The pro-tennis schedule is just one illogical quirk after another. We start with a Slam, go six weeks with nothing, then play two identical big events over the course of three weeks. Brad Gilbert—remember him?—has said that he thinks winning the Indian Wells-Key Biscayne double is more difficult than winning a major, and it hasn’t been done all that often (with the predictable exception of Roger Federer, who did it twice in a row in 2005-’06). As individual tournaments, these are two of the very best on the calendar and prove that two genders are better than one. But for players and TV viewers, there’s a sameness to them that robs each of some of its status and uniqueness. Pete Bodo has suggested in the past that Key Biscayne become a Har-Tru tournament. This would give it a Pan American flavor and differentiate it from Indian Wells, while utilizing a recognizably U.S.-based surface (which, since the demise of the U.S. summer clay circuit, isn’t used for any big men’s tournaments these days). Not a bad idea, in my opinion.
That’s obviously not what we’re dealing with in 2008. What we are dealing are slow hard courts, high humidity, and draws that look like these. The men’s side is packed again, and the women’s, despite Maria Sharapova’s withdrawal, is stronger than the one that showed for Indian Wells. There are storylines to follow on both sides, as Novak Djokovic continues his assault on the Federer-Nadal hegemony, while IW winner Ana Ivanovic tries to navigate through a field featuring Justine Henin, the Williams sisters, and Anna Chakvetadze.
The Women
First Quarter
The last time we saw Henin she was beaten by Schiavone in Dubai; before that she had won in Antwerp but gotten waxed in a 6-0 second set by Sharapova in Australia. Now the world No. 1 will try to regain the momentum she had at the end of last season. She doesn’t have the easiest section in which to do it. The third round could bring the hard-working Maria Kirilenko, the fourth Agnes Szavay, and the quarters, as usual, defending champion Serena Williams (can we agree that draw-fixing might be in order here, to keep these two apart a little longer?) To reach Henin, Williams will need to get past Patty Schnyder, who she recently beat in straight sets in Bangalore.
Semifinalist: Serena Williams
Second Quarter
Kuznetsova is the top seed, followed by Venus Williams. Intermittently dangerous names like Radwanska, Peer, and Bartoli are floating between them, but I wouldn’t bet on any of them to put together a long run of excellence. Peer did knock off Kuz in three sets here last year, but she hasn’t been at her best lately. As for Kuz vs. Venus, they’re 3-3 lifetime, with Williams winning their last meeting, at Wimbledon in 2007. She’ll be more rested than the Russian, who just reached the final of IW. That could make a difference by the time they play in the deep humidity of South Florida.
Semifinalist: Venus Williams
Third Quarter
Anna Chakvetadze returns to the tour as the No. 5 seed and has been slotted across from No. 4 Jelena Jankovic. Chakvetadze has a slightly deeper minefield to traverse: Mirza, Schiavone, and Dementieva, compared to Petrova, Knapp, and, um, Safarova (?) for Jankovic. The Russian holds a surprising 6-3 edge over the Serb and should be fresher after skipping IW.
Semifinalist: Anna Chakvetadze
Fourth Quarter
The final section of the women’s draw includes a couple of potentially intriguing match-ups. Ivanovic could face Davenport in the third round, while a semi-sinking Vaidisova is in the same half as a semi-rising Hantuchova, though the Czech would have to get past Zvonareva to make that happen. Ivanovic is on a roll and still hungry, and there’s no reason to think she won’t keep it going at least until the semis.
Semifinalist: Ana Ivanovic
Semis: Serena Williams d. Venus Williams; Chakvetadze d. Ivanovic
Final: S. Williams d. Chakvetadze
The Men
First Quarter
Federer comes in looking to regain his form after a few uncharacteristic defeats. He’ll start with the winner of Isner-Monfils, move on to his countryman Stanislas Wawrinka, and then perhaps get the winner of Hewitt-Robredo. The bottom half of this section offers a tantalizing round of 16 possibility: Roddick vs. Tsonga, who had a memorable tussle in Melbourne in 2007. I’ll pick a rested Roddick if that match comes to fruition, but I can’t pick him over Federer, even if Rog is off-form, in the quarters.
Semifinalist: Roger Federer
Second Quarter
Davydenko-Murray and Youzhny-Ferrer are the highest-seeded pairs for the round of 16, and you’re guess is as good as mine as to who makes it out the section. Along the way, Davydenko could be tested by Gulbis or Kohlschreiber; Murray by Ancic in the second round; and Youzhny by Safin, a surging Mardy Fish, or Almagro. Ferrer, who plays well in Key Biscayne but may be ready for a slump (he lost to Taik-Lee in IW), has the easiest draw. He’s play the winner of Tipsarevic-Verdasco in the third round. It’s a solid section and ripe with potential upsets.
Semifinalist: David Ferrer
Third Quarter
Djokovic is obviously the man to beat in this quarter, and I’m not going to pick Andreev, the seed closest to him, to pull any upsets again. The other side is headed by Richard Gasquet, which means it’s up for grabs (Gasquet was a big disappointment against Blake at IW, seemingly going through the motions against a guy he’d never lost to before). The other seeds here are Ferrer, Berdych, and Lopez; the other players of note are Del Potro, Tursunov, Nishikori, and Querrey. But you can’t bet against the the defending champion, Djokovic, right now, even if he will be tired.
Semifinalist: Novak Djokovic
Fourth Quarter
Nadal and Nalbandian are the players to beat at the bottom of the draw. James Blake is the most threatening guy between them, and he’s scheduled to face Nalbandian in the round of 16, while Nadal could get Mathieu. Otherwise, the names of note are Haas (who plays Kiefer first in a clash of the testy Germans), Kuerten (he starts his swansong U.S event against Grosjean), Stepanek, Moya and Ljubicic. Nadal showed some good stuff (coming back to beat Tsonga and Blake) and very bad stuff (his loss to Djokovic) in IW, and I would expect some of the same inconsistency. Haas or Niemenin could be a test early, but there’s no reason to think he won’t at least battle his way to a rematch with Djokovic in the semis.
Semifinalist: Rafael Nadal
Semifinals: Federer d. Ferrer; Djokovic d. Nadal
Final: Djokovic d. Federer
I won’t be heading to Key Biscayne this time, but we’ll have your friends Pete Bodo and Tom Perrotta on site, and I’ll be chiming in on the TV coverage. It’s FSN again, so it may be a bit…erratic. CBS takes over on the final weekend.
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