Don’t you love to see an unspoiled draw? For this brief moment, no one has been upset, torn a muscle, had a brain cramp, suffered heat stroke, or otherwise let us down. Everything is potential. We're free to look at names and play out upcoming matches in our heads. Blake-Moya, Safin-Roddick, Gasquet-Baghdatis, Mauresmo-Vaidisova: sounds like a fun couple of weeks, doesn’t it?
All that will be ruined by Monday morning, of course, when the first results come in and bring the inevitable bad news. Safin lost to who? Jankovic tripped over what? But for this weekend, anyway, we can imagine whatever we want and keep our dream match-ups alive.
The Men
First Quarter
The problem with Roger Federer is that there are few dream matches that involve him—he’s so good right now that I can’t imagine, hard as I might try, anyone giving him a serious run for his money. Even the three young guns in his quarter, Gasquet, Baghdatis, and Djokovic, will be hard-pressed to do any damage if they face him. It’s not impossible, certainly, but just getting a set—forget three—from Federer will be an achievement. Djokovic would get the first shot at him in the round of 16, then the winner of Gasquet-Baghdatis (we can dream, right?) would play him in the quarters. You’d think this would be a nice surface for Gasquet to make a breakthrough on, but I’d take Baghdatis in their match based on his confidence from last year and continued enthusiasm for the Aussie courts.
Sleeper: Juan Carlos Ferrero. He’s been to the semis here and showed signs of life in 2006.
Semifinalist: Roger Federer
Second Quarter
Ivan Ljubicic is the big dog in this section (he’s the No. 4 seed in the tournament), but he’s got a test right off the bat against Mardy Fish, who has played some decent tennis Down Under this year and is never an easy guy to break. The match to hope for, of course, is a third-rounder between Roddick and Safin. Roddick showed up ready to play in Kooyong this week. He must sense a good chance to make his second straight Slam semi; this may be the softest section of the draw, and he has a winning record against Ljubicic. We all know Safin can play on Rebound Ace, and he finished 2006 on his first high note in two years by clinching the Davis Cup. Which means he’ll go down in straights to Benjamin Becker in the first round. No, he won’t. I hope.
Sleeper: Joachim Johannson. He hit a world-record 51 aces in a loss to Andre Agassi down here one year. He’ll probably win if he does that again.
Semifinalist: Andy Roddick
Third Quarter
This is the aficionado’s section, where Nikolay Davydenko and David Nalbandian have been set up for a quiet quarterfinal showdown. In between are a few landmines, however. Nalbandian may have to face down two former Melbourne semifinalists, Sebastien Grosjean and Tommy Haas. If the German is ever going to reach another Slam semi, it’s probably right here, right now. On Davydenko’s side, there’s a shorn Xavier Malisse, who already has a tournament win in 2007, as well as two monster hitters in Dmitry Tursunov and Tomas Berdych, whose likely third-round encounter will be blast-and-mope tennis at its finest. Tough call here: Both Davydenko and Nalbandian have been hurt recently, but nobody else seems like a good bet to step up his mental game at the right moment.
Sleeper: Luis Horna. He won two rounds last year. (I would give this honor to Chris Guccione, the giant left-handed Australian, but he’s got a tough match-up in the first round against the veteran Olivier Rochus.)
Semifinalist: David Nalbandian
Fourth Quarter
The bottom of the draw will hopefully end in a duel between second seed Rafael Nadal and fifth seed James Blake, who has upset Nadal all three times they’ve played. But we’re a long way from there right now. First Nadal has to get past American Robert Kendrick, who led the Spaniard two sets to love at Wimbledon in 2006 (it was one of the best matches of the year). Blake has an even tougher opener with Carlos Moya, who he’s also playing in the final in Sydney (brutal!). In between there’s Fernando Gonzalez, Lleyton Hewitt, Andy Murray, and a curious and completely unpredictable first-round encounter between Robby Ginepri and Nicolas Almagro.
