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The Flying Pig Fallacy, YC 2.27 02/27/2009 - 12:27 PM

Rafa by Pete Bodo

Well, it's been an eventful week - I never had the chance to resume the coaching series, but I will next week. Meanwhile, I've been doing a little navel-gazing and want to just ramble around a bit this morning.

One of the pleasures of writing a weblog like this is the instant, unlimited feedback you get from readers (tough as that can make life when you screw up or get someone's nose out of joint). As most of you aren't journalists, I'm not sure you can fully appreciate the novelty of all this for someone like me. For most of my adult life, the only out-of-profession response I could count on was the occasional Letters to the Editor submission that made its way to my desk or the Tennis letters department - usually, some weeks after whatever I wrote appeared. Unfortunately, the effort required to actually compose and send such a letter tended to limit the practice of this art form to really, really angry people. This is a whole new and far more vibrant, agreeable (usually) world. You can call me out now, quickly and immediately, but I also like that this street is policed both ways.

For example, yesterday, while reading the Comments on the Stages of Great post, I felt moved to call out a few readers on two different fronts having to do with Roger Federer's game, and efforts to analyze/rationalize some of his results. The first of these is what I would call the Statistical Fallacy, and it occurs when we forget that tennis is first and foremost a game of specific match-ups, and therefore each match comes with an entire palette of subtle technical/mental/emotional issues that help shape the outcome. That is, a player's conversion rate on break points, first-serve percentage, or winner-to-error ratio is shaped by the match-up to a degree that renders comparative statistics a highly dubious enterprise.

Here's a comparison. I imagine (and maybe one of you diligent souls will be moved to do the research on this) that even the best hitters in baseball have less than a hall-of-fame batting average against certain pitchers they face frequently enough for the statistics to be significant (I am not anti-statistic). The lifetime .300 hitter may bat just .125 against a certain pitcher, and while you can put that down to a technical failure to execute (the plane of his swing is too flat for the way this guy pitches; this particular pitcher's fastball is especially deadly against left-handers), but it's more accurate, and fair, to say:  "Pitcher-X has batter-X's number" than it is to say  "Batter-X is .300 hitter, so his failure to hit better than .125 against Pitcher-X is an anomaly."

Often, there's often a reason that execution goes awry. it's really all about the chemistry of the principals and their games, and the result of the mix is often unpredictable. The most realistic, accurate comment is: Holy Cow, Batter-X should thank God Pitcher -X isn't the only thrower in the game!

The other presumption can be called the Flying Pig Fallacy. I was accused of a worshiping at the "altar of Nadal" yesterday (where was Tigress when Nadal fans were skewering me for writing about Federer, rather than Nadal, the day after the Australian Open?) for suggesting that it's not really fair to claim that if Federer's service percentage had been somewhere in the X-per cent area, he would have won the match. This, of course, is the fountain of rationalization from which every KAD drinks copiously and greedily, and it's the same instinct that leads to someone to say: So-and-so should win because he has the best game.

What that really means is: So-and-so has the style that most appeals to me. And winning and losing at tennis isn't about style, or technique. You don't get docked for having a "boring" game, nor are you awarded style points for a pretty backhand. There's a difference between being the most powerful, the most skillful, the most artistic, the most versatile and. . . the best. And that difference is indisputable, at least on a match-by-match basis, because in tennis they keep score. It's about who wins two or three sets first, and that's really about who gets to the other guy's serve more effectively.

This, incidentally, is a two-part issue: how well you protect your own serve, and how well you attack the other guy's. To my mind, Nadal's ability to protect his serve is the least thoroughly explored "technical" issue in the rivalry, and it was an enormous component in the Australian Open final (as well as the underpinning of his repeated triumphs at Roland Garros). Federer's first-serve percentage as a stand-alone statistic, means absolutely nothing because holding is just half the battle - and here's a secret: it's the easier half.

