emergence of Alize Cornet. Out of her 20 wins(per WTA website), 18 of them are on clay. She made 2 finals(Pennetta in Acapulco and Jankovic in Rome) and 2 semifinals(Cibulkova in Amelia Island and Serena Williams in Charleston). However, can you imagine the enormous pressure that she is about to go through with the French tennis community.

Even though the Top 3 dominates the ATP, there is more excitement happening:
(1) Stanislas Wawrinka - Finalist in Rome(Djokovic)
(2) David Ferrer - Finalist in Barcelona(Nadal), winning Valencia rallying from a double break lead in the deciding set against Almagro
(3) Nicolas Almagro - Finalist in Valencia(Ferrer), winning Costa do Sauipe(Moya) and Acapulco(Nalbandian)
(4) Roger "Be Quiet" comment in Monte Carlo.
(5) Rafael shot of the tournament(and clay season) against Nikolay in Monte Carlo.

Even though the field in the WTA is more wide open than the ATP, the ATP has more electricity going to the French Open on Sunday.

Good points, Master Ace. . .

Hi Pete! Thanks for a very enjoyable read. Will you be in Paris for Roland Garros?

nice work, I agree with you about wta clay season

(did anybody watch the recent video of eurosport (watts zap) about Nadal, nole, ana and sharapova? too funny)

Hi AmyLu- yes, second week at both RG and Wimbledon, as usual

Pete, I like the "Quick hits". Good idea.

The lefty/righty combination, on the face of it, shouldn't matter too much, other things being equal. This is because of the symmetrical nature of tennis play.

F can hit to N's backhand, just as N can hit to F's. So other things clearly aren't equal.

What is the big issue? Here are some possibilities:

a) fewer lefties than righties, so lefties learn to play righties more thoroughly than the reverse. Possible, but after multiple matches, probably not significant.

b) the scoring mechanism. Nadal can slice wide on BPs and game points: Federer can only do this on deuce points. Only matters if you believe that the receiver is more likely to choke on BP than the server. Hard to see this as structural.

c) Nadal's BH is better than Federer's: certainly a contender - Nadal hits the flattened 2H BH as well as anyone (possibly not named Nalbandian).

d) Nadal plays a lower risk game than Federer: maybe something here too - Nadal has the clay court mentality "I can hit the same spot over and over and be happy. Give me a short ball, point over." Federer's less happy just staying in the point, and Nadal's retrieving ability and passing ability tips the risk/reward balance (just) in his favor. But this is not a lefty/righty thing. What may be the case, though, is that if Nadal were a righty his looping FHs would set up more of a normal CC exchange.

Don't have any fundamental answers, just some questions.

Bodo,

Are you ever going to analyze the match themselves? or are you just going to keep on making the whole thing boring with funny words and expressions like "armchair hokum", "cornucopia" or "oxymoron"? Please analyze the matches! like the SF's between Nadal and Djoko (which would be totally worth it) and provide opinion and insight as that it what we tennis fans crave the most...

Pete, I'm very glad you'll be going again. Many of my favorite posts have been ones you've done, at a tournament.

With Justine only playing Berlin, and then retiring, the clay season for me on the women's side has been beyond strange this year. I always thought I liked parity (unless my favorite is dominating, of course), but I realized with the absence of Justine that that's not really true. I was never really a fan of Justine, but her presence has sorely been missed by me from the events, and I realized it's because I used Justine as the measuring stick against which everyone else's performance was measured. And with Justine gone, I'm not quite sure who the measuring stick is on clay in the WTA. If that makes any sense.

LOL, TMC does make Federer resemble Robert DeNiro.

Andrew: Good questions. Item d sounds like the "shot tolerance" topic revisited.

Thanks, Pete. We have been anxiously awaiting your thoughts on Hamburg and Paris upcoming.

One question about your last sentence: Doesn't the lefty v. righty matchup also give Federer the opportunity to use his crosscourt forehand to attack Nadal's BH corner? This may be a very dumb question, but don't both men have that natural opportunity given the matchup?

