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Pole Position
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11/18/2009 - 1:03 PM
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Mornin'. I'm a little late to the party today, because we had a new podcast to record: subject, Barclays ATP World Tour Finals in London, which for many of you will be the main course of your Thanksgiving meal next week. Just this morning, I had a note from our old Twibe friend, Skip1515, who's going to the attend the event and may send along some of his impressions.
I'm not going to tell you who I picked to win the Tennis Master's Cup in London - you'll have to listen to the podcast (which will go live on the Tennis.com home page tomorrow afternoon) before you start howling in outrage. But here's a hint: the guy has given me a second life as a seer.
Once again, I have to issue the disclaimer: I'm a reporter and analyst, not a fortune-teller given to wearing robes and a conical hat festooned with astrological signs (Little Steven, anyone?. I've seen too many tennis matches - whole tournaments, in fact) run off the rails to feel justified when I make the right call, or ashamed when it's the wrong one. You can put it alongside my profound distaste for bracketology and the endless parsing of draws; everyone has a tough draw (or an easy one) until he doesn't, and if that sounds a little hippy-dippy, so be it. To the players, I say shut-up and just win the thing; to the fans I say shut-up and tip your hat to the guy who won. Tennis is a reality-based game.
Besides, where's the fun in picking Roger Federer, Novak Djokovic, or Rafael Nadal to win?
Well, these opinions certainly aren't shared by one and all; if they were, there would be less to talk about, and we all know that jawing about the draw is as fine a way to vent emotions and opinions as any other. So put on your pundit caps and fire away, but remember that these round-robin setups are tricky, because to some degree all the matches played after day 1 are conditioned by what happened on the previous day, or days, when it comes to the match-ups. One man's "must-win" is often his opponent's "can lose." I do like the basic round-robin approach, and believe that these tournaments produce credible results. But they're a different kind of animal. The example I always trot out in this discussion is Ilie Nastase. The guy was a basket case at Grand Slam events (he won "only" two of five major finals), given his talent level. But he was hail on wheels at the annual Masters events, winning the year-end championships four times, which leaves him tied with Roger Federer in that department). I put it down to the fact that Nastase knew that he could lose a match and, in some cases, even two matches, and still wind-up in the semi-finals. That took considerable pressure off him, and helped quell some of the anxieties to which he was prone in single-elimination events. And while we're on the Tennis Masters Cup, how about a hat-tip to "the Poles" (As one ATP Tour headline recently put it, Verdasco and Poles Complete Barclays ATP World Tour Finals Field! - it looks like I'm not the only one who gets irritated by having to tab back-and-forth between my document and the ATP website to make sure I spell correctly the names of Marius Fyrstenberg and Marcin Martkowsi). Still, while the Polish duo (pictured here) did a good job closing the deal on qualification in the last few weeks of the season, I was sad to see that their resounding, berth-clinching win over Mike and Bob Bryan in Paris also knocked out of contention those old warhorses, Wesley Moodie and Dick Norman.
It would have been nice to see Moodie and Norman in the big show, even if they were hobbling in with the aid of walkers. -- Pete
463 Comments
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Posted by Nichole |
11/18/2009 at 01:17 PM |
I saw them at the French Open! It was my first ever doubles match I watched live, and second live match ever (with the Mosquito and Kolschreiber finishing their match this morning). I had a friend with me who knows more about the game than I do and he was able to explain the strategy in doubles. Regardless of my ineptitude for doubles strategy, I could easily tell the skinnier guy was the weaker of the two players, that's why I am shocked they made it here to the year end tournament. They lost to Robredo and his partner at the time. Beautiful match! Go Poland! |
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Posted by Nichole |
11/18/2009 at 01:18 PM |
1st for the first time ever :-) |
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Posted by Nichole |
11/18/2009 at 01:19 PM |
I didn't preface the start of my initial paragraph that I saw the Polish doubles team at the French Open. |
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Posted by greenhopper |
11/18/2009 at 01:22 PM |
I love these two. Especially Fatty. They're totally fierce on court. Watched a very entertaining match between them and the pretty Spanish ladies in IW. |
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Posted by observer |
11/18/2009 at 01:33 PM |
As much as I love Federer and want him to end the year at #1, it is kind of exciting now with his game a little off the rails and Nadal's still unsteady and vulnerable as well that literally any player in the tournament could win any given match. Not that Federer 04-07 and Nadal 08 were invulnerable to losing to lesser players, but the possibility seems tangible now. |
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Posted by Grant |
11/18/2009 at 01:39 PM |
Admit it Pete, you only mentioned the Poles so you could come up with the name for today's post. |
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Posted by aussiemarg [Madame President in Comma Rehab for 2009] |
11/18/2009 at 01:50 PM |
Steve. Your going to tell us on Podcast? mmmmm.I love your hint though lol!.I think I know but I will keep your secret. |
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Posted by kingphil |
11/18/2009 at 01:51 PM |
Pete, did you actually pick Robin Soderling to win?! If so, BRAVO. I am officially picking Robin Soderling to WIN or at least make the final of the Championship.