                                                                  **********

One of the less obvious pleasures of being an Internet journalist is that reader reaction can take you on interesting journeys that have less to do with literary content than journeys into the more abstract realms of semantics, or logic. That is, if you care at all about what people say. And I do care - in direct proportion to the nature and tone of any given criticism or observation. Thus, given the controversy stirred by my use of a certain phrase in my Your Call post on the Swedish Davis Cup tie (I'm not going to repeat the offending words here), I found myself thinking quite a bit about word choice and usage the other afternoon.

So let me ask you this. Is it objectionable to write, Nobody does fashion as well as the French! Better yet, how about, Nobody does clay-court tennis like the Spanish. I think we'd all agree that these are not unacceptable or offensive generalizations; they're fact-based opinions that may or may not be true. I doubt that anyone would consider either of those phrases an example of "stereotyping" which suggests that we reserve the use of that word for observations that, for whatever reason, offend us. And the perceived offense easily overshadows and discredits the substance of the observation. Nobody has a problem with identifying the French with fashion, but what if I wrote, Nobody does chauvinism as well as the French. Wanna bet it triggers a host of protests?  So I'm not sure that "stereotyping" is really the issue here; the issue is real or imagined criticism - which may or may not be valid.

Further, what does Nobody does clay-court tennis as well as the Spanish really mean? It certainly doesn't mean that Italy, or France, has no good clay players; nor does it mean that every Spanish pro is a great clay-court player. And it doesn't mean that the Spanish are just clay-court players (I can think of at least one Spanish kid whose game on grass and hard is pretty darned good, too). It just means that Spain has produced more fine clay court players than any other nation, which to some degree is a matter of simple fact. I  think all generalizations of this kind ought to be run through the same logic mill. Maybe a "stereotype" is really just a generalization that we don't like or agree with, or which can't be backed up with a reasonable body of facts. In that case, there is reason to be offended.

                                                              *****************

I was lucky the other day, though, when an angel of mercy jumped in with the "B" word (Brad Pitt), suggesting that the movie star ought to play the lead role in a projected auto-biography of Roger Federer (or was it TMF himself who suggested that?).  Hollywood to the rescue! Soon everyone was talking about his and her favorite actor instead of global politics and things settled down.

Cosby And what would the appropriate Roger Federer movie be called? Maybe He's Just Not that Into Davis Cup? Rancho de Luxilon? How about Breakpoints Are Forever, with a theme song by Shirley Bassey, and a logo shaped like a Wilson tennis racket spelling out 014. Boo-yeah, old school! 

Hey, it's not so far-fetched, is it? There is something James Bond-esque about TMF, and it isn't the first name he shares with one of actors who has portrayed Ian Fleming's celebrated British spy. James Bond could be described as Roger Federer-plus, the plus being a better developed left arm, a lot more experience with semi-automatic handguns, a deeper knowledge of mixology, and a penchant for caddish behavior. But I have a funny feeling that Mirka would put the ki-bosh on that last item, pronto.

And here's something else, Roger is a very tradition-minded guy; who better to take the tennis-espionage tradition to the next level? Let's remember that Bill Cosby, while no longer so ubiquitous, got his start in television portraying co-star Robert Culp's tennis coach in the enormously popular series, I Spy.

Culp and Cosby were a pair of secret agents working under cover as "tennis bums" in the classic sense - they were footloose playboy/athletes, following the sun (and wealthy heiresses) while saving the world from all manner of villains. Culp was the player. Cosby the coach. Federer could do one of those roles nicely, although it would have to be the Cosby gig. Lord knows, Lee Strasberg himself probably couldn't teach TMF how to impersonate someone who's into being coached!. 

Good enough, it leaves the Robert Culp role as the player to - who else? - Marat Safin.

Chatter on! And have a good weekend, everyone.

PS - I've hi-jacked Jackie-Oh's Deuce Club for today, although I may have to post it fairly late tonight, from the farm.

- Pete
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Posted by Hart 02/27/2009 at 05:54 PM

lol Sherlock. Don't jinx it!