Lo S - Naw, what I am going to analyze, though, is why readers who don't like "funny" words or the subjects of these posts gobble them up as soon as they're printed and jump up as soon as they finish to try to grab some attention.

Nice, thanks Pete. And also like the "Quick hits."

I'd like to know what you think about Federer attacking the Nadal forehand? He has had some success there.

Lo Svizzero, you get to the point man!

I gotta admit, since pretty much Charleston I've been paying 0 attention to the WTA Tour (save the Henin stuff).

Jenn, it's actually a good question but remember that as both leftys and rightys play mostly rightys, the right-hander must alter his customary game play and comfort zone. . .

Wait, oxymoron is a funny word?

"Cornucopia"

LOL!

I think there are (at least) two advantages that Nadal's clay game has over Federer's:
1. Nadal's two-hander is more consistent than Fed's BH because two hands are better than one
2. Nadal creates sharper cross-court angles than Fed because he uses more topspin.
Clay accentuates the effectiveness of these factors.
all imho...

Let's face it, the beauty and grace of the WTA left with the Queen and all that loser Larry Scott can say is that, "we won't lose any sleep over it." Does anyone wonder why women's tennis is in such bad shape, well look at the CEO. The number one player in the world leaves and this is what he has to say. He's a first class jerk. Go Justine, real world's #1!

Seriously though...

I'd much rather to read you analysis about Nadal's matches against Djokovic and Federer in the SF's and F respectively to see what your opinion on this specific subject is. What do you think Djokovic and Federer could do in their next match against Nadal on clay to succeed against him and stuff like that without making this whole thing too wordy.

Syd - some variation on that might work, and there's a lot to be said - in some cases and with some players - for attacking their strength. Aranxta Sanchez-Vicario once beat Steffi Graf in Paris because she went right to the forehand, and was athletic enough to keep the ball in play enough to exploit an interesting aspect of Steffi's game: she liked to use her forehand as a point-ender, and, at least in that match, tended to go for too much, too soon, after hitting two, three forehands in a row. It was an approach that should have been used more often. Having said that, Nadal is not Graf.The real problem for TMF would be having to somehow get to Nadal's forehand with his own backhand, because that's where Nadal would be going at every forehand chance. . .

Well, Svizzero, pardon me for forgetting that it's your planet. Let me run right out and rewrite this to conform to your personal desires.

Pete, count me as one of the eager gobblers of your posts as soon as they come out.

Moderator,

Back from a mini-holiday I want to thank you for sorting out the misunderstanding with the other Marian now M. Sorry M, I personally don't mind but rules are rules and by the way I'm a "she".

I find difficult to read another word about Roger and Rafa and their matching up but thanks, Pete, for the article. I'll wait for the draw in Paris before accepting some friends invitation to watch it live again. I almost went to Hamburg for the final and boy I'm glad I changed my mind for another destination.

I don't see anybody interested in taking a stance towards a longer and better grass-season. In a lot of European countries it wouldn't be a problem to hold an MS grass tournament even in the summer and you know it's more than the provincialism of clay and Paris. Grass is: back to basis.

Lol Pete, I think we have a shared crush on the one with the last name ending "vic". I wish someone would ask Fed and Nadal to explain in a little more detail (for the more discerning fan :)), what the hail goes on in their matches. Comparing it to "3.0 slashers" maybe right, but I feel a little too simple.

what this guy is writting about ... lots of useless information.

I'm quite bored with endless analyses of how Federer can beat Nadal on clay. Surely there are enough of those out there already.
(BTW, oxymoron is my favourite word.)

Thanks much Pete;

Cool information about Sanchez-Vicario v. Graf. I'm hoping that Roger can create some opportunities to put pressure onto the Nadal forehand return...

Hey Pete! I could definitely use some more of your posts man, keep 'em coming. Cannot wait for RG! Vamos Nadal!

