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« Book Club: The Quest Getting Dirty »
Tennis on the Edge
Posted 04/22/2008 @ 12 :45 AM

McWe’ll look at the bright side of the schedule today. No other sport gets to start fresh as often as tennis. Here we are four months into the season, and turning on my TV this morning it feels like a new day. The court is orange, the sun is out, the crowd is highly Euro, and the Mediterranean, lapping forward, surrounds everything from below. We’re in Monte Carlo again, one of the ancient capitals of the game. This is tennis on the edge, of oblivion and vacation.

The draw is generally loaded, with the notable exceptions of Americans Andy Roddick and James Blake. Since the tournament is already under way, I’ll condense my usual preview. At the top, Federer has work ahead with either Ramirez-Hidalgo or Simon, who can both play on clay, and Nalbandian in the distance. In the second quarter, I’d like to see Djokovic vs. Murray, and I can’t believe I’m looking at Sam Querrey’s name in the second round. On the other side, the man who may stand in the way of yet another Rafael Nadal title run is his countryman and two-time conqueror last year, David Ferrer. But Nadal likes nothing more than to settle his scores on dirt.

Semifinals: Nadal d. Almagro; Djokovic d. Nalbandian
Final: Nadal d. Djokovic

I caught one full match today, Andy Murray vs. Feliciano Lopez. Like the setting, the play felt fresh. Clay allows for so much more than hard courts—here we suddenly see drop shots, lobs, arcing topspin from far behind the baseline, touch battles around the net, and rallies that force both guys to cover every corner of the court.

This is the first I’ve seen of Murray in a while, maybe since he lost to Haas in Indian Wells. He’s here with an expanded entourage that includes his mom, agent, trainer, and clay coach Alex Corretja. The size of this crew makes me wonder just how confident Murray is in himself—multiple coaches, helpers, and cheerleaders is more the Martina Navratilova style than the way of a sour Scot, it seems to me.

Maybe it can be his style as well: Murray is calmer throughout the match than he ever was with Brad Gilbert. He and Lopez proceed to play as entertaining and high-quality a first-rounder as you’re likely to see. Points go generally as follows: Lopez hits his awkward, truncated, slightly leaping topspin forehand to Murray’s compact two-handed backhand, and then they move each other around until Murray gets a chance at a drop shot, at which point it becomes a mad scramble on both ends.

Murray hits a drop shot on the second point. By the fourth game, he’s hit seven of them. He drops from both sides, from any spot on the court, and from any point in a rally. He rarely, if ever, misses one, and they almost always result in him winning the point. Maybe Gilbert’s war against the Murray drop shot was misguided. The Scot doesn’t own a putaway forehand stroke—he keeps the face too closed and takes the ball too late—so the drop functions as his kill shot. He sets up points with it in mind. I’ve never seen that before and it isn’t ideal, but if he doesn't miss a drop, it’s hard to argue against it.

I’ve never liked Lopez’s game. Maybe it’s his stiff movement, rec-style serve, or spoiled aura—can a man with a face like his really be a great player? There hasn’t been a universally handsome No. 1 since Stefan Edberg, right? (I’m a bad judge, but its seems like a guy such as, say, Marat Safin is too good-looking to be the top player—the lord giveth one thing, and the lord taketh away another.) But for today I’ve changed my mind about Lopez's play. He does his best within his limits, the same kind of limits you see among club players. He pulls up on his forehand and can’t come over his backhand; most crucial, he seems constrained by self-skepticism, as if he’s waiting to lose a tight first set. Which he does. Despite playing his best and most wide-open tennis at the end of the first-set tiebreaker, he manages to lose it 7-5.

AmWhat is holding Murray back? Why is he not Djokovic? I’d say there are two reasons. First is the forehand I just mentioned. He doesn’t get under it enough to take a mid-court ball and punish it. The one common denominator among Federer, Nadal, and Djokovic is their ability to end points with their forehands whenever they have a chance. Mortals have to end points in more difficult ways. Hence the Murray drop shot.