I actually have heard that before. If it's a 'weak ankle' problem, better to strengthen the muscles and tendons to prevent rolling than rely on a brace, which can weaken them. And I heard it from a credible source too! :)

Posted by Stella 02/27/2009 at 05:57 PM

Here's is the article from the ATP if anyone wants to see

http://www.atpworldtour.com/tennis/1/en/2008news/return_leaders.asp
Posted by Marian...wtg Rafa! 02/27/2009 at 05:57 PM

Pspace: On the contrary, I'm still working to achieve that low to high motion lol I love hitting flat though, am a newb what can I say? That's my best weapon to blast people ( especially the ones better then me) off the court...Have mainly worked to improved my movement though.

Sherlock: "Try to get away from wearing a brace altogether" yes, that's the advise I got from probably the top orthopaedic surgeon back home ( he was looking after the national soccer team), but it was after my knee surgery... (So I'm speaking about the knee not the ankle and even about basic elastic ones- he only recommended them for a few days, at the most).

As for ankles rolling on basketball? Never in many years of competition ( wear boots though, high ones).
Posted by izidane 02/27/2009 at 06:00 PM

Enjoy the tennis everyone.

Vee FTW tonight, don't want the goddess dress going out on a loss.
Vee Said on thw WTA blog that this will be the last tourny with the dress.
Posted by Sherlock 02/27/2009 at 06:00 PM

Thanks, Hart! I'll take any source and use it to make me look good, but credible is even better. :)

Interesting, Marian. Thanks for that. Wow, no ankle rolls, eh? That's great! Lucky bum. :)
Posted by Marian...wtg Rafa! 02/27/2009 at 06:00 PM

Stella thanks but, in my simple mind, I tend to look at decisive returns of serve (like Nalby and a few seem to be doing better then Rafa. Actually I've only seen Rafa doing that against Roddick, on...clay in the Madrid DC semi ).
Posted by Budour 02/27/2009 at 06:00 PM

And Federer has a ridiculous record against big servers doesn't he?
Rafa is soo god at getting serves back in play and then getting to neutral rallies where he'll always have the advantage.
Posted by Bismarck 02/27/2009 at 06:00 PM

“His game is the worst for me because he has no faults in his game he has a big backhand, big forehand and he runs everywhere, so that’s really hard for me.”
Posted by sblily (Gil Reyes KAD) 02/27/2009 at 06:02 PM

Thanks, Stella.

V. interesting, as the conventional wisdom (at least among tv commentators) is that Rafa's return of serve is a weakness.

Posted by Stella 02/27/2009 at 06:02 PM

The players are entering the court in Acapulco.
Posted by Pspace 02/27/2009 at 06:04 PM

Bissy, who said that about who? Fed about Nadal?
Posted by Hart 02/27/2009 at 06:04 PM

>>Thanks, Hart! I'll take any source and use it to make me look good, but credible is even better. :)

I (sadly) spent so much time in physical therapy that they joked about hiring me... ;) I, however, am pretty stuck with a brace, for several reasons...
Posted by Budour 02/27/2009 at 06:05 PM

This was Gasquet about Ferrer, Bismarck?
Imeant 'good' BTW
Posted by Marian...wtg Rafa! 02/27/2009 at 06:05 PM

Ty Sherlock but does knee surgery count? Just when I got into bball, I got the ball, they ...body checked me (and I was after one year break from sports, handball). Also made me fall awkward and injured my back a bit, but never the ankle. It did came close once, when I've trained daily, the whole summer, with a centre,a friend,(I'm only a power forward), one on one- he was preparing for the major league (equivalent of NBA), I was in the second league- he almost twisted my ankle, while I gave him a septal deviation (elbow to his nose).

Again have you been wearing high cut basketball boots? I think in NBA players are even required to tape them.
Posted by Vie 02/27/2009 at 06:10 PM

Rosangel, I want to add some response to your airing out a problem as to style and content of your posts.