I've always thought that the matchup comes down to backhands, and Nadal's is stronger, sharper, and more consistent than Federer's, although Federer's is more artistic and technically superior. But brawn trumps beauty in this matchup, and the surface enhances this difference. Seems you can only rush Nadal's bh on hc. Remember your post about natural surfaces vs manufactured ones? Looks like Nadal might have read it too.

To Pete's critics...Were you all seriously expecting another rehash/analysis of the match? The first thing to learn about Pete is that he doesn't say anything, unless he's got something interesting to say. The function of this article is to tell you what the French prelude serves as to him (and us) as fans. I'd like anyone without the last name Tignor to try to come up with something original about the match...the point is nobody knows what the hail went down in Hamburg.

Cornucopia is actually a foodie hall in Dublin, Ireland!

Funny thing, I could only follow the game on the live scoreboard, which is nerve wracking in itself. It seems so equal, almost dead same number of points until the final set. But Nadal beat both Roger and Novak pulling away in the third set. His serve seems most dominant now and even just watching on the live scoreboard I could smell Federer's dread as he was reeled in.

Am I the only one who thinks Nadal approaches these summer matches with Federer with the exact same physical relish that Pistol Pete brought to court in big matches versus Agassi? It's impressive to watch, isn't it, a guy like Nadal pumping big forehands with great assurance and unnerving the world's number one?

Nadal is not a lefty - he is a righty playing left handed and there is a difference. Many lefty guys - myself included- tend to be very left handed. A teaching pro I plays doubles with some keeps making this point. That Nadal, actually has two forehands is an odd way. His left handed forehand- he has learned over time- is not exactly something many people hit so unusual and his two handed back hand - he makes the point of thinking of the two hander as a righty forehand with the right hand executing a forehand swing and the left hand providing stability.

Add to the fact most guys hate playing leftys to begin with imagine playing a righty who plays left handed and we have one odd game played by a "beast" physically who never gives up and you have Rafa.

Guys get into patterns under stress and with a lefty, they have to break confortable patterns and think more about shot selection. We both also think that can make a difference when time is short under pressure on particular points whereas the lefty mostly plays the dominant pattern against right handed guys.

My friend also adds that the weakness of Uncle Toni's experiment comes out in Rafa's left handed serve, given he is a natural right hander - that must be a bit odd but probably helps his toss consistency. But it is not a "natural" lefty serve.

Why thank-you, Evie, what a nice thing to say. . .

Kenneth, very interesting observations about the "battle of the backhands"

Marian, I have a TW namesake - evie (lowercase). I am pretty sure I posted first. I am an occasional though, so I guess it is fine. And it probably is fine for her too.

Pete,

That was a good read, and excellent point. Uncle Toni could apperantly see the future when he decided to make a lefty out or Rafa.

Sigh. I had a nice little daydream about the day after RG final, in which Roger wins and your post the next day is titled "GOAT!'

"Sigh. I had a nice little daydream about the day after RG final, in which Roger wins and your post the next day is titled "GOAT!'"

I had that one too, and followed it up with a daydream about pigs flying over the frozen tundra of hell :(

Evie,
I don't post much either and as I wrote to the other Marian (I think from Canada) I don't personally mind especially taking into account that the other Marian knows English and tennis far better than I do. I stepped in because the other Marian isn't a fan of Roger (I think) but mostly because the other Marian is a "he".
There are limits to everything and being called a "he" was just was too much.
Carry on with tennis, please, I have to prepare dinner.

I don't now which I prefer, the smile OR's post bought to my face along with a sense of how nice it would be to actually make someone else's dream come true, or the coke-out-the-nose laugh from Grant's follow-on. . .

Dismissing everything except Grand Slam tournaments as foreplay is quite ridiculous. This is a circuit after all and every tournament counts. I couldn't agree more though, that what makes tennis exciting is that it's played on different surfaces, which is why I cannot understand de Villiers insistance in trying to get rid of everything but hardcourts... to pander to the one-court limited skill Americans and their corporate interests I suppose. I think there is a case for an equal number of top tournaments to be played on each, and that includes grass, each with their own well-defined 'season'.