Now before everyone gets all crazy with the "What are you talking about?!"s, just hear me out. Soderling's largest enemy this season has no question been Federer.Federer stopped Robin's runs at the French, Wimbledon, AND the U.S. Open(talk about bad luck with the draws).... But Federer has been a little lax lately, not that it means anything in the long run, but he hasnt been playing his best and I do NOT think Federer will qualify for the semis( Murray and Del Po are my picks) in his group. THEN, the only problem's Soderling faces in his group B are Djokovic( a legitimate problem but Soderling can lose to Djoker and still make the semi's), Davydenko(who Soderling beat last week AND at the U.S.....even the french too I think?) and then that leaves Rafael Nadal. But if anyone scares Nadal right now it is Robin Soderling, who is arguably responsible for stopping Nadal's supremacy in the sport. Soderlign will beat Nadal and Davydenko but lose to Djokovic, still making the semis. Djoker will get taken out in the semi and Soderling will advance and win the tournament.
Y'all Remember you heard it all hear first folks, from kingphil
That being said, opinions? Feel free to agree or criticize |
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Posted by aussiemarg [Madame President in Comma Rehab for 2009] |
11/18/2009 at 01:51 PM |
oops I have just come off night shift,my brain isnt working
I meant to say Pete lol! |
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Posted by Master Ace |
11/18/2009 at 01:56 PM |
Here is the draw for Tennis Masters Cup in London:
A - Roger, Andy, Juan Martin, and Fernando
B - Rafael, Novak, Nikolay, and Robin
Doubles
A - Nestor/Zimonjic, Bhupathi/Knowles, Cermak/Mertinak, and Fyrstenberg/Matkowski
B - B Bryan/M Bryan, Dlouhy/Paes, Kubot/Marach, Mirnyi/Ram
Tennis Channel will show all matches except for the singles final, which will be showed on ESPN2. All matches will be showed LIVE.
First 7 days(6 days of round robin AND semifinals)
Afternoon session - 7:30 AM for doubles and 9:15 AM for singles
Evening session - 2 PM for doubles and 3:45 PM for singles
Finals
Doubles to be played at 7:30 AM
Singles to be played at 9:30 AM *
* ESPN2 will be on the air at 8 AM with semifinal highlights before the live final
Tennistv.com will show all doubles matches for free and for 24.95 you can stream all the singles matches
Here is the link telling us about doubles:
http://tinyurl.com/ykgsyuc |
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Posted by aussiemarg [Madame President in Comma Rehab for 2009] |
11/18/2009 at 02:07 PM |
Thanks for the match schedule Master Ace in Sydney we will be getting live coverage through Fox Sports pay tv.Also we are getting Eurosports channel starting soon,which will be great. |
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Posted by Tigress |
11/18/2009 at 02:08 PM |
The main question of the Draw for Fed and Nadal was who would be unlucky and get Djokovic. Score a huge one for Roger there, even though Murray will be tough.
Davydenko of course would have been preferable to Del Potro, but Delpo may not be in top form and either can beat Rafa fairly easily anyway.
Verdasco a bit easier than Soderling, so score one for Fed there despite the perfect H2H with Sod (perfect H2H with Verdasco too anyway). And not getting minion Verdasco in his group is a disaster for Rafa. A virtual automatic RR win down the drain. He's in major trouble now, with 3 superior HC players who've crushed him in their previous matches and can hit past him on HC with ease.
Overall a very good draw. So glad i jinxed Nadal from getting Minion #3 (Verdasco) by giving 6-1 odds that he would. Very very small chance now that he'll get out of RR, and Fed's #1 will be safe.
Now allez Fed for Masters Cup (ATPTourFinal) #5, tying the record. And tear-end #1 for the 5th time. My pick: Roger Federer
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Posted by rockinrobin |
11/18/2009 at 02:17 PM |
kingphil, I agree that Robin Soderling will make it to the final, where he may or may not lose to Djokovic. On a side note, its funny how bad Nadal's luck is, he couldn't have gotten a tougher group. |
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Posted by Slice-n-Dice |
11/18/2009 at 02:28 PM |
"the guy has given me a second life as a seer"
Pete, does this mean you are picking Djokovic, he of the "perfect player" alias?
While he is riding a wave, it would need to be of tsunami proportions to get him all the way through, given his propensity to run out of gas and struggle with his breathing when he has pushed himself too much.
That said, he is, beside Federer, Soderling, Davydenko and Verdasco, probably the least beaten up physicaly at the moment. Which is one reason I am counting on Federer to come through. After all, it's just down the road from his favorite playground. |
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Posted by adicecream |
11/18/2009 at 02:28 PM |
Djokovic looked unbeatable last week. Of course that was last week...
