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Tennis on the Edge
Posted 04/22/2008 @ 12 :45 AM

McWe’ll look at the bright side of the schedule today. No other sport gets to start fresh as often as tennis. Here we are four months into the season, and turning on my TV this morning it feels like a new day. The court is orange, the sun is out, the crowd is highly Euro, and the Mediterranean, lapping forward, surrounds everything from below. We’re in Monte Carlo again, one of the ancient capitals of the game. This is tennis on the edge, of oblivion and vacation.

The draw is generally loaded, with the notable exceptions of Americans Andy Roddick and James Blake. Since the tournament is already under way, I’ll condense my usual preview. At the top, Federer has work ahead with either Ramirez-Hidalgo or Simon, who can both play on clay, and Nalbandian in the distance. In the second quarter, I’d like to see Djokovic vs. Murray, and I can’t believe I’m looking at Sam Querrey’s name in the second round. On the other side, the man who may stand in the way of yet another Rafael Nadal title run is his countryman and two-time conqueror last year, David Ferrer. But Nadal likes nothing more than to settle his scores on dirt.

Semifinals: Nadal d. Almagro; Djokovic d. Nalbandian
Final: Nadal d. Djokovic

I caught one full match today, Andy Murray vs. Feliciano Lopez. Like the setting, the play felt fresh. Clay allows for so much more than hard courts—here we suddenly see drop shots, lobs, arcing topspin from far behind the baseline, touch battles around the net, and rallies that force both guys to cover every corner of the court.

This is the first I’ve seen of Murray in a while, maybe since he lost to Haas in Indian Wells. He’s here with an expanded entourage that includes his mom, agent, trainer, and clay coach Alex Corretja. The size of this crew makes me wonder just how confident Murray is in himself—multiple coaches, helpers, and cheerleaders is more the Martina Navratilova style than the way of a sour Scot, it seems to me.

Maybe it can be his style as well: Murray is calmer throughout the match than he ever was with Brad Gilbert. He and Lopez proceed to play as entertaining and high-quality a first-rounder as you’re likely to see. Points go generally as follows: Lopez hits his awkward, truncated, slightly leaping topspin forehand to Murray’s compact two-handed backhand, and then they move each other around until Murray gets a chance at a drop shot, at which point it becomes a mad scramble on both ends.

Murray hits a drop shot on the second point. By the fourth game, he’s hit seven of them. He drops from both sides, from any spot on the court, and from any point in a rally. He rarely, if ever, misses one, and they almost always result in him winning the point. Maybe Gilbert’s war against the Murray drop shot was misguided. The Scot doesn’t own a putaway forehand stroke—he keeps the face too closed and takes the ball too late—so the drop functions as his kill shot. He sets up points with it in mind. I’ve never seen that before and it isn’t ideal, but if he doesn't miss a drop, it’s hard to argue against it.

I’ve never liked Lopez’s game. Maybe it’s his stiff movement, rec-style serve, or spoiled aura—can a man with a face like his really be a great player? There hasn’t been a universally handsome No. 1 since Stefan Edberg, right? (I’m a bad judge, but its seems like a guy such as, say, Marat Safin is too good-looking to be the top player—the lord giveth one thing, and the lord taketh away another.) But for today I’ve changed my mind about Lopez's play. He does his best within his limits, the same kind of limits you see among club players. He pulls up on his forehand and can’t come over his backhand; most crucial, he seems constrained by self-skepticism, as if he’s waiting to lose a tight first set. Which he does. Despite playing his best and most wide-open tennis at the end of the first-set tiebreaker, he manages to lose it 7-5.

AmWhat is holding Murray back? Why is he not Djokovic? I’d say there are two reasons. First is the forehand I just mentioned. He doesn’t get under it enough to take a mid-court ball and punish it. The one common denominator among Federer, Nadal, and Djokovic is their ability to end points with their forehands whenever they have a chance. Mortals have to end points in more difficult ways. Hence the Murray drop shot.

In a broader sense, I’d say Murray has a problem with authority. Namely, his own. Tennis, like all sports involving a ball, is about what you do when you have authority over that ball. You serve and you take control; then you cede it to your opponent. Murray, with his return, fights authority well—he’s a terminal adolescent in that way. But he hasn’t learned to exercise his own authority yet. There’s a part of him that still considers himself a child in a man’s game. Like Lleyton Hewitt, he’s not a natural attacker. Murray doesn’t have point-ending power or a point-ending mentality. He typically hits his winners on the run and from defensive positions. And witness his many failed attempts to serve out matches. It happens again today. Serving at 5-2 in the second set, Murray hits two backhands from well behind the baseline that fall into the net and is broken. But he holds firm at 5-4, finishing the match with a full-swing forehand down the line, into the corner, and out of Lopez’s reach.

It’s a small step forward, the only kind in tennis, and one in a long series that must get him from fighting authority to exercising it.

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First!!! 3rd time for me.

You are a brave, brave man.

Analysis of a Masters draw and Roger's name not even in the Semis?