One of Nadal's advantages is that nobody can defend from his backhand side as well as he does. He's got the footwork to run around his backhand down to an art form. I noticed on many points Roger trying to hit to Nadal's bachhand only for Rafa to hit a double-handed backhand up the line to Federer's own backhand. Then when Roger tried to hit a backhand down-the-line right back to Rafa's backhand, Nadal was more than ready to run around the backhand to bring his monster forehand into play.

Rafa is a left-handed player, but don't forget he's a natural righty. This gives him added control for those crosscourt and down-the-line backhands. How many times have I heard the commentators say the same thing? "Not a good idea trying to break down Nadal's backhand. It's rock solid." etc...

Flush the coke, Pete, it'll mess up your backhand.

I predict a major upset at this year's French Open! No, not Federer beating Nadal, but maybe a big hitter like Fernando Gonzalez or Nalbandian finding their range and knocking over someone's shopping bags...

"Am I the only one who thinks Nadal approaches these summer matches with Federer with the exact same physical relish that Pistol Pete brought to court in big matches versus Agassi?"

I think Nadal does approach them like that. Why shouldn't he? He knows he has the advantage on clay. Don't you think Federer feels the same way on a hardcourt? Look at the way Federer played Nadal at the last two TMC - especially last year. Nadal didn't have a chance. Even at Wimbledon, you can tell that Federer has the innate confidence to hit the winning shots when he needs to. Federer does not have that innate sense on clay, Nadal does.

In this rivalry, surface does make a huge difference and as long as Federer continues to make it to clay finals more than Nadal does on other surfaces, the 'misleading' H2H will continue.

Kieran, spoken like a man of experience. . . you know, I've been waiting for something seismic to happen at RG for some time now meself. . .

Hi Alexis,

I don't think the H2H is misleading at all. Remember, Nadal's glory years should be all still ahead of him, whereas Federer's been at his peak for the last four years. It could be that this year sees Nadal finish his apprenticeship and bring it home at Wimbledon and the US Open.

Oh yeah, Mitch, they're falling all over themselves at the ATP to create courts for "limited-skill Americans and their corporate interests. . ." it's obvious that that's where the game is going!

Papo: I've also seen Federer give Rafa fits by stringing together a number of just out of this world forehand zingers off the baseline; The problem is, he can't keep it up. I think Steve wrote something like that. Roger hasn't found the wherewithall to keep up that level of form over three, or even two matches. Roger has the strength, and he has the tools, but he's only human. So...as a Fed fan, I have to wait for Rafa to realize that he's only human too.

Hi Pete,

Maybe something seismic could happen at Wimbledon, also. When was the last real upset at a Men's GS? Karlovic over Hewitt? Phillopoussis over Sampras in Australia? Maybe Federer is due an unfortunate offday? It could happen, and I DON'T mean being beaten by the world number 3, though I'd love to see him reach the finals at both RG and Wimbledon.

"Wait, oxymoron is a funny word?"

Grant: Just the last 5 letters.

Great stuff, Pete! Smiling here, b/c I just posted at your Comrade-in-Blog's place and I now realize after coming here and reading your latest post that there's a reason you do what you do (write, and primarily about tennis) and I don't! The Rafa-Roger Rivalry is such a match-up/turf-war/battle of the backhand/lefty v righty matter. All of these things were running through my head, but I didn't *say* any of 'em. I'm laughing at myself! Thank goodness we have you to write for us. :)

I think at least a week has gone by since I last said: GRANT RAAAAWWWWWKS!

You know what, I don't care what anybody thinks, to me Nadal deserves more credit. He is only 21 and has over 5500 points in the ATP rankings. He has won 3 grand slams and he is only 21!!!

Federer @ 21 only had 1 grand slam.