I as a reader enjoy them as is, whatever you present in a specific post. I glean different things from them, one of which obviously is that you "adore" Rafa. Posts can have negative reactions or readings by different readers. I think your style is mainly direct, honest and outspoken. And I think you are objective. Posts can have negative reactions and readings by diferent readers, sometimes because of the preferences of the readers, as we see, Pete, being accused of being partial sometimes when a reader is on the defensive about a favorite and his reputation. This can't be helped. In short, I do not see ulterior motives in your posts and I do enjoy them because we cannot have just anodyne posts here like mine (hee).
Posted by Pspace 02/27/2009 at 06:10 PM

Quotes from Nole:

"""
"You have to work for luck, it doesn't just fall through the sky," said the top seed, "I had to fight my way through in the match, I really believed till the end.

"Mentally, this is a very important win for me.

"If I want to stay (among) the top of the men's game, I have to win these matches, because Simon is certainly one of the best players in the world.

"Simon plays a very unique game, is very solid from all sides, and plays with few unforced errors.
"""

And, Jambon:

"""
"I'm just playing very bad, even when I have opportunities, I'm not able to do anything with them," said Simon.

"I had several chance to break him in the second set, the third set, but every time, I did a mistake and gave him the point.

"I had enough chances to win this match, and I lost it."
"""

http://tinyurl.com/beccbx
Posted by avid sports fan aka "Sigh-Rena" 02/27/2009 at 06:11 PM

How did they manage to miss Rotterdam out of the ATP 500 series on that list? Meanwhile as it stands now, Rafa has to play either China, Tokyo, Basel, or Valencia after the US Open.
Posted by Budour 02/27/2009 at 06:11 PM

C'mon, Almagro, eventhough you beat my Potito.
Posted by Stella 02/27/2009 at 06:13 PM

The match has started in Acapulco.
Posted by Stella 02/27/2009 at 06:16 PM

People need to shut up and take there freaking seats. Geezz, good manners please.
Posted by london 02/27/2009 at 06:20 PM

link to acapulco anyone?

Posted by avid sports fan aka "Sigh-Rena" 02/27/2009 at 06:21 PM

london - http://www.atdhe.net/live-tv-3979.html
Posted by Sherlock 02/27/2009 at 06:21 PM

"I, however, am pretty stuck with a brace, for several reasons..."

Aw, nuts. Sorry to hear that, Hart. :(

Marian, let me remove my foot from my mouth. Yes, knee surgery definitely counts. :)

As for shoes, I've never been a high cut guy. I didn't like the restriction. Probably doesn't help my odds for ankle rolls, but it was worth the risk for me.
Posted by Stella 02/27/2009 at 06:22 PM

Acapulco

http://channelsurfing.net/watch-wabuk-6.html
Posted by Pspace 02/27/2009 at 06:26 PM

hehe...My friend just got back from a tennis vacation, where he played against the #1 under-10 player. Apparently, he got his butt kicked. They only played a long TB though, which he lost 4-11. He's all humble now...poor guy...maybe I can use this to beat up on him next time ;-).
Posted by london 02/27/2009 at 06:28 PM

thanks guys!!
Posted by Budour 02/27/2009 at 06:31 PM

Simon's comments reminded me a bit of Djokovic's after the Hamburg semi against Nadal:
http://www.tennis-x.com/story/2008-05-17/h.php
Too lazy to tinyurl


Posted by Stella 02/27/2009 at 06:37 PM

I just read in the ESPN deportes that Gonzo will not play DC because of his back. Does Chile have any chance now, not that there chances were that good in the first place.
Posted by Stella 02/27/2009 at 06:38 PM

*on
Posted by Budour 02/27/2009 at 06:39 PM

Almagro showing glimpses of his brilliance and his headcasery in this last game.
Posted by greenhopper 02/27/2009 at 06:40 PM

get it together, Hanley/Kerr.
Posted by Budour 02/27/2009 at 06:42 PM

Who are Chile playing, Stella?
Posted by avid sports fan aka "Sigh-Rena" 02/27/2009 at 06:42 PM

greenhopper - I was waiting for you to come up and say that ;-)
Posted by greenhopper 02/27/2009 at 06:43 PM

lol, avid. these are going out of control.
Posted by Angel of the Surf 02/27/2009 at 06:44 PM

Good morning good folks.