Sleeper: Kristof Vliegen. The tall, smooth-hitting Belgian could be a tough second-round test for Nadal.
Semifinalist: Rafael Nadal
The Women
First Quarter
With Henin-Hardenne out, Maria Sharapova has moved to the pole position in the draw. Her first interesting match may come in the fourth round, against the talented but inconsistent teenager Ana Ivanovic. But I’ll be curious to see the Serb’s first-rounder, against diminutive American youngster Vania King, who showed a surprising amount of game late last year. Also lurking in that vicinity is a third skilled teen, Poland’s Agnieszka Radwanska. Sharapova’s quarterfinal match is scheduled to be against Patty Schynder, who has had her best Slam results Down Under; she’s 26-10 overall in Melbourne and has reached at least the quarters the last three years.
Sleeper: Alicia Molik. Home-country favorite and wild card will try to start a comeback.
Semifinalist: Maria Sharapova
Second Quarter
Kim Clijsters and Martina Hingis are the top seeds here, though Hingis may have to get past Dinara Safina, who beat her last week, in the fourth round. This may be Clijsters' last best shot at a second Grand Slam. She should be match tough after pulling out three-setters in the semis and final in Sydney this week, and she must be loving the absence of Henin-Hardenne, who beat her in two majors last year. There’s really no one here to challenge Clijsters until the quarters, and Hingis has already been overpowered twice in 2007 by players who don’t hit as big as the Belgian. Clijsters' likely showdown with Sharapova in the semis is looking like the match of the tournament.
Sleeper: Li Na. The top Chinese player is constantly improving and had chances to beat Clijsters in Sydney.
Semifinalist: Kim Clijsters
Third Quarter
On paper, Russians Nadia Petrova and Svetlana Kuznetsova are set to duke it out in the quarters. The trendy pick here is Jelena Jankovic, who won her opening tournament of 2007, then beat Hingis and Mauresmo and had a match point against Clijsters in Sydney. I think losing that final may have helped her, though; now the expectations won’t be quite as sky high (just high). Remember how Petrova came into the French Open last year on a long winning streak and went out in about 45 minutes in the first round? Jankovic has already had the reality check. Still, while Kuznetsova has been injured recently, she beat Jankovic twice at the close of 2006.
Sleeper: Serena Williams. Remember her? If the two-time Aussie champ can navigate her way past Italy’s bizarre Mara Santangelo in the first round, she’ll probably get Petrova in the third, and she’s 5-1 against the Russian.
Semifinalist: Jelena Jankovic
Fourth Quarter
This section features a potentially intriguing quarterfinal, between second seed and defending champ Amelie Mauresmo and long-limbed Czech teen Nicole Vaidisova, who ousted Mauresmo at the French Open in 2006. Vaidisova looked good despite losing to Jankovic in Sydney; she dictated the action and had chances to win. This could be a second breakout major for her, if she can keep her temper in check and get past Elena Dementieva in the round of 16 (the Russian won their only encounter). Mauresmo was bageled in the second set by Jankovic last week, which is not an auspicious way to go into a title defense. But the nice thing about the women’s draw is that she should have a couple rounds to play her way into the tournament. That’s what she did at the year-end championships in Madrid last November, and that’s what I think she’ll do to make it to the semis here. Being the defending champion will give her extra motivation.
Sleeper: Francesca Schiavone. The Italian has beaten Mauresmo the last two times they’ve played. They’re scheduled to face off in the fourth round.
Semifinalist: Amelie Mauresmo
Enjoy the tennis; it starts Sunday evening on ESPN. But remember to fit in some sleep this week (time to get a DVR!). I’ll try to post every other day or so; in between, check out our friend Kamakshi Tandon’s blog from Melbourne on TENNIS.com. Pete Bodo joins her there for the second week.
I played it pretty straight with the picks. Anybody willing to go out on a few limbs?