Im not saying Nadal will win 14 grand slams, but this guy is good and I see him winning wimbledon at least twice in his career. I also see him improving in other surfaces.

I mean look how much Federer has improved in the last couple of years on clay.

Nadal will also improve on hard surfaces.

Nadal has a total of 26 single titles, did I mention he is 21!!!

To me he is #1 right now. His stamina, his desire to win are just amazing. coming from 1-5 in hamburg to beat the set 7-5 is amazing.

I don't want to sound pesimistic but you know what happens to all the players that beat Roger. Enough said!

Doh! I feel like such a fetish junkie speculating on upsets by part-time top-tenners when we have such a juicy, be-real, trio snarling for the top spot.

Nadal is NOT really a 'natural' righty, his mental processing is more complex than that: he's a very very left-footed football player, for example, which is the main reason Toni decided on him using his left hand. The others were that he was equally pathetic at serving with either hand at that tender age, according to Toni, and that he himself didn't really care which one he used.

"I don't think the H2H is misleading at all. "

I put "misleading" in quotes for a reason. As Pete hinted at in his post, the fact that Federer is good enough to make clay finals has in effect hurt his H2H with Nadal. We expect Nadal to win on clay as he is the better clay player. Federer is the favorite on other surfaces and leads the H2H there. So as long as they play more times on clay and the surface-specialist wins, Nadal will always lead the H2H.

If they played equal amounts on clay and other surfaces, the H2H would be more even. So someday, If Nadal starts making more hardcourt finals, or if Federer gets worse on clay and doesn't make clay finals anymore...wouldn't the H2H even out? Yes it would.

The H2H number is not always the most telling factor.

"But since the start of 2007, Federer has closed the gap (just writing the words feels, well, weird). Nadal has his nose out in front, but only by 4-3 mark. That e number is deceptive, because Federer gets into position to play Nadal on clay more frequently than Nadal can slash his way to finals on harder surfaces, especially indoor carpet or outdoor hard. But let's leave the "fair world" debate for another time. Federer has a 5-2 lead on surfaces other than clay, and Nadal hasn't take a match on a surface other than clay since very early in 2006 (at Dubai)."

I think since 2007 Nadal and Federer not meeting on hardcourts is as much due to Federer as it is due to Nadal. Nadal reached the finals of IW and Paris last year. Federer reached Montreal, Cincinnati and Madrid. This year Nadal reached Miami final, Fed was missing from the final there. I am just looking at the Masters Series here though. Its obvious Fed will get to more finals on hard than Nadal but it hasn't been entirely one-sided as in 2006.

Andrew:

"b) the scoring mechanism. Nadal can slice wide on BPs and game points: Federer can only do this on deuce points. Only matters if you believe that the receiver is more likely to choke on BP than the server. Hard to see this as structural."

I think this has a huge bearing on the tactics used by Nadal to save his break points or take advantage of game points, once it goes to deuce.

E.g 1: Wimbledon 2007 finals from the end of the first set, Nadal pretty much kept going to Fed's backhand on the points started on the ad court. Nadal won most almost all of them on his serve. Thereby he was not broken from after game 2 in the first set till game 6 in the final set.

E.g 2: Consider the set point in the first set in 2008 Hamburg Finals on the ad court, Fed made a good serve to Nadal's forehand, got a relatively awkward volley which he shanked.

However that being said, I think at his level, Federer should be able to find an answer to this (both the serving on big points and the return).

The problem is that Federer is choking more and more these days (not just against Nadal - 2008 AO semis he was up 5-3 receiving at 0-30 missing closing out, serving for the set at 5-4 and missed it again, had set point in the third when receiving and missed it). That coupled with Nadal's fantastic fighting spirit from any position, he is pretty much unbeatable.

Alexis, you are right. The H2H on the surface in question is the most telling factor about what might happen in a given match, not the overall H2H on all surfaces.