Emma I like your choice of Eric Dane to play Marat btw.

Damn I can't get the link to work for Acapulco. I might try Betfair.

Did Ferru/Marat win their doubles match.
Posted by avid sports fan aka "Sigh-Rena" 02/27/2009 at 06:46 PM

greenhopper - I was shocked when I checked the scoreboard and saw 5-1 ;-) and it's the giant killers again!
Posted by Bismarck 02/27/2009 at 06:46 PM

sorry Pspace, phone call distracted me.
Budour is right, that quote was gasquet about ferrer.
fun, no?

zhenya easily won while i was away. nice. march on, saviour of delray.
Posted by Budour 02/27/2009 at 06:47 PM

They lost in the super TB, Angel.
Posted by Angel of the Surf 02/27/2009 at 06:50 PM

Damn. Thanks Budour. Ok back to the stream I go and check on other scores.
Posted by Budour 02/27/2009 at 06:54 PM

It's not so fun for this Gasquet fan, Bizzle, but as long as it makes you happy, I can take some positives out of it. :)
I'm so rooting for Korolev to win Delray.
Almagro has to improve his 1st serve %. Vamos dude
Posted by greenhopper 02/27/2009 at 06:55 PM

whoa Flavia!
http://tinyurl.com/d5l4hw
Posted by Angel of the Surf 02/27/2009 at 06:57 PM

Martin shares the same birthday as Ren and I.

I love Nico's colouring and wearing white shorts is a better choice than the green ones he had on the other day.
Posted by greenhopper 02/27/2009 at 06:57 PM

and he's not called bambi for nothing
http://tinyurl.com/ankmmr
Posted by avid sports fan aka "Sigh-Rena" 02/27/2009 at 06:58 PM

greenhopper - oh my gosh! Those arms are scary!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Posted by Amit 02/27/2009 at 06:59 PM

Budour,

Federer returns big servers exceptionally well (anticipation/coordination) in the sense that he doesn't get aced out, but he doesn't have to "do" a whole lot with the return. Roddick doesn't have an elite ground game off both sides in the same way the top 4 do. Fed can slice away all match and force errors.

This approach fails against Murray or Nadal, and that's where his return shortcomings show up.

Posted by Master Ace 02/27/2009 at 06:59 PM

Saturday Schedule:

ATP: Dubai 8 AM - Damm/Lindstedt vs DeVoest/Tursunov
ATP: Dubai 10 AM - Novak Djokovic vs David Ferrer
ATP: Delray Beach 2:30 PM - Evgeny Korolev vs Christophe Rochus
ATP: Delray Beach 7 PM - Fish/Serra winner vs Jeremy Chardy
WTA: Acapulco 7:30 PM - V Williams/Zahlavova Strycova winner vs Flavia Pennetta
ATP: Acapulco 10 PM - Vassallo Arguello/Almagro winner vs Acasuso/Monfils winner
Posted by Sher 02/27/2009 at 06:59 PM

Rosangel,

Yes I knew your comment was partially rhethorical, but I felt compelled to respond nonetheless :)

Man, i have a headache. OMGSLEEP. 'bye all!
Posted by Stella 02/27/2009 at 07:00 PM

Budour, I believe there playing Croatia.

Posted by Budour 02/27/2009 at 07:01 PM

Almagro was playing so much better this time last year. His straight-set victory over Nalby in last year's Acapulco final was one of the best individual performances of 2008, IMO
Posted by Angel of the Surf 02/27/2009 at 07:06 PM

Budour to be fair to Nico he has had a few injuries during 2008 so he is prolly just getting his game back on track.