In a broader sense, I’d say Murray has a problem with authority. Namely, his own. Tennis, like all sports involving a ball, is about what you do when you have authority over that ball. You serve and you take control; then you cede it to your opponent. Murray, with his return, fights authority well—he’s a terminal adolescent in that way. But he hasn’t learned to exercise his own authority yet. There’s a part of him that still considers himself a child in a man’s game. Like Lleyton Hewitt, he’s not a natural attacker. Murray doesn’t have point-ending power or a point-ending mentality. He typically hits his winners on the run and from defensive positions. And witness his many failed attempts to serve out matches. It happens again today. Serving at 5-2 in the second set, Murray hits two backhands from well behind the baseline that fall into the net and is broken. But he holds firm at 5-4, finishing the match with a full-swing forehand down the line, into the corner, and out of Lopez’s reach.

It’s a small step forward, the only kind in tennis, and one in a long series that must get him from fighting authority to exercising it.

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Comments

First!!! 3rd time for me.

You are a brave, brave man.

Analysis of a Masters draw and Roger's name not even in the Semis?

Who does, pray tell, beats TMF in this tournament?

hey steve, how about rafter?

i initially picked almagro too to come out of that quarter. but i think that quarter's the most loaded (well, if it's davydenko's quarter then it could be anyone, right?)

oh, and picking nalbandian? haven't learned yet to not pick him for anything? ;)

4th thats my best eva!!!!

Murray is just way too defensive no matter what surface he plays on. And the way one plays tennis is a question of character and personality. I just don't like his tennis though I think he has potentials.

Funny enough but I've never seen him play more gilbert-like ever since they split.

i think it's funny you used the phrase "here we suddenly see drop shots" ect. because i can never see the ball on TV in monte carlo, this is Absolutely ridicules

This clay season should be exciting. Thanks for the updates Steve. Have a good tournament Rafa...Djoko and Fed, please spice up the tourney however you can.
Blake and Roddick. You're losing ranking points and I don't know why you don't care. If you want to beat the top players Roddick it wouldn't hurt to get on a surface when you have to learn how to construct points.

Hey Steve.
No TMF in the semi. You are either too bold or very biased.
VishyVolley

I agree Almagro is one of the best on clay but when it comes to big tournaments he always disappoints..i hope he rises to the challenge this time...

A continuation of Which Came First, The Chicken or The Egg?

Was it Bodo who wrote about Federer that he suffers, if you can call it that, from seeing a match as a contest of ability rather than of will? I agree that Murray often appears to believe matches are contests of cleverness.

I enjoyed this very much. Thanks.


Steve and Peter never pick Roger on clay. Apparently they are blind to the fact that he's proven with his results to consistently be #2 in the world on clay over the last 3 years running, and other than to Rafa, he rarely loses to anyone. However, not picking him for final or semi at least is brave, and probably wrong and stupid too. He's beaten Nalbandian many times, and should beat Djokovic on all surfaces when he's playing well and completely healthy, not yet now.

Just a question about Masters Series rules: I thought the top players were required to play Masters Series events. Do Roddick and Blake have to pay a fine or something?

Also, are there other top-10 players, assuming they're not injured, who skip the occasional Masters?

Andy

they pay fines

Sorry, my fellow Roger posters but I agree with Steve's picks. I got Nalby beating Federer because (1) Roger baseline game is not up to his standards (2) David will be motivated to do well (3) David will be able to dictate play with his 2 handed shots and kept the ball above Roger's shoulders on the BH side. Don't forget that David was giving Roger a difficult time in the semis at 2006 Roland Garros until he had to retire due to abdominal injury. If Roger is able to make the finals, it would be a good accomplishment and give him the much needed confidence for the 2008 season.
On Almagro, I hope he is able to bounce back from losing a 5-2 double break lead to Ferrer on Sunday and do make his first Masters SF. He was trying to 3-peat Valencia. Nico gave Roger problems in the QF of 2006 Rome. So far in 2008, Nicolas has been the best player on clay with 2 titles (Costa do Sauipe-Moya, Acapulco-Nalbandian), final (Valencia-Ferrer) , and a quarterfinal (retired against Chela in Buenos Aires).
On Djokovic, it will be interesting to see how he does on clay season this year since he won AO.
On Nadal, I think he will 4-peat Monte Carlo, Barcelona, Rome, and Roland Garros. He had good results in IW(SF) and KB(F) which will give him confidence going in to his favorite part of the season.