Hi Alexis,

Good point, but if we remove Federer's results on grass - where he's as at home as Nadal is on clay - that leaves Federer ahead 3-2 on hard surfaces. Not a great return against a 21 year old who's mooching around still learning the game, no?

Keiran: Nadal is 21, but in dog years.

Hi Syd, he's a quick study alright, but clearly still wet behind the ears. He's coming up fast on hardcourts, but basically by amping down his natural claycourt tendencies. He's a puncher who's still learning that he needs to be a boxer, occasionally.

Michael, Nadal is always #1 during the clay season. I find it so funny how every year the same thing happens. Nadal dominates the clay season and he's the best thing since sliced bread and Federer sucks. Then Wimbledon comes and Federer is again the best-of-the-best and Nadal is fantastic for doing so well on clay. Then the second half of the year comes and Federer does his consistent stuff and Nadal doesn't win another title. And then all the doom-and-gloom crap about Nadal being washed up and fading away happens. That is until the clay season starts and we go through this same scenario again. It's like a broken record.

Of course this year Djokovic is in the mix.

As for your other point. Yes, 3 GS at age 21 is great. Federer was a late-bloomer. But early or late success does not predict anything. We've seen plenty of players with early success who faded away quickly. We've seen players who won late not do anything of consequence after that. We don't know if Nadal will get to double-digit GS titles. No one could have predicted that Federer would go on to win 12 after his initial one in 2003. You just don't know.

"is fantastic for doing so well on clay."

I meant to say "Nadal is fantastic for doing so well on GRASS"

Alexis: Yes, that's what I think too. We can't know how long Nadal is going to go on, he's only 21; but still has a lot of hard mileage on his body. I hope he goes far, but we'll just have to hang around to see.

awh Syd but why would you say that "Nadal is 21, but in dog years.". I don't think that is a very nice thing to say :(

**the scoring mechanism. Nadal can slice wide on BPs and game points: Federer can only do this on deuce points. Only matters if you believe that the receiver is more likely to choke on BP than the server. Hard to see this as structural.**

Can a tennis expert (Andrew) explain that to me? Why can't Roger slice wide on BP and GP? I've heard that before, and I feel like it is a basic thing I just don't get regarding serving.

"We've seen plenty of players with early success who faded away quickly. We've seen players who won late not do anything of consequence after that"

Is that so?

Please name "all these" great number of players who had won 3 GS by 21... or better yet who had won 3 GS in a row by 21.

"by age 21" the only player with a comparable record to this guy is Borg.


Boris Becker. I really enjoy your posts 1963USCtennis.

Boris was born 11-22-67

Mats Wilander

"Good point, but if we remove Federer's results on grass - where he's as at home as Nadal is on clay - that leaves Federer ahead 3-2 on hard surfaces. Not a great return against a 21 year old who's mooching around still learning the game, no?"

Oh I think Federer more than holds his own. Besides Nadal has a whole lot more to worry about than Federer. He may be the man on clay but he's got Djokovic now. Once RG is over, he can't afford to do his 'no title for 8 months' again.

Wimbledon 85-86-89, US Open 89; Masters 88 incredible final versus Lendl.

I haven't read all the comments yet. But Andy Murray's comment about playing Nadal during this past week was that it's like playing someone who possesses two forehands.

Nadal's age is something that I think is not accounted for enough in articles (Mr. Bodo's being a welcome exception). His ascendancy was so fast (from January to June in 2005, half a year!) that he's started to seem like a seasoned veteran. Granted he's a multiple slam winner at this point who has many, many wins under his belt, but injuries aside, I think Nadal will continue to improve on hard courts.

I look forward to the surface wars being year round.

Hi Alexis,

That's very true, but his "no title for 8 months" only looks bad because of his high standards. But he's learning fast, and I think he'll improve on that, hopefully this year. Nadal's no perfect player, but if he gets to grips with other surfaces (and he surely will) then Federer's post Wimbledon final quip that Nadal will win everything may well seem prophetic.