Still, I pick him as of today with the right to change my mind over the weekend. |
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Posted by Slice-n-Dice |
11/18/2009 at 02:30 PM |
Ooops... had I read a little further, I'd have seen that you are NOT speaking about Djokovic. Mea culpa. |
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Posted by Master Ace |
11/18/2009 at 02:32 PM |
Slice-n-Dice,
I think Pete has picked Murray to win and give Britain something to talk about during the offseason to the point where he win his first Slam in Melbourne. |
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Posted by duh, finals |
11/18/2009 at 02:35 PM |
good luck to the Sod, he's got a tough tough half. Rafa and Djokovic through.
I don't think anybody with the letter a, n and d in their name is going to win the other half. Who'll join TMF in the semis? Hopefully Murray. |
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Posted by Mike |
11/18/2009 at 02:41 PM |
My guess is Federer and Murray in the semis vs. Soderling and Djokovic.
Djokovic will defeat Soderling in the final. |
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Posted by Andy |
11/18/2009 at 02:42 PM |
DIsagree Mike, I think Robin has a chance of getting Murray in the final and then winning in 3 tough fought sets for the championship. |
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Posted by thebigapple |
11/18/2009 at 02:51 PM |
Nobody is giving Verdasco any support?
Actually it would be nice to see Soderling in the final..he has been unlucky in some big events. (My positive vibe for Soderling is not to wish Rafa any bad luck.) |
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Posted by katie |
11/18/2009 at 02:52 PM |
I think Robin's been looking absolutely amazing....not even Djokovic can stop him from winning the title |
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Posted by Alexis |
11/18/2009 at 02:56 PM |
"Djokovic looked unbeatable last week. Of course that was last week..."
He won, yes. He definitely looked good against Nadal. But he won in a 3rd set tiebreak to Monfils. And the week before in Basel - he saved MPs against Stepanek in the semi. So he has not been unbeatable, but he came through. But I do see him as the favorite in the B group. If Davydenko is in "Beijing" form, he could run the table in the RR. Soderling will be pumped to just be there and I see him being very tough. Even though Rafa has lost in his last matches with all of them, I would never count him out.
As for Group A, depends on which Fed shows up. Cincy Fed or Basel/Paris Fed. If he struggles from the baseline and his FH is AWOL, it won't be pretty. And let's face it, he struggles much more in Best-of-3 set matches than Best-of-5. As for Murray, Delpo, and Verdasco - we don't really know their fitness state. Of the three, Murray is probably ready to go. Delpo is a huge question-mark. Not sure about Verdasco either.
No player is going to have time to 'play into form' as each match is going to be tough. At least one loss won't kill you. |
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Posted by L.Rubin |
11/18/2009 at 02:59 PM |
"So glad i jinxed Nadal from getting Minion #3 (Verdasco) by giving 6-1 odds that he would."
How curious, Tigress, that you speak of "jinxing" just days after spewing unmitigated nonsense about Rafa's rigged draws. Tasty is the crow, eh?
--Liron |
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Posted by Or |
11/18/2009 at 02:59 PM |
Djoko may defend a title yet, but not this title.
I say Soderling and rafa qualify. |
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Posted by CL |
11/18/2009 at 03:01 PM |
***stunned that Tigress is picking Federer***
Bobblehead Minion Union Shop Steward checking in. Draw seem pretty balanced to me. As others have said, much will depend on the DePot's & Muzz's injury status and whether the Djoker has another strong run in him.
Something else we DON'T know is court speed/bounce.... a bit more of a factor for Rafa than Fed, but it has the potential to make a few players lives easier or harder. |
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Posted by Grant |
11/18/2009 at 03:09 PM |
"How curious, Tigress, that you speak of "jinxing" just days after spewing unmitigated nonsense about Rafa's rigged draws. Tasty is the crow, eh?"
No, no, the rigged draw talk was all a ruse to get the universe to prove her wrong by giving Rafa a tough draw. It certainly wasn't because she believed it, or was just trying to troll Rafa fans. That would be crazy! |
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Posted by Master Ace |
11/18/2009 at 03:12 PM |
CL,
Good point about the court conditions and agree that the draw is balanced. |
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Posted by Alexis |
11/18/2009 at 03:12 PM |
As for Verdasco being a 'minion' to Rafa. Well, no more than some people saying Soderling and Davydenko are to Fed. So, I guess it is perfect that Verdasco is in Roger's group, and Soderling and Davydenko are in Rafa's group.
No 'minions' in sight. |
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Posted by JohnC |
11/18/2009 at 03:13 PM |
Since no one has done the exercise yet, I thought I would see what the combined hardcourt h2h's are for Roger and Rafa vs the opponents in their respective groups.
Roger 7-7
Rafa 4-8 (bearing in mind Rafa and Sod haven't faced each other on h/c before)
So to the extent that one can make a nominally objective judgement about who has the tougher draw, the answer is Rafa. |
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Posted by aussiemarg [Madame President in Comma Rehab for 2009] |
11/18/2009 at 03:17 PM |
Master Ace What is the surface of these court please? |
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Posted by FoT |
11/18/2009 at 03:17 PM |
Well at year end it's going to be tough for everyone. I can't say I'm not "unhappy" about Roger's draw so I hope he can come through. He couldn't make it out of RR last year but this is a new year.