Yikes Flavia.
Posted by Angel of the Surf 02/27/2009 at 07:13 PM

See you all later, off to pilates. I don't know why I bother to go really as I don't enjoy it.

Also just realise I will miss the women's final tomorrow as I am going out to brekkie. Damn
Posted by Angel of the Surf 02/27/2009 at 07:13 PM

See you all later, off to pilates. I don't know why I bother to go really as I don't enjoy it.

Also just realise I will miss the women's final tomorrow as I am going out to brekkie. Damn
Posted by Annie 02/27/2009 at 07:17 PM

sblily: i don't know. do they break it down for lst and 2nd serves? maybe the atp website has it, ill check.
Posted by Budour 02/27/2009 at 07:20 PM

"so he is prolly just getting his game back on track"
I hope so, Angel because he's one of my favourite players to watch.
Posted by Stella 02/27/2009 at 07:21 PM

Annie the link that a I posted on the top of the page has the stats if you want to take a look.

Posted by Sherlock 02/27/2009 at 07:27 PM

Greenhopper, that was an amazing picture of Monfils. What was he doing there, I wonder? :)
Posted by Annie 02/27/2009 at 07:27 PM

http://www.atpworldtour.com/tennis/en/players/matchfacts/

sblily: here's info from the atp site. show's the categories but i don't see Ferru listed as tops.
Posted by Annie 02/27/2009 at 07:28 PM

thanks stella!
Posted by avid sports fan aka "Sigh-Rena" 02/27/2009 at 07:30 PM

Sherlock - He did some high jump over the net yesterday when he ran to pick up a DS from Mayer. I think that picture was from when he jumped over the net so as not to crash into it instead ;-)
Posted by Annie 02/27/2009 at 07:31 PM

actually if you check out the link i posted you'll see an interesting list of names at the top. these must be ytd for 2009.
Posted by avid sports fan aka "Sigh-Rena" 02/27/2009 at 07:31 PM

Annie - yours is the YTD for 2009. the link Stella posted earlier was for 2008.
Posted by Annie 02/27/2009 at 07:38 PM

avid: right, and i gathered from the piece stella posted ferrer was the leader in 2007, but still very impressive from him and he's hot right now. i hope he wins over nole tomorrow.
Posted by Pspace 02/27/2009 at 07:44 PM

So those stats don't tell us too much do they? I mean comparing Rafa and Fed's returns:

% won on 1st serve return : 32% vs 34% (in favor of Fed)
% won on 2nd serve return : 59% vs 55% (in favor of Rafa)
% BPs converted : 46% vs 47% (in favor of Fed)
Return games won: 34 vs 32 (in favor of Rafa)

So, while comparing them to the rest of the tour, they are about equal. It would be interesting to compare how well Rafa returns Federer's serve compared to the rest of the tour, and vice-versa. That will prolly be more telling.
Posted by sblily (Gil Reyes KAD) 02/27/2009 at 07:47 PM

Annie - Thanks for the link! I'm bookmarking that site, as I expect those rankings to change as the year progresses. :)
Posted by Master Ace 02/27/2009 at 07:49 PM

Tiebreaker:
M = Mardy Fish
F = Florent Serra

Fish had 2 chances to win the set from 15-40 but Serra won the last 4 pts of the game

Fish serving to begin the tiebreak

M 1-0 Serra FH return wide
M 2-0 Serra nets BH
M 2-1 Fish nets BH
M 3-1 Fish Ace at the T
M 3-2 Fish FH long
M 4-2 Serra nets FH that was set up by deep FH by Fish that hits the baseline
Posted by Master Ace 02/27/2009 at 07:52 PM

Serra serving at 6-all(2-4 TB)

M 5-2 Fish volley winner
M 6-2 Serra nets BH
Fish wins the set as he hits service winner

Fish leads Serra 7-6(2) but Serra will serve to start the 2nd
Posted by Sherlock 02/27/2009 at 07:53 PM

Avid, thanks! :) For some reason, I just LOVE that picture.