Master Ace, you're so classy.
"...
(4)Roger "Be Quiet" comment.
"
wow. man, wow. what a impression from whole season. some player's very classy and very brave (one-sided) interaction with the audience who make a correct disapproval of judge's wrong decision. and p. bodo is in ecstasy, off course (god damn it, why i wasn't say that?!). i mean, wow. and coincidently that was same no-cojones player (i really adore his talent and game, and personality most of the time) who is deaf quiet when suffer holly injustice in the form of silly cords and lines over and over again. not to mention countless 140 db vamoses in his face, furry fists and jumps (from one, all-cojones man). but my people have one proverb about that: "i mis ostri k.... na siroce" - meaning literally "and mouse is capable to grind his-male-thing for the orphan child". especially verbally, from some good distance. so vamos mouses...

just first conceive for one moment situation when all players start commenting reactions coming from spectators. i.e. nadal after winning RG year after year...

Boris Becker was sensational at 17 and 18 at Wimbledon.

But he was not 26 titles by 21 sensational. (he had 49 total).
So, aside from Becker and Borg....


The point was that the other poster made it sound as if Rafael Nadal's accomplishements are the norm, rather than a very special player. (thanks though, all in good fun :)

Hi 1963USCTennis,

I think the fear is that Nadal may physically exhaust himself with his war of attrition style, in a similar way to Borg and maybe Mats Wilander, who both burnt bright early then burnt out early also.

Nadal certainly seems more physically frail than Federer and Djokovic.

Alonso, I think you made a good point. Players that are basically the same as Rafa still have people saying "oh well, they are still very young" to excuse questionable results and/or behavior. It is easy to forget how young Rafa was. He was a 3-time GS champ within days after turning 21.

watching Djoko and nadal play it still seems that Nadal has room for improvement while Djokovic is playing perfect tennis right now...
but it's just not enough!!!!

"Nadal certainly seems more physically frail than Federer and Djokovic." Really? ???

Hi Jenn,

I mean, injury wise (apart from Djokers' obvious problems with giddiness in Monte Carlo)

Kieran, I like Nadal, I really do. I think what he has done on clay is nothing short of phenomenal. I was a huge Borg fan and I never thought I would see someone dominate on clay the way he did. But we are with Nadal.

It's funny you should say that his "no titles for 8 months" only looks bad because of his high standards. It is because of the bar he set on CLAY that his inability to win a title on other surfaces is so glaring. He has not won a title outside of clay in over 2 years correct? That's quite a discrepancy and something he must change. I agree that he has definitely improved on hardcourts which is nice to see. But despite that, he is not as good on hardcourts as Djokovic and that is going to be a problem for him. He must change that or Djokovic is going to pass him this summer.

I very much want Nadal to hold onto his #2 spot because when Federer does relinquish it someday, I would like to see Nadal own it.

But as a Nadal fan, you are lucky that Nadal can go 8 months without a title and not have it be front-page news. How do you think Federer feels? He gets lambasted when he goes one tournament without winning, let alone 8 months! Gotta hate those high standards...

Kieran-- Borg didn't exhaust himself physically, but mentally/emotionally. Nadal seems like he has a much healthier outlook and a better support system, but plays a more physically taxing game. He'll face the physical problems far before he's mentally burned out.

He won IW March 2007

Nadal's backhand I don't think is better than Roger's in general, and not even necessarily on clay--in general. He doesn't have the variety that Roger does. Roger uses his backhand as a weapon against other players, even on clay. The difference in the Roger/Rafa matchup seems to be that Rafa doesn't really fear any part of Roger's game, while the obvious fh-to-bh combo is always on Roger's mind. Thus, he hits his backhand out of fear, and limits himself, whereas Rafa can just blast away to wherever, because on clay there's no area where Roger can dominate him.

Or: if you're a RH player, you can only slice wide to the deuce sideline, directing the ball to a RH FH and a LH BH. A slice serve down the T will tend to run in to a player. On the ad side, most RH serves will hit a slice serve down the T, and use flat or kicker serves wide.