On Djokovic....seeing as he has YET to defend ANY title, (and he is the defending titlest here), until he actually defends ONE, I'm not going to pick him to start here. |
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Posted by Anna |
11/18/2009 at 03:18 PM |
Check again the names : MariusZ Fyrstenberg and Marcin Ma(R?)tkowsKi. You don't know Polish, but it makes a difference. Let's have respect for the countries with history so much longer then USA and which have their own, extraordinary culture and language. |
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Posted by aussiemarg [Madame President in Comma Rehab for 2009] |
11/18/2009 at 03:23 PM |
Well Novak has won back to back titles.Lets see if the momentum he has built will be enough to defend his title here from last year.
Maybe history will be repeating itself.Roger and Rafa were injured and didnt compete.Though there are players here that are carrying injuries. |
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Posted by skip1515 |
11/18/2009 at 03:23 PM |
"old Twibe friend, Skip1515"
Old? You couldn't have picked another adjective? |
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Posted by aussiemarg [Madame President in Comma Rehab for 2009] |
11/18/2009 at 03:26 PM |
skip 1515 LOL! |
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Posted by thebigapple |
11/18/2009 at 03:26 PM |
You are right that it is really the match ups that count and the surface. But for those that worry other things are also salient.
I see Fed has the more highly ranked players..slightly so. Number 4, 5 and 8. With the number 4, Murray being the number 2 just a few weeks ago.
Rafa has a more marginally lower rankers - with each (not sure about Davy) at the best ranking they have been. So we know that Murray can play better than the average 4. But can Soderling play like a #2?
Fed's group also plays two guys that are legitimate contenders as future number 1 (DelPo and Murray). Rafa only had Novak as a potential contender to 1 and many would not agree on that.
Not sure Fed is in a good position - I think his group has deeper talent. |
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Posted by Arun |
11/18/2009 at 03:27 PM |
hello FoT! long time. |
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Posted by tina |
11/18/2009 at 03:27 PM |
This might be precisely the moment for Novak to successfully defend a title. :)
OT alert:
Anyone have a decent stream for the World Cup playoffs? I've seldom had such problems with buffering, on atdhe, on channelsurfing, on fromsport.com. They are all driving me mad. |
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Posted by Master Ace |
11/18/2009 at 03:31 PM |
Skip1515,
Ready for the WTF to start on Sunday and are you going to see the doubles and singles matches? |
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Posted by Master Ace |
11/18/2009 at 03:36 PM |
"On Djokovic....seeing as he has YET to defend ANY title, (and he is the defending titlest here), until he actually defends ONE, I'm not going to pick him to start here."
We know who FoT is choosing?
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Posted by CL |
11/18/2009 at 03:40 PM |
As far as the djoker is concerned, he is one the one most on the teeter totter...he has played and won lately, hence confidence and match toughness. But then again, he has played and won lately, hence fatigue and perhaps even a touch of ennui. Still, since in a RR tournament you don't get a chance to 'play yourself ' in, I would think the Djoker and to a slightly lesser extent Rafa, would benefit the most from having a lot of recent matches under their belts.
Muzz, and the Sod went out an earlier round in Bercy, (did DavyD play?), and the Ent's physical condition is suspect. Verdaso's mental condition, is, as always, suspect. Even more so now that we have discovered he suffers from a bad case of 'misogyny of the cortex with severe blabbermouth affect.'
Fed, meanwhile, has been wandering around pushing chocolates and Banking futures while giving charming interviews. Who KNOWS which TMF/Fed/Fred/Ferd will show up. He may well drift into WTF like a character out of "Summer and Smoke."
The cool thing is, we get to see, no? |
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Posted by Alexis |
11/18/2009 at 03:41 PM |
Well, we can twist and turn these groups and matchups any way we want, but I honestly think that for all of them, it will come down to form-on-the-day. Any one of these guys can beat the other on a good day. |
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Posted by TripleF-FedFanForever (It's the Uncertainty Principle you shmuck!) |
11/18/2009 at 03:46 PM |
Pete gave it away already:
" where's the fun in picking Roger Federer, Novak Djokovic, or Rafael Nadal to win?"
Hahn! Look at the Order. The order!
Now we are reading into Pete's Freudian slips! Whatever.
Hey
Fed's group has one GS winner - the most recent GS.
Rafa's group has one GS winner - a GS ...when was it?
And Rafa has one GS finalist and Fed has one too.
Now we are left with Davy and Verdasco...heck, both made it to GS semis and were lost to Fed and Rafa. What a set up! But wait, the other 2 GS finalists were beaten by Fed. Whew!
I think Fed and Rafa has it very tough and the rest of them have a easy draw.