Who does, pray tell, beats TMF in this tournament?

hey steve, how about rafter?

i initially picked almagro too to come out of that quarter. but i think that quarter's the most loaded (well, if it's davydenko's quarter then it could be anyone, right?)

oh, and picking nalbandian? haven't learned yet to not pick him for anything? ;)

4th thats my best eva!!!!

Murray is just way too defensive no matter what surface he plays on. And the way one plays tennis is a question of character and personality. I just don't like his tennis though I think he has potentials.

Funny enough but I've never seen him play more gilbert-like ever since they split.

i think it's funny you used the phrase "here we suddenly see drop shots" ect. because i can never see the ball on TV in monte carlo, this is Absolutely ridicules

This clay season should be exciting. Thanks for the updates Steve. Have a good tournament Rafa...Djoko and Fed, please spice up the tourney however you can.
Blake and Roddick. You're losing ranking points and I don't know why you don't care. If you want to beat the top players Roddick it wouldn't hurt to get on a surface when you have to learn how to construct points.

Hey Steve.
No TMF in the semi. You are either too bold or very biased.
VishyVolley

I agree Almagro is one of the best on clay but when it comes to big tournaments he always disappoints..i hope he rises to the challenge this time...

A continuation of Which Came First, The Chicken or The Egg?

Was it Bodo who wrote about Federer that he suffers, if you can call it that, from seeing a match as a contest of ability rather than of will? I agree that Murray often appears to believe matches are contests of cleverness.

I enjoyed this very much. Thanks.


Steve and Peter never pick Roger on clay. Apparently they are blind to the fact that he's proven with his results to consistently be #2 in the world on clay over the last 3 years running, and other than to Rafa, he rarely loses to anyone. However, not picking him for final or semi at least is brave, and probably wrong and stupid too. He's beaten Nalbandian many times, and should beat Djokovic on all surfaces when he's playing well and completely healthy, not yet now.

Just a question about Masters Series rules: I thought the top players were required to play Masters Series events. Do Roddick and Blake have to pay a fine or something?

Also, are there other top-10 players, assuming they're not injured, who skip the occasional Masters?

Andy

they pay fines

Sorry, my fellow Roger posters but I agree with Steve's picks. I got Nalby beating Federer because (1) Roger baseline game is not up to his standards (2) David will be motivated to do well (3) David will be able to dictate play with his 2 handed shots and kept the ball above Roger's shoulders on the BH side. Don't forget that David was giving Roger a difficult time in the semis at 2006 Roland Garros until he had to retire due to abdominal injury. If Roger is able to make the finals, it would be a good accomplishment and give him the much needed confidence for the 2008 season.
On Almagro, I hope he is able to bounce back from losing a 5-2 double break lead to Ferrer on Sunday and do make his first Masters SF. He was trying to 3-peat Valencia. Nico gave Roger problems in the QF of 2006 Rome. So far in 2008, Nicolas has been the best player on clay with 2 titles (Costa do Sauipe-Moya, Acapulco-Nalbandian), final (Valencia-Ferrer) , and a quarterfinal (retired against Chela in Buenos Aires).
On Djokovic, it will be interesting to see how he does on clay season this year since he won AO.
On Nadal, I think he will 4-peat Monte Carlo, Barcelona, Rome, and Roland Garros. He had good results in IW(SF) and KB(F) which will give him confidence going in to his favorite part of the season.

It is strange that Steve predicted Nalbi to win against Roger, because Nalbi was not fully fit 2 weeks ago when he won the 5 setter to Soderling. But we´ll see soon in what form he is. If he is fully fit and beats Roger, he will afterwards beat Novak.

I think that Nadal is a lock in the final and why not a lock for the championship.

I believe they can still skip two masters series until next year without a fine.

Clay court season - will Rafa maintain his movement of previous seasons or will he have recovery problems from long matches?

Will Dojko have physical problems? He seems to have ongoing problems with his back as I have never felt his numerous physio visits mid match are as much game playing as a tendency for his back to tighten up. If that is true, it could have an effect on his overall career and most evident during the clay swing.

Can Roger recover his fitness and energy level in time to play his best tennis or will he continue to demonstrate the lack of movement and lack of general energy level of the first quarter?

I think we may very well see some suprises for this year's clay court season but I can't pretent to have any confidence how it will play out.

Andy - 8:06

Players can skip 2 Masters events per year then there's an increasing scale of fines (unless injured).

A lot's being said about the Americans not playing Monte Carlo but Baghdatis, Gonzalez and Canas have also skipped it this year. Berdych I believe is still suffering from the ankle injury he picked up playing DC.

Canas, Berdych, Roddick and Blake have all entered the World Team Championships on clay so presumably have made the decision that 2 Masters but some guaranteed match play is the right amount of preparation pre Roland Garros. As Rafa's pointed out there are a lot of clay tournaments going on in a short period of time so I suppose for many something has to be dropped.