So, a RH serving to a LH player who effectively slices the ball wide (say can win the point 80% of the time) will anticipate winning the deuce point, but can't pull his opponent off court using the slice to the ad side. He/she might use a kick serve, but this is usually a second serve rather than a first serve.

Now, suppose that you have two equally matched opponents, with player A being RH and B being LH. Let's suppose they can each hit the slice serve well: A has an 80% chance of winning the point serving to the deuce side, B has an 80% chance of winning the point serving to the ad side. Serving to the other side, the chances of winning drop to 60% (these are hypothetical, made up numbers).

Elementary math shows that both players have an equal chance, 48% (=60%*80%, or 80%*60%) of winning the next two points consecutively, from deuce. There is no structural advantage to either being LH or RH.

BTW, this also gives the lie to there being a structural advantage in serving first. It's an old myth which just is not true.

yeah, i apologize, originally instead "mouse" should be "rabbit", but rabbits looks dangerous, and they are lagomorphs, not rodents, and i wish that be rodents. look:

http://tinyurl.com/3luwoa

there is one, hunting.

Hi Alexis,

"He has not won a title outside of clay in over 2 years correct?" He won Miami last year, no? Or was it California? He DID fail big time against Nalbandian and Davydenko et al, but this could be part of his learning difficulties. If he doesn't figure out how to serve big on hardcourts, he's in for a long struggle against these guys.

Federer's alleged drought is only big news because of HIS high standards and also because he's at his peak - though Nadal surely isn't yet.

I have to jump in and try and get some attention. lol. that's funny man. Your in rare form today with comebacks and it's actually really good stuff! I am enjoying the banter.
The only thing I think you left out of your post (and Im sure the point of topic was Nadal vs Fed) but , you left out how Djok was PEGGING a bunch of inside forehands right to Nadals forehand in the semifinal this weekend! Novak had real opportunities to wrong foot Nadal the entire match. I thaught he was going to come up with goods but Nadal was a rock in that last set. It was the first time I have seen someone really take that strategy to Nadal ? and I think with another opportunity he might just figure it out?
Im still picking Federer to win his first one in Paris. Although thats normally the kiss of death. lol.
keep up the good trash talking . . . tennis needs more of it.Oh yeah ... I forgot, youve been doing this forever.lol.

Hi Christopher,

I think you maybe right about Borg, but his physically demanding regime put paid to him in the end since he could no longer commit the long hours needed in practice.

However, burn out is a probable threat to Nadal long term...unless he creates a powderkeg serve for hardcourts.

Does Nadal's physical game transcend surfaces or is it more when he is playing on clay?

"He won IW March 2007"

Correct. I forgot that one. Still, he cannot afford to have a title drought after RG this year. Not with Djokovic so close.

Re: Rafa's fitness--I have to admit (and this is from someone whose preference for the top 3 players goes in order of their ranking) that I hear Rafa's losses explained away with fatigue far more often than Roger's or Novak's.

Alexis, Nadal won the Masters Series title in Indian Wells on Hard Courts approximately 14 months ago. He also played for the title in Miami this year, not to mention playing for the Masters' Title in Paris last October, and Chennai on Hard Courts in January. He also did what nobody else has done - take Roger Federer to 5 sets at Wimby 10.5 months ago. Its true that the failure to win more titles off of clay is a gap in his resume, but he has played with far more consistency on non-clay surfaces over the past few years thanmany of the players that are cited as far superior on hard courts (Roddick, Blake, etc.). On hard court Tennis Masters Tournaments, Rafa has 3 victories (Madrid, Canada, IW) and has played in the title match on 3 other occassions (2 Miami, 1 Paris). Not even Djokovic has that hard court resume yet, others not named RF don't either. So, while HC is a weakness, I don't think it is as bad as you make it out to be.

no Kieran. he won IW last year, djoko won miami 2007.

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