Or the rest have a very easy draw and Fed and Rafa have to sweat it out.
My monies on Fed this time folks. |
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Posted by Corrie |
11/18/2009 at 03:48 PM |
I hope Rafael and Roger get to the final but also that Rockin' Robin does well and Davy too. Anyone really, other than morose Murray.
I think the Fed /Murray group is harder but only if Delpotro is fit. He must have had a fairly slight stomach strain to even be playing. |
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Posted by Tigress |
11/18/2009 at 03:50 PM |
L. Rubin: "How curious, Tigress, that you speak of "jinxing" just days after spewing unmitigated nonsense about Rafa's rigged draws. Tasty is the crow, eh?"
Don't be a meanie. Being a Rafa fan, I thought you loved and appreciated 'spin'. Besides, we're all Twibe members and love one another, underneath it all. No doubt, no?
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Posted by Cotton Jack |
11/18/2009 at 03:55 PM |
"No 'minions' in sight"
What do you mean?! Murray's got three of them ;-) He's 17-5 against them |
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Posted by Corrie |
11/18/2009 at 03:59 PM |
They're all minions against Murray, "the real #1", the greatest playing the game etc. And as well as the British media extolling him, he'll have the home crowd behind him too. |
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Posted by TripleF-FedFanForever (It's the Uncertainty Principle you shmuck!) |
11/18/2009 at 03:59 PM |
The biceps and skinny-arms are evenly matched in both groups, no? |
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Posted by TripleF-FedFanForever (It's the Uncertainty Principle you shmuck!) |
11/18/2009 at 04:03 PM |
Secret wish:
Would love to see Delpo beat the living fock out of Murray's passive play! That'll get him primed for Dasco later (AO revenge my foot!). |
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Posted by TripleF-FedFanForever (It's the Uncertainty Principle you shmuck!) |
11/18/2009 at 04:04 PM |
Secret wish: Would love to see DP beat the living scrap out of Murray's passive play (and prime him up tender for the Dasco shoot out - AO revenge my feet!) |
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Posted by Lynne (Rafalite) |
11/18/2009 at 04:07 PM |
Strangely enough, Tigress, I'm afraid I can't reciprocate your feelings. I may, however, change my mind if and when you sweeten up a little. |
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Posted by Annie (Vamos Heavenly Creature) |
11/18/2009 at 04:12 PM |
get this: "So glad I jinxed Nadal by giving minion #3 6-1 odds that he would."
Huh?
Using that logic, she can never be wrong. she's mad mad mad I tell you. If he'd gotten Verdasco she would have crowed about how right she is all the time! It's frightening the way she thinks. |
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Posted by BruceLee |
11/18/2009 at 04:13 PM |
When the order of play will be released?
That might significantly influence the result. First round Fed vs Delpo might be much harder to Fed than later rounds. Maybe Delpo could play few matches without getting injured again. |
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Posted by aussiemarg [Madame President in Comma Rehab for 2009] |
11/18/2009 at 04:14 PM |
L,Rubin The Rafa Frazzel Hotline has gone into melt down?
I keep getting Tim's voice wishing everyone one a Merry Christmas?
Please explain. |
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Posted by aussiemarg [Madame President in Comma Rehab for 2009] |
11/18/2009 at 04:14 PM |
L,Rubin The Rafa Frazzel Hotline has gone into melt down?
I keep getting Tim's voice wishing everyone one a Merry Christmas?
Please explain. |
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Posted by aussiemarg [Madame President in Comma Rehab for 2009] |
11/18/2009 at 04:16 PM |
oops sorry for double post,I blame Tim and his voice lol! |
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Posted by TripleF-FedFanForever (It's the Uncertainty Principle you shmuck!) |
11/18/2009 at 04:17 PM |
Sorry for the double! I thought the Mod squad filtered my F word and so I had to retype it.
So Order of Play is not out till Saturday or is it Sunday? |
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Posted by Master Ace |
11/18/2009 at 04:18 PM |
TripleF-FedFanForever,
Play starts Sunday so OOP should be out no later than Saturday. |
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Posted by Annie (Vamos Heavenly Creature) |
11/18/2009 at 04:18 PM |
Lynne: nope, i'm definitely not sitting at her table at thanksgiving. |
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Posted by Corrie |
11/18/2009 at 04:20 PM |
Tigress, I wish you'd shut up about draws and jinxes because a lot of your other comments are very good and they're spoilt by all the silly stuff. And why give Fed fans a bad name? |
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Posted by Annie (Vamos Heavenly Creature) |
11/18/2009 at 04:21 PM |
So folks, if this is an 8-day tournament, do the players get days off in between matches? Will admit to not paying attention to last year's as my fave was injured and not present. |
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Posted by Lynne (Rafalite) |
11/18/2009 at 04:22 PM |
Annie,
'Sweetening up' will not have happened by then. |
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Posted by Master Ace |
11/18/2009 at 04:24 PM |
Annie,
Yes, all players get a day off when RR is played.
