It’s that time of year again, when the world turns to the All England Club to see just how classy Roger Federer can be. Will Sire Jacket top himself one more time? Has he become even classier? There’s another Jacket in the works, so we’ll have our answer pretty quickly. But hey, maybe his first-round opponent, Teimuraz Gabashvili, will come out in a cream suit and totally upstage him.
What else is there to keep our attention after that? Just the usual, lower-class stuff. Rafael Nadal will try to go deep enough to maintain his edge over Federer in the race for the year-end No. 1. Justine Henin will attempt to bounce back from two long weeks on clay in Paris and go all the way on grass for the first time. Andy Roddick and Serena Williams are looking to get back to the final weekend. As you know, the draw is out and it’s . . . large. Let’s bring it down to size, starting with the Gentlemen.
The Men
First Quarter
Federer has a moderately testy draw. The first interesting potential match could be with Marat Safin in the third round. I’ve basically written off Safin as a Grand Slam threat, but this seems like an occasion he could rise to. There’s no pressure, he’s beaten Federer before in a major, and he can play well on grass, as much as he hates to admit it—so, Fed in four.
After that, there’s Tommy Haas to deal with, another guy from Federer’s generation who isn’t scared of him. On the other side is Fernando Gonzalez, who Fed beat in straights here two years ago. Who knows how Gonzo will bounce back after going out in the first round in Paris. He should be comfortable on grass by now, anyway.
First-rounder to watch: James Blake vs. Igor Andreev. If Blake can get past the big-swinging Russian (and I think he should), he might finally do a little damage at Wimbledon.
Other first-rounder for U.S. fans to watch: Sam Querrey vs. Alejandro Falla. Can Querrey adapt to grass?
Semifinalist: Roger Federer
Second Quarter
Kamakshi calls this section “neat” (and “wonky”; not sure how those two words go together, but I believe her). Roddick, the third seed in the event and a two-time finalist, is the top name here; he plays Justin Gimelstob first off, which could be a little tricky because Gimel is willing to come forward and has had some decent results on grass. After that, it looks like smooth sailing for Roddick. Ivan Ljubicic, who’s in the final of a grass-court event this week, is a threat in the fourth round, but Roddick knows how to handle him, and the Croat still has Grand Slam disease (he’s been to the semis of just one, last year’s French Open). The top seed on the other side is Andy Murray, who apparently is still too injured to hit his forehand properly—not a good way to begin.
This is also the sleeper section. There are three of them in the bottom half, all from France. Richard Gasquet and Nicolas Mahut both like grass and could meet in the second round, and Jo-Wilfred Tsonga has been tearing up the Challenger circuit. I’m betting he goes down to another of his countryman, Julien Benneteau, in the opener.
Semifinalist: Andy Roddick
Third Quarter
Instead of a section featuring Nikolay Davydenko and David Nalbandian as the top seeds, we now get Davydenko and Novak Djokovic—this truly is a golden age! Nalbandian is here as well, of course, along with other usual Wimbledon suspects like Marcos Baghdatis and Lleyton Hewitt. It has the makings of a tough if unspectacular quarter. For Djokovic, the tournament’s fourth seed, to make the semis, he may have to solve Dr. Ace, Ivo Karlovic, and then Hewitt in the fourth round. Baghdatis, a semifinalist last year and finalist last week in Halle, has a good shot of making the quarters from the top half. If he gets that far, he also has a good shot of beating Djokovic; the Cypriot is a match, from a shotmaking standpoint, for the Serb, and may be more explosive on the forehand side.
Sleeper: Gael Monfils. I know, we’ll be picking Monfils to break out until he’s 35 and playing Challengers, but really, the guy has an immense game that should work in this age of baseline grass-court play. And the top seed near him is the vulnerable Davydenko, who has a 1-5 career record at Wimbledon.
Semifinalist: Marcos Baghdatis
Fourth Quarter
Rafael Nadal wants to win Wimbledon more than any other tournament, so it's only fair that he has to earn it. He’s got a much tougher road than last year, when he made the final. Two of his nemeses, Tomas Berdych and Mikhail Youzhny, are around, and even his first-rounder against Mardy Fish is a pesky matchup. On grass, the American can bail out a horrid ground stroke with a solid serve.
Nadal wouldn’t have to face Berdych until the quarters, which gives the erratic Czech time to implode—but don’t count on it this time; he’s coming off a title in Halle. In the third round, Nadal might get big hitter Robin Soderling, who could threaten for a set or two, though I don’t think he has the mental stamina or consistency to finish the world No. 2. Then there’s Youzhny, who failed to take a set in Rome against Nadal or in Paris against Federer. But this is grass, and Youzhny, a shotmaker, is 12-6 at Wimbledon. So….
Semifinalist: Rafael Nadal
Semifinals: Federer d. Roddick; Nadal d. Baghdatis
Final: Federer d. Nadal
Back tomorrow to talk about the women.