It is strange that Steve predicted Nalbi to win against Roger, because Nalbi was not fully fit 2 weeks ago when he won the 5 setter to Soderling. But we´ll see soon in what form he is. If he is fully fit and beats Roger, he will afterwards beat Novak.

I think that Nadal is a lock in the final and why not a lock for the championship.

I believe they can still skip two masters series until next year without a fine.

Clay court season - will Rafa maintain his movement of previous seasons or will he have recovery problems from long matches?

Will Dojko have physical problems? He seems to have ongoing problems with his back as I have never felt his numerous physio visits mid match are as much game playing as a tendency for his back to tighten up. If that is true, it could have an effect on his overall career and most evident during the clay swing.

Can Roger recover his fitness and energy level in time to play his best tennis or will he continue to demonstrate the lack of movement and lack of general energy level of the first quarter?

I think we may very well see some suprises for this year's clay court season but I can't pretent to have any confidence how it will play out.

Andy - 8:06

Players can skip 2 Masters events per year then there's an increasing scale of fines (unless injured).

A lot's being said about the Americans not playing Monte Carlo but Baghdatis, Gonzalez and Canas have also skipped it this year. Berdych I believe is still suffering from the ankle injury he picked up playing DC.

Canas, Berdych, Roddick and Blake have all entered the World Team Championships on clay so presumably have made the decision that 2 Masters but some guaranteed match play is the right amount of preparation pre Roland Garros. As Rafa's pointed out there are a lot of clay tournaments going on in a short period of time so I suppose for many something has to be dropped.

I'm generally big on doing what works, but I do SO detest Murray's dropshotting even if he doesn't miss them as you said. It's just way too much. And it functions as his 'kill shot'??? Bleh. "Mortals have to end points in more difficult ways. Hence the Murray drop shot." I've always gotten the sense you're very high on Murray overall, Steve, but I also like how you keep it real with clever humor. VERY funny stuff! ;)

Why is Murray not Djokovic? Interesting...my answer recalls recent topics CE has addressed. Primarily, ability & technique. Secondarily, personality. Murray is intriguing b/c he's a Genuine Tennis Player as opposed to a good athlete playing tennis. I dig that but I'm still not sure how it's going to all work out it for him.

I've always liked Lopez' game excepting the complete lack of a backhand. I hesitate to use the word 'talent', remembering a MAJOR debate that ensued at TW many moons ago over the definition of that word (Dunlop? temes? remember that?), but I think Lopez has quite a bit of it. No kidding around...I think it *might* actually be that b/c he has a face like he does, he hasn't maximized his talent (or developed any semblance of a real backhand to speak of?). I could be wrong, of course. ;)

JMO Marat Safin isn't *that* good-looking (not like Feli). If he weren't a professional tennis player and I had no sense of his off-court personality, I wouldn't swoon over him if I passed him on the street. Seems to me the lord gave him many gifts but tooketh away a sustained single focus. It might not be bad thing in the grand scheme.

Hmm...not super confident about all of your SFist picks, but I doubt it matters 'cuz I think you've got the Final right. ;)

Steve,

Eventhough I am a Federer fan I think that if Nalbandian happens to beat Federer (which is not a crazy idea) he will make it to the final. Why? He will have that excellent momentum of form and confidence (from beating Federer) going and the last 2 times that happened he ended up winning the tournament (Madrid and Paris Bercy). I noticed how incredible it is in tennis when certain things follow a pattern. The thing with Nalbandian though is that the most consistent thing about his game is how inconsisten or unpredictable it is, heck! if he could have found a way to play consistently for the last 4 years he would have been the one (alongside Nadal) fighting with Federer for slams and the no. 1 spot.

Now, the more than possible final match between Nalbandian and Nadal would be as interesting as it could get, Nalbadian will feel confident from having beaten the Spaniard twice, he knows how to play him in the same way he knows how to play Federer: PLAYING BY THE BOOK.