Group A - Sunday, Tuesday, and Thursday
Group B - Monday, Wednesday, and Friday
or vice versa |
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Posted by Toriton |
11/18/2009 at 04:25 PM |
thebigapple
"Fed's group also plays two guys that are legitimate contenders as future number 1 (DelPo and Murray). Rafa only had Novak as a potential contender to 1 and many would not agree on that."
You have it twisted my friend... |
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Posted by thebigapple |
11/18/2009 at 04:28 PM |
Well, I hope so... |
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Posted by L.Rubin |
11/18/2009 at 04:28 PM |
"Don't be a meanie. Being a Rafa fan, I thought you loved and appreciated 'spin'. Besides, we're all Twibe members and love one another, underneath it all. No doubt, no?"
Did tigress--Tigress!--just call me a meanie? And did Tigress--Tigress!--just write that she loves the Twibe?
Yes, Rafa is my favorite, but don't forget that I am also a TMF fan. And yes, I do love spin--of the kind that's put on a small green ball.
--Liron
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Posted by TripleF-FedFanForever (It's the Uncertainty Principle you shmuck!) |
11/18/2009 at 04:32 PM |
Master Ace, thanks.
What time RR play starts? 11am local? |
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Posted by Kwaku (the poster formerly known as Kofi) |
11/18/2009 at 04:34 PM |
Tigress: "Very very small chance now that he[Nadal]'ll get out of RR, and Fed's #1 will be safe."
Fed's #1 would be even safer if he did just a little of his own winning in London, but you seem not to have even considered that possibility... for a rabid fan as you are, you seem to trust too little in his own game and too much in Nadal's opponents'... In other words: do you want Fed to just have the number, or to have the game?
"i jinxed Nadal from getting Minion #3 (Verdasco) by giving 6-1 odds that he would"
LOL, this gem is at times laughable, at times deplorable, from beginning to end:
A) In the first place, what is the meaning of "predicting" 6-1 odds on something that is decided at 50-50 random (unless you believe in ATP conspiracies for the YEC group formation)? Even if your "prediction" had turned out true, you wouldn't have been right, you would have been just lucky! (As I told you somewhere else --did you read it?--, if you "predict" two dice will show 6+6, then you throw them and it happens, unless the dice are fake, you have not been right, you have just been lucky.) So what's the point of "predicting" Verdasco in Rafa's half: to say the ATP people "fake the dice" or to let everybody know you are not the most rationality-oriented person out there? As Pauli once said of a theory he disliked, yours was "not even false".
B) Calling Verdasco a minion of Rafa's, apart from not true (obviously you have no idea what the mindset of a professional athlete is), is insulting to him as a professional and even as a person. You are lucky that the site rules allow insults to players; however, at the same time, you are also unlucky they do, because by insulting Verdasco you are also disgracing yourself in front of everybody. Now, if that's what you want, go ahead!
C) Correction: don’t go ahead until after you have realized your gratuitous and false insults to players also offend the posters who like those players (or sensitive and sensible posters in general: I don’t think Verdasco has as many fans as posters hurt by your minion-talk…)
D) I cannot resist, once again, the temptation to go a little into the emotional investments that could possibly lead you to such an irrational and offending statement (although I stand corrected, I cannot read into your mind). Maybe you think it’s a no-lose situation: “If Verdasco lands in Rafa’s half, I will not feel so bad because my prediction (sic) will have been correct (sic) and I will not have ashamed myself with a wrong prediction, but I can say “I told you, I told you”. On the other hand, if he lands in Federer’s half, I will not care to have ashamed myself with a “wrong prediction” (sic), because Verdasco will not be with Nadal, and that will satisfy me more than anything else.”
To that I say: when you predict 6-1 on something that is 50-50, I laugh whatever the outcome (in fact, I laugh as soon as I read it, I don’t need to wait for the outcome). And when you feel good for Verdasco in Fed’s half, as they say, watch out what you wish for! Verdasco can be the one closing Fed’s door to the semis, and as Pete Bodo would say (he knows something about tennis, after all), cupcake draws become difficult and vice-versa as soon as certain matches have to be played…
I could continue for hours, but I think I have already done my part. |
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Posted by CL |
11/18/2009 at 04:34 PM |
"small green ball"???? eco-friendly golf? |
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Posted by BlueDog |
11/18/2009 at 04:35 PM |
"Did tigress--Tigress!--just call me a meanie? And did Tigress--Tigress!--just write that she loves the Twibe?"
This is almost as bizarre as when you (Liron), admonished Tigress for being condescending to NP a few days back :-) |
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Posted by Bhai Mirzai |
11/18/2009 at 04:35 PM |
I would really like to see the TMF ... that is the Fed that is fun to watch for me.
I think the key to Fed's success is his serve. If he gets it right he can beat anyone, but if that is off then anyone in his group can beat him (well may be not Verdasco --- he does not seem to have the belief).