Who win in golf today? You mentioned earlier that Clark was struggling, correct?
Posted by Master Ace 02/27/2009 at 07:53 PM

Nicolas Almagro defeats Martin Vassallo Arguello 6-4,6-4..

Venus Williams and Barbora Zahlavova Strycova next.....
Posted by Stella 02/27/2009 at 07:53 PM

Nico wins, Now bring Vee.
Posted by avid sports fan aka "Sigh-Rena" 02/27/2009 at 07:54 PM

Pspace - You can get the details by checking their H2H and each specific match. Here are their last five GSs

For the AO 2009

Statistics on Return Nadal Federer
1st Return Points Won 26% (24/89) 33% (38/112)
2nd Return Points Won 54% (45/83) 52% (33/63)
Break Points Won 43% (7/16) 31% (6/19)
Return Games Played 26 24

SW19 2008
Statistics on Return
1st Return Points Won 27% (35/127) 30% (49/160)
2nd Return Points Won 42% (29/68) 41% (24/58)
Break Points Won 30% (4/13) 7% (1/13)
Return Games Played 30 30

RG 2008
Statistics on Return
1st Return Points Won 50% (27/53) 30% (15/50)
2nd Return Points Won 79% (19/24) 35% (6/17)
Break Points Won 47% (8/17) 25% (1/4)
Return Games Played 11 11

SW19 2007
Statistics on Return
1st Return Points Won 28% (32/111) 31% (37/118)
2nd Return Points Won 37% (17/45) 42% (21/49)
Break Points Won 36% (4/11) 37% (3/8)
Return Games Played 25 25

RG 2007
Statistics on Return
1st Return Points Won 34% (26/76) 30% (32/106)
2nd Return Points Won 45% (19/42) 45% (14/31)
Break Points Won 40% (4/10) 5% (1/17)
Return Games Played 19 19
Posted by Stella 02/27/2009 at 07:56 PM

Found out why Nico hasn't been playing that well on the on court interview he said that he's has had problems on his arm since Brazil.

Posted by Pspace 02/27/2009 at 07:59 PM

avid, thanks. We can use that and maybe compare it to Andrew's database, to see how everyone else returns against Roger.
Posted by avid sports fan aka "Sigh-Rena" 02/27/2009 at 07:59 PM

Sherlock - Clark crashed out to 19 yr old Rory McIlroy 4 and 3 and I negatively jinxed Camilo as he crashed out to Geoff Ogilvy 3 and 2. Phil also crashed out to Steward Cink. Ernie Els progressed. Ian Poulter crashed out to Sean O'Hair. Justin Leonard also won so it is a very International field left now. For now I choose not to vocally support anyone so as not to jinx them ;-)
Posted by Master Ace 02/27/2009 at 07:59 PM

Stella,
Ready for the WTA in a few minutes as the winner will face Flavia Pennetta tomorrow?
Posted by Stella 02/27/2009 at 08:03 PM

* that should be shoulder
Posted by avid sports fan aka "Sigh-Rena" 02/27/2009 at 08:03 PM

pspace - yeah. But in general, I think as time progressed from 2007 to 2009 just looking at these stats, it's not that Rafa's return surpassed Roger's remarkably, the BP conversion seems to be the striking difference in both guys' stats. of course there will be more things in play but I ain't no stats person so I won't venture beyond here ;-)
Posted by Pspace 02/27/2009 at 08:06 PM

Btw, have times changed so much that a 50% first serve is cause for mourning? :-) I thot 50% was ok, when one is converting 75% or so. I guess 46% of second serve points won is more trouble to me. But if Rafa can do it with 48%....it's just a couple of points here and there.
Posted by Stella 02/27/2009 at 08:07 PM

Master Ace I just hope that Vee wins and in two sets. I was able to see Flavia's match and she is playing great if Vee makes the final she really has to up her game.
Posted by Master Ace 02/27/2009 at 08:07 PM

Venus Williams and Barbora Zahlavova Strycova are on the court.
Posted by avid sports fan aka "Sigh-Rena" 02/27/2009 at 08:08 PM