Nalbandian has the game to beat just about anybody on any given day on any given surface BUT (and this is a big BUT) Nadal is a monster on the red stuff. Seeing how Nadal's crazy topspin cross-court forehand matches up against Nalbandian's two-handed backhand is the most interesting aspect of this potential match up. Also, beware of the fact that the surface allows Nadal to cover more real state than the surface back in Madrid or Paris so he'll force Nalbandian to come up with another couple of tough shots (The Argentinean is more than capable of deliveringn though). After all (to me), Nalbandian has THE BEST backhand in the tour right now, he's got to have it clicking however.

So I predict Nalbandian beats Nadal in the finals. I'll have to wait for Roger to show up greatly in Rome.

Not going to raise a fuss about not having Roger in the semis, but counting on Nalbandian to succeed is like blowing him the kiss of death...

It seems that Steve was right because Murray had difficulties to close the set and was broken when trying to do so.

As much as I hate to admit it, I don't see Fed in the F either, his baseline game during Estoril did not engender confidence...I just hope he plays well enough to get to the QF date with Fat Again Dave..

That said there is no quarantee either that Fat again Dave will make it to the QF, as Sam says, he is consistently inconsistent...

just so everyone knows, this is the first time i have ever picked federer to lose before a semi. which may be good from him—the first and only time i picked nadal to lose before a semi was indian wells in 2007.

i like to watch murray play, d-wiz, more than a lot of other guys at his level, just because of the variety and 6th tennis sense—which he overuses. sometimes it's better to be stupid and predictable.

djokovic looking a little off at times today but very determined.

Steve,

I did notice your omission of Federer in your semifinals picks... and I wondered where, and to whom, you think he'll go down.

I like your analysis of Murray, ecept that I do believe he can hit a huge forehand; unfortunately, he seems most prone to do it only on return of serve. Perhaps he needs to counter/use his opponent's power in order to hit big -- and that would be a problem in terms of his ability to play sustained attacking tennis. I really do like his return of serve, and his drop shot, and he mixes up his spins and pace and trajectories very very well -- but it does seem more of a collegiate or top-junior style. That may not be a bad thing in and of itself, provided he can come up with the goods when he gets his opportunity.

But I think you nailed it on the head by pointing to his "adolescent" disregard for or rebellion against authority, hence he's most effective when counterpunching or going for broke when cornered or nearly out of the point.

BTW - did you see my response/comment to your ESPN blog about Paul-Henri Mathieu and Richard Gasquet? It seems the average ESPN fan knows very little about tennis and could care about it even less.... Sad. Keep on plugging.

another interesting pattern that may work in Nalbandian's favor: Should he reach the final against Nadal he would much likely beaten the top three players in a row again: Federer in the QF's, Djokovic in the SF's and Nadal in the final...

I really hope this is not the case though and Federer goes on to proove everyone (including me I have to admit) wrong by storming to the title in a "I am showing you I am the best there is" kind of way. Too much to ask? Maybe but it is far from impossible.

i didn't see that don, but i'll look, thanks.

i really like murray's backhand return, but he chips his forehand return a lot, and he has trouble creating on low, short balls to that side, which lopez exploited with some success. interesting that murray's running forehand is amazing; i think he'd rather hit that way than get set up for it.

he's definitely great fodder for armchair tennis psychologists/journalists.

I'm the same way on my forehand...I'm in no way saying I play on the level of Murray, puhleeze. But I am much more likely to hit an amazing crosscourt dipping passing shot on the run than I am to put away a midcourt ball with my forehand. It's ridiculously frustrating.

lol, steve,

>this is the first time i have ever picked federer to lose before a semi. which may be good from him—the first and only time i picked nadal to lose before a semi was indian wells in 2007.

i hope you don't mind, that i was glad you didn't pick a roger/rafa final, because those haven't been coming true lately!

it's funny that even though Djokovic posseses that killer forehand and can close out matches like nobody's business -- a quality i normally adore in a player -- i for some reason prefer to watch Murray play, even if he's going to falter serving out at 5-2. I can't quite put a finger on what i find more enjoyable about his game. may have to something to do with his drop shots that feel like they shouldn't work as well as they do? i'd watch Federer/Murray anytime over Federer/Djokovic.

Steve,

As one who employs the chip forehand return often, I can't say I dislike it in Murray, although I do agree he uses it too often. It's a great way to catch the ball on the rise as you are moving foreward (something I often explain to my students is a hard thing to do with the open-stance topspin forehand drive), so if he were looking to sneak in behind his return, the chip forehand could be quite effective. But as with my own, it must become more of a slice drive than a chip in order to elicit an error or a weak reply that can be volleyed away.

As for those goons who visit ESPN.com and know little or nothing abolut tennis... one of them actually presumed that you had never hit a tennis ball in your life. I wanted to rebut that, but figured it would fall on deaf (and dumb) ears, so I held my tongue.

By the way, knowing that you like a good squash game, particularly in the winter months, have you ever read Ian McEwan's 2005 novel, "Saturday"? It's terrific, and in it there is a 10- to 15-page monologue by the British neurosurgeon protagonist about his squash game with his American-born, young anaesthesiologist firend. It's great stuff, particularly fro the psychological angle -- the way we almost always are our own worst enemies when confronting our weaknesses in competition. It's the old saw heard by every teaching pro on the lesson court: I know what the trouble is, I just can't stop doing it!


Hey Steve,

I was leaving for work as Djoko approached the net for the coin toss. Which absolutely sucked. All I know is that he had to save 7 of 8 break points. Still, if he looked determined, good things are in store for him. Last year he looked impatient, cranky, and I wasn't surprised to see him go out against Ferrer.

Can't disagree with your predictions, although I'll echo the chorus about how Always Fat Dave craps the bed when anyone picks him to do anything. If Djoko makes the semis, it'll be great. If he makes the final, fantastic. If he makes the final and takes a set off Nadal, I'll be elated. The next scenario is way too unrealistic to even type it.

If Murray wants to become a top 5 player, he has to work on his serve. A LOT. His first serve is okay when he gets it in (and we all know his problems with that last part). Too flat for my taste. His second serve is below average. Top 100 at best. You're only as good as your second serve, someone said.

Lack of good serves plus lack of dependable way of ending points results in a perennial top 15 career. Which is nice, were he not British.

Watch out for 2 players as well:

Mario Ancic - This guy could seriously take the action to Nadal. His size gives him the opportunity to create great power with his huge serve and flat-deep ground strokes. Also, he plays the net as well as anyone...


Baby Federer- If Gasquet happens to find good rythm and form and meets either Djkovic or Murray in the QF's anything, and I mean anything because he is as likely to pound Nadal on clay as he is to loose to Potito Starace on grass (no offense to Starace) can happen... This guy heats up and makes Federer up his eyebrows in amazement. As if he was throwing him a challenge to try to match his incredible shot making...

If anything, the 2008 tennis season should have taught us that all of our predictions can come up snake eyes at any time. Federer has spoiled us for the last 4 years because when at his extraordinary best, he made just about every tournament predictable - which saved most of us prognosticator's from having that much egg on our faces. With his season sputtering at present, Nadal under heavy pressure to defend, and Djokovic combining huge triumphs with pathetic losses from one tournament to the next, we have an unpredictability on the men's tour we haven't had in a long time. So I interpret Steve's prediction of Federer not reaching the Semis as underscoring this growing unpredictability. Take Federer out of the mix and it's open season the rest of the way.

For the record, two former Tennis Names also made predictions on the mens' side. Brad Gilbert says on his blog the he thinks Rafa's title run will come up short in Monte Carlo; and Martina Navratilova predicted, before the first clay court event was played, the Djokovic will win the French Open. Now THAT'S a bold prediction this far out.

Steve: you'd originally picked Murray to win Wimbledon earlier this year. Given what you've written here, I'm wondering if you still feel like he can pull it off?

Nick,

Do you have the link to Gilbert's blog? Please paste it so I can take a look at it. Thanks.
----------------------------------------

Juan Jose,

The one who said "you are as good as your second serve" was Billie-Jean King I think.

----------------------------------------

Steve,

I also have interest in seeing your answer to Nick's question. Do you think Federer will win a slam this year at all?


Swiss Maestro: Wasn't it Sampras?


Also, for all you Federer fans, since I've been tough on the guy recently, you should check this thing out:

http://www.fuebuena.com.ar/wp-content/uploads//2008/04/abierto-de-estoril-con-fede.jpg

If Estoril can produce such cool posters, why can't everyone else follow suit?