I'm generally big on doing what works, but I do SO detest Murray's dropshotting even if he doesn't miss them as you said. It's just way too much. And it functions as his 'kill shot'??? Bleh. "Mortals have to end points in more difficult ways. Hence the Murray drop shot." I've always gotten the sense you're very high on Murray overall, Steve, but I also like how you keep it real with clever humor. VERY funny stuff! ;)

Why is Murray not Djokovic? Interesting...my answer recalls recent topics CE has addressed. Primarily, ability & technique. Secondarily, personality. Murray is intriguing b/c he's a Genuine Tennis Player as opposed to a good athlete playing tennis. I dig that but I'm still not sure how it's going to all work out it for him.

I've always liked Lopez' game excepting the complete lack of a backhand. I hesitate to use the word 'talent', remembering a MAJOR debate that ensued at TW many moons ago over the definition of that word (Dunlop? temes? remember that?), but I think Lopez has quite a bit of it. No kidding around...I think it *might* actually be that b/c he has a face like he does, he hasn't maximized his talent (or developed any semblance of a real backhand to speak of?). I could be wrong, of course. ;)

JMO Marat Safin isn't *that* good-looking (not like Feli). If he weren't a professional tennis player and I had no sense of his off-court personality, I wouldn't swoon over him if I passed him on the street. Seems to me the lord gave him many gifts but tooketh away a sustained single focus. It might not be bad thing in the grand scheme.

Hmm...not super confident about all of your SFist picks, but I doubt it matters 'cuz I think you've got the Final right. ;)

Steve,

Eventhough I am a Federer fan I think that if Nalbandian happens to beat Federer (which is not a crazy idea) he will make it to the final. Why? He will have that excellent momentum of form and confidence (from beating Federer) going and the last 2 times that happened he ended up winning the tournament (Madrid and Paris Bercy). I noticed how incredible it is in tennis when certain things follow a pattern. The thing with Nalbandian though is that the most consistent thing about his game is how inconsisten or unpredictable it is, heck! if he could have found a way to play consistently for the last 4 years he would have been the one (alongside Nadal) fighting with Federer for slams and the no. 1 spot.

Now, the more than possible final match between Nalbandian and Nadal would be as interesting as it could get, Nalbadian will feel confident from having beaten the Spaniard twice, he knows how to play him in the same way he knows how to play Federer: PLAYING BY THE BOOK.

Nalbandian has the game to beat just about anybody on any given day on any given surface BUT (and this is a big BUT) Nadal is a monster on the red stuff. Seeing how Nadal's crazy topspin cross-court forehand matches up against Nalbandian's two-handed backhand is the most interesting aspect of this potential match up. Also, beware of the fact that the surface allows Nadal to cover more real state than the surface back in Madrid or Paris so he'll force Nalbandian to come up with another couple of tough shots (The Argentinean is more than capable of deliveringn though). After all (to me), Nalbandian has THE BEST backhand in the tour right now, he's got to have it clicking however.

So I predict Nalbandian beats Nadal in the finals. I'll have to wait for Roger to show up greatly in Rome.

Not going to raise a fuss about not having Roger in the semis, but counting on Nalbandian to succeed is like blowing him the kiss of death...

It seems that Steve was right because Murray had difficulties to close the set and was broken when trying to do so.

As much as I hate to admit it, I don't see Fed in the F either, his baseline game during Estoril did not engender confidence...I just hope he plays well enough to get to the QF date with Fat Again Dave..

That said there is no quarantee either that Fat again Dave will make it to the QF, as Sam says, he is consistently inconsistent...

just so everyone knows, this is the first time i have ever picked federer to lose before a semi. which may be good from him—the first and only time i picked nadal to lose before a semi was indian wells in 2007.

i like to watch murray play, d-wiz, more than a lot of other guys at his level, just because of the variety and 6th tennis sense—which he overuses. sometimes it's better to be stupid and predictable.

djokovic looking a little off at times today but very determined.

Steve,

I did notice your omission of Federer in your semifinals picks... and I wondered where, and to whom, you think he'll go down.

I like your analysis of Murray, ecept that I do believe he can hit a huge forehand; unfortunately, he seems most prone to do it only on return of serve. Perhaps he needs to counter/use his opponent's power in order to hit big -- and that would be a problem in terms of his ability to play sustained attacking tennis. I really do like his return of serve, and his drop shot, and he mixes up his spins and pace and trajectories very very well -- but it does seem more of a collegiate or top-junior style. That may not be a bad thing in and of itself, provided he can come up with the goods when he gets his opportunity.

But I think you nailed it on the head by pointing to his "adolescent" disregard for or rebellion against authority, hence he's most effective when counterpunching or going for broke when cornered or nearly out of the point.

BTW - did you see my response/comment to your ESPN blog about Paul-Henri Mathieu and Richard Gasquet? It seems the average ESPN fan knows very little about tennis and could care about it even less.... Sad. Keep on plugging.

another interesting pattern that may work in Nalbandian's favor: Should he reach the final against Nadal he would much likely beaten the top three players in a row again: Federer in the QF's, Djokovic in the SF's and Nadal in the final...

I really hope this is not the case though and Federer goes on to proove everyone (including me I have to admit) wrong by storming to the title in a "I am showing you I am the best there is" kind of way. Too much to ask? Maybe but it is far from impossible.

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