But Flavia and Dulko are in danger of being bagelled in the first set of their doubles match.
Posted by Pspace 02/27/2009 at 08:08 PM

avid, yeah, BP conversion was certainly relevant to Wimby '08. I don't see a big difference in Oz...just one extra break for Rafa. % diff looks huge, but it's out of a small total.
Posted by Stella 02/27/2009 at 08:09 PM

Whoa! Vee looks so tall next to the girl she playing.
Posted by Master Ace 02/27/2009 at 08:10 PM

Stella,
Thanks for the Flavia update. I have been without internet most of the afternoon due to heavy rain and a fiber optic cable being cut they had to repair.

Venus will serve to begin the match from Acapulco

http://www.channelsurfing.net/watch-wabuk-3.html

http://www.atdhe.net/live-tv-4108.html
Posted by avid sports fan aka "Sigh-Rena" 02/27/2009 at 08:13 PM

Pspace - true on BP in AO but I guess again it depends on where the BPs came up and how critical they were. Roger had all his opportunities in sets 1-4. While Rafa had his spread through sets 1-5. Not that this info adds any knowledge ;-)
Posted by greenhopper 02/27/2009 at 08:14 PM

avid, thanks for the explanation re: Bambi's photo.
I totally love that pic.

Hanley/Kerr! for shame, dudes. for shame.
Posted by london 02/27/2009 at 08:14 PM

im gonna go on a limb and say that venus will win in two sets. i really hope im right.
Posted by avid sports fan aka 02/27/2009 at 08:14 PM

Oh the bagel was averted and they even broke again ;-) 2-5 serving now.
Posted by Arun 02/27/2009 at 08:15 PM

1/13 and 1/17 -- 2 of the most haunting stats for a Fed fan.
Posted by Master Ace 02/27/2009 at 08:16 PM

Match is about to start as Venus will be playing her 9th match in the last 11 days. Will that play a role today?
Posted by avid sports fan aka "Sigh-Rena" 02/27/2009 at 08:16 PM

greenhopper - It was hilarious yesterday and JMac then went on about how he got such athletic abilities from his mom ;-)
Posted by Master Ace 02/27/2009 at 08:17 PM

London,
Forgot to say thanks for the update on a Venus match earlier this week.
Posted by avid sports fan aka "Sigh-Rena" 02/27/2009 at 08:18 PM

very clumsy and lazy BH from Vee there.
Posted by Sherlock 02/27/2009 at 08:19 PM

Sounds like a good plan, avid. :)

Wow, Phil and Tiger both out. NBC is hoping for bad weather everywhere to hopefully get someone to watch. :)
Posted by london 02/27/2009 at 08:19 PM

venus looks tired...
Posted by avid sports fan aka "Sigh-Rena" 02/27/2009 at 08:21 PM

Sherlock - I know not good for NBC as all their stars (Tiger, Phil, Vijay) and upcoming stars (A Kim) are out now. But I will pity them and watch ;-)
Posted by greenhopper 02/27/2009 at 08:21 PM

avid, why his mom? Wiki tells me she is a nurse.
Posted by Stella 02/27/2009 at 08:21 PM

I'm sorry to say this but Vee needs a sports bra or something she is wearing white and I can see her headlights on my tv.
Posted by Master Ace 02/27/2009 at 08:22 PM

15-0 Barbora BH return long
30-0 Barbora nets FH after good BH DTL by Venus
30-15 Venus nets BH after she steps inside the court
30-30 Venus nets FH
30-40 Venus DF
40-40 Venus service winner
A-40 Barbora nets BH passing shot after Venus hit FH approach and volleyed at the net
Venus holds as Barbora FH sails long

Barbora to serve 0-1
Posted by avid sports fan aka 02/27/2009 at 08:22 PM

greenhopper - I have no idea. But that was what JMac said ;-)
Posted by london 02/27/2009 at 08:23 PM

no problem master ace!
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