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Posted by L.Rubin |
11/18/2009 at 04:36 PM |
AM,
What do you want me to do, AM? Fir ehim? Tim is clearly evil, and he'll poison my life by sending me 15 talking Federbears and a box of Kleenex for Hanukah.
--Liron
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Posted by aussiemarg [Madame President in Comma Rehab for 2009] |
11/18/2009 at 04:37 PM |
I see it is going to be one of those days Sigh! |
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Posted by L.Rubin |
11/18/2009 at 04:39 PM |
BlueDog,
Yes, that was wrong, but do note that I posted an apology to Tigress soon after CL, bless her heart, pointed out NP's role in that tiff.
--Liron |
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Posted by Bhai Mirzai |
11/18/2009 at 04:39 PM |
On Rafa's side, Djokovic did very well by winning two titles in a row (was it the first time?) ... But winning 3 in a row is going to prove very improbable. But Davydeno seems to have an issue with the belief.
I hope Rafa can play his best and Fed plays his best and they meet in the final. |
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Posted by aussiemarg [Madame President in Comma Rehab for 2009] |
11/18/2009 at 04:39 PM |
L.Rubin Fair enough.Methinks you could keep the tissues.Enough said. |
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Posted by L.Rubin |
11/18/2009 at 04:40 PM |
AM,
fir ehim = fire him
Ughh
--Liron |
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Posted by VC |
11/18/2009 at 04:42 PM |
Russia have missed out on World Cup qualification, commiserations to Sokol and myself. I became a big fan of them in the Euros. |
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Posted by aussiemarg [Madame President in Comma Rehab for 2009] |
11/18/2009 at 04:44 PM |
L.Rubin Me understood lol!
You still Rock,regardless. |
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Posted by BlueDog |
11/18/2009 at 04:46 PM |
I have to say I'm a bit surprised out how much virtual ink is spilled in attacking Tigress. It has the unwanted side effect of making her callously stated OPINIONS seem more important than they are.
I understand how annoying and or angering they are to many Rafa fans, but I think she is taken way too seriously. I'm not defending her, by the way. By all means take a small snipe, but don't debate things that are not worth debating. She's kind of the Ann Coulter of TW. Act accordingly
Also, don't generalize about Fed fans, just because of a few prickly ones. I certainly do not judge Rafa fans by the few outspoken ones (you know who you are). |
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Posted by BlueDog |
11/18/2009 at 04:51 PM |
Liron-
I'm not against the admonishment. It was only funny to me, as NP has written the book on "condescending" around here. I think he would agree with that, and would then point out that his book on "condescending" was a lot better written than mine. |
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Posted by Lynne (Rafalite) |
11/18/2009 at 04:55 PM |
I'm sorry about the Russian team too. They have contributed so much to the sport over the years. Sorry,Sokol. |
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Posted by greenhopper |
11/18/2009 at 04:57 PM |
El Jon's latest mail bag is up. I loooooooved this answer.
Have you noticed a big change in Rafael Nadal's personality over the past year? Before, he was a humble, quiet kid. Now, it seems as if he is speaking out on a lot of issues, and giving pretty strong opinions (e.g. tour schedule, Agassi, etc.). Is this because he has accepted his role as a leader of the men's tour?
-- Jason, Toronto
• Sure. Though I wonder if this isn't simply a function of a) aging; b) taking on responsibility commensurate with your ranking; c) improved confidence in English; and d) growing comfort with the media, as opposed to a concerted strategy. In other words, one would hope that Nadal would be more outspoken than he was as an 18-year-old. No?
--
And especially this.
--
About a month ago, I picked up Sampras' autobiography and re-read it, not knowing Open was soon to hit the shelves. Sampras has battled the "too boring" charge his entire life, but it seems to me that when you read his autobiography next to Agassi's, it puts any defense out of reach. And I'm not talking about Agassi's bombshell revelations, or the family dynamic he was born into. Agassi simply seems to have noticed more and done more thinking about it. Your thoughts?
-- Doyle Srader, Eugene, Ore.
• You know how in other sports, the fans of the winning team will yell, Scoreboard! to quell any protests or antics by the losing opposition? At some level, this ought to be Sampras' defense to all this. As much as I've defended Agassi in recent weeks, I thought his treatment of Sampras was pretty shabby. Sampras did not return my e-mail seeking comment, and I don't entirely blame him -- not sure what there is to be gained. But I wonder if he isn't thinking: Did we come here to be deep thinkers and make interesting observations and amass dramatic stories? Or did we come here to win tennis matches? Assuming it's the latter, I stand by my record. Scoreboard, dude.
All well and good that Agassi can position himself as more self-actualized, more dharma-prone. Sampras won more majors and I suspect that's good enough for him.
--
If am ever in a debate about anything, I want El Jon on my team. |
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Posted by Grant |
11/18/2009 at 04:58 PM |
"She's kind of the Ann Coulter of TW. Act accordingly"
Stake through the heart, or weapons of silver? |
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Posted by Lynne (Rafalite) |
11/18/2009 at 04:59 PM |
BlueDog,
I don't judge Fed fans by one poster. Most of them are delightful people. There comes a time though, when we can't just ignore and scroll. That would make us mealy mouthed. |
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Posted by Mr. X |
11/18/2009 at 05:00 PM |
Hi everyone.
First thing i'll say about the draw is: WTF?
Anyway, i think current form should be the main aspect when taking into consideration the dificulty of the groups. And if we're speaking about current form, i think it's pretty evident that Nole, Kolya and the Sod (by the way, if Pete picked the Sod to win, i riot) are in better form at the moment than Muzz, Delpo and Brooke Shiedls' No.1 fan.
I wouldnt go to analyzing the H2H directly, since the only guy that leads the H2H against all the rest is one who doesnt look like he has many options. Maybe the H2H on HC that JonhC posted is a better indicator.
So, i think Fed's group is easier than Rafa's, and that the players in Fed's group were the best chance Rafa had to get to the SFs. Now, i only hope he wont get 3 beatdowns.
And totally OT, but conmiserations to our Russian friend sokol. |
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Posted by thebigapple |
11/18/2009 at 05:01 PM |
Sorry about Russia. They really should be at the World Cup. Especially in South Africa - the Russians were stalwart supporters in the fight against apartheid and gave money, arms and technical to help free Mandela and the thousands of Africans that were denied their rights. It would have been good to see them hosted. (I will refrain from pointing out the hypocrites that for decades supported the white apartheid regimes, all the time mouthing platitudes to freedom. Why, Mandela was just taken off one countries list of terrorists this year!) |
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Posted by BlueDog |
11/18/2009 at 05:01 PM |
hehe Grant,
I was thinking more: change the channel. |
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Posted by Mr. X |
11/18/2009 at 05:03 PM |
VC,
I was very close of making an NP-like post on the Russian team and the Euro, but it isnt appropiate for this moment. Shame that they are not in. |
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Posted by VC |
11/18/2009 at 05:04 PM |
They set the Euros alight with their quick football, particularly Arshavin who's a joy to watch. Shame a Hiddink side won't be making it, they always punch above their weight. |
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Posted by ladyjulia |
11/18/2009 at 05:05 PM |
GH..thanks for Jon W.
Hmm..Sampras won't make a statement..but you know he is going to get asked about it at a presser. He's gotta say something then.
And Grant..LOL! I think it should be forbidden to read Grant's posts while drinking tea. |
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Posted by VC |
11/18/2009 at 05:06 PM |
Mr. X : What exactly did you mean by NP-like? |
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Posted by thebigapple |
11/18/2009 at 05:08 PM |
My error -
Nelson Mandela was removed from the USA's list on terrorists on July 2, 2008.
In my previous post I said that he was removed this year. |
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Posted by Tigress |
11/18/2009 at 05:10 PM |
Lynne: "I may, however, change my mind if and when you sweeten up a little."
As soon as they're available, i'm planning to stuff myself with chocolate Fed bars from the Lindt Swiss chocolate factory. Which should make me even sweeter (my Sheltie dog, cats, and son think so already). Meanwhile: expect Fed to be himself and go 3-0 in RR.
Expect Nadal to go 0-3 in RR against 3 players who've blasted him off the court in their most recent matches. Possibly he'll eek out one win and go 1-2. Fed's 2009 #1 seems quite safe. Better luck for Rafa in DC, where I think he'll win gloriously. |
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Posted by VC |
11/18/2009 at 05:10 PM |
It's always tougher to qualify for the World Cup from the European Zone, loads of competition. That said, Russia don't have too many excuses losing to Slovenia, which should be a weaker side on paper. |
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Posted by BlueDog |
11/18/2009 at 05:10 PM |
Here's my guess about who Pete picks for WTF, in the podcast: Fed.
I seem to recall a lot of talk about Pete being a soothsayer when he picked Fed for Madrid, against all prevailing wisdom at the time. Then, in this post he said, "Where's the fun in picking Fed etc.", he didn't say he didn't pick him.
This WTF has so much drama around it! Each side of the draw is a bit like rock, paper scissors as far as match-ups and H2H's go. |
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Posted by Grant |
11/18/2009 at 05:13 PM |
"Possibly he'll eek out one win and go 1-2."
eek out a win: to win despite playing the entire match standing on a chair so the mouse can't get you. |
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Posted by BlueDog |
11/18/2009 at 05:19 PM |
See how she ignored me? That's how it's done!
OK, Grant. What can you do with: "Win by the barest of margins"? |
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Posted by Mr. X |
11/18/2009 at 05:23 PM |
VC,
As in typing: "Here's Russia's best match in the Euro 2008", and adding a link to their SF match, which was certainly spectacular:)
And i agree that it's kinda weird that New Zealand will be in the World Cup, and Russia wont, but they had no business losing to Slovenia. I dont think i could name a single player from Slovenia. |
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