Greetings, everyone. I just thought I'd stop by, while still reeling from the bombshell result of last night. The things that struck me about Federer's loss was less the result itself - it isn't like Gilles Simon is chopped-liver, you know, just ask James Blake. Or Andy Roddick.
The more troubling aspect of the loss - it was The Mighty Fed's first match since Wimbledon - was how he lost. Top competitors at the peak of their form and confidence don't lose 6-4 in the third (that's code for: He was clearly in a cliffhanger) unless unusual factors come into play - Big Luck, a spell of lights-out tennis, injury. . . It's one thing for a gifted, mercurial player like Simon to catch fire and roll the die all the way to a win; it's quite another for him to battle back from multiple service breaks to take down a dominant player.
My takeaway is that that Federer didn't merely have a bad day; he may have lost a bit of confidence and/or appetite, both of which can be interpreted as signs of career fatigue. I think there can't be any doubt that TMF is, quietly and in his signature, poised, way, in the midst of a something that can't quite be called a crisis, but certainly can be described as a loss of focus. You can hardly blame the poor guy: his focus has been nothing but impeccable since about February of 2004, when he first reached the no. ranking - wrenching it away from Andy Roddick, the 2003 year-end no. 1.
And that brings me to the major issue that might be preying on TMFs mind. If he finishes no. 1 this year, it will be his fifth consecutive year as the year-end top dog - putting him within one of Pete Sampras's record six years at the position (and in Sampras's case, they were consecutive years to boot) Given that Federer already has 12 Grand Slam titles, and seems nearly certain to equal or surpass Sampras's record 14 (after all, he's only 27 this month; Sampras won his final major at age 31), setting the "most years at no. 1", or the "most consecutive years at no. 1" records must be high on his radar.
But if Federer doesn't finish in the top spot this year, you can throw out the latter out the window, although he'll still have a good shot at the former. I think his decision to play a full schedule in the fall testifies to the importance these records hold for him - especially when you consider the relatively poor showings his main rival, Rafael Nadal, makes in the autumn.
With the Olympic Games and U.S. Open coming up, it begins to look more and more like crunch-time for Federer. These next few weeks may represent a significant juncture in his career - no matter what happens in his chase to become the all-time Grand Slam singles champion. So what are Federer's chances of finishing no. 1 this year? Tom Perrotta told me, "Twenty per-cent, max. More like ten to fifteen percent."
Anybody care to hazard a significantly different number?
On another note I recently read two highly entertaining tennis-related stories; the first one (sort of) about my Tennis magazine colleague and pal, Tom Perrotta . The second one is a terrific - and, at times, utterly hilarious - piece on the influence of Michael Chang on "Asian" tennis. This latter piece is so original and inventive, that it makes me feel sheepish for not having considered Chang's career and life from the author's perspective.
I'll be back shortly with a post from a surprise guest!