Juan Jose,

I am not positive. But I think Billie-Jean King said that when she was asked about Sampras' serve or the topic was brought up by someone else. If you are positive though please let me know. Thanks!

Swiss:

www.bradgilberttennis.com

Martina Navratilova picking Djoko to win the French?...based on what really? Djoko has not played a single match on clay this season...Nadal is still the man to beat until proven otherwise..

If it was Billie Jean King who uttered those famous words ("You're only as good as your second serve."), she was a genius. Look no further than Pat Rafter and Stefan Edberg who, when combining a great second serve (often disguised as a first serve, I might add) with superb agility and a killer volley, translated their second serves to multiple Slams and Hall of Fame careers. There have been others, of course, but I can't think of one pro today who has been able to accomplish so much with a great kick "second" serve. I've always thought that Rddick could do it, if only he could hit a forehand volley with regularity.

Juan Jose,
In a way that poster of Roger is symbolic to me. Reason is that he is trying to get to the ultimate prize but the dirt keep coming around.

To me, the one player who has the best second serve in history is the same who has the best first serve in history: Pistol Pete. Why? Well.. he could hit 2nd serves like many other players would have wished to hit their first serve. Has there ever been anyone who could hit as many aces in 2nd serves as Sampras? Don't think so...

"Brad Gilbert says on his blog the he thinks Rafa's title run will come up short in Monte Carlo"

It appears to me that Gilbert has p** envy on Rafael Nadal.

Maybe if Gilbert had actually EVER been a contender on a slam....

(I know, the occasional UGLY win against McEnroe or Connors in a minor tourney...)

Jealousy has such an UGLY face!

Federer didn't look dominant in Estoril. Part of this, I think, was the windy conditions - Federer plays extremely conservatively when there's wind, and on clay it sets him up for long BL rallies where his very high racquet head speed often ends the point with an error rather than a winner. We'll see in the first couple of rounds if this was situational or where his game is.

I don't have any objection to Steve saying he won't reach the SF, although personally I'd give Federer about a 50% chance of getting there on current form.

As far as RG is concerned, we're a long way off. How will Nadal manage his energy and game through four tournaments in four weeks? There's a kind of clay court monster he's created - any defeat, and we're in "sky is falling" territory.

As for Murray, my own feeling is that he has the talent and fitness to join the big 3, but the weak link is his attitude. The occasional grown or yelp is one thing - the running self-loathing commentary entirely another. I was impressed when he beat Federer in Dubai that he didn't make a big deal of it, and talked about the calming effects of yoga. Then it was back to chuntering away at IW and Miami.

I think Murray has immense weapons in his ability to change pace, spin and angle, and his defense is superb. What I don't yet see is some kind of quiet self-confidence. The gestures aside, each of the big 3 seems to have gained this - the sense that at one set all, 4 all they'll win the match.

Andrew,

"the sense that at one set all, 4 all they'll win the match"

Nadal vs Davydenko in the SF's in Rome last year is the perfect example of that.

I'm not sure that Brad thinking Nadal might not win Monte Carlo has anything to do with, uh, jealousy. Could he just be...speculating? The audacity!

I am bit surprised by Martina's Novak pick, too. Novak has game to win all 4 slams in future. But as of now, Rafa/Roger/Kolya/Nalbo have better clay court credentials than Novak and unless he wins a clay court masters series I will not pick him to win RG this year.

But I do think that Rafa will have more losses on clay this year and more than Rafa's game, I blame the scheduling. Rafa went deep at IW/Miami. Then played in davis cup and has only 1 week rest before he is scheduled to play 4 big clay tourneys in row. I would rather see rafa loose early or skip some of these lead up events than showing up exhausted at RG/wimby.

1963USCtennis:

You should know that just before the French last year it was Brad Gilbert who said that Nadal was "on a roll" and would end 2007 at #1. He even went so far as to predict on ESPN's Wimbledon broadcast last year, before the first match was played, that Nadal would win it. Wanna guess how many people laughed him out of the ESPN studio that day? To say he has anything against Nadal is just plain untrue.

Gilbert did say in the latest edition of Tennis Magazine in his sidebar coloumn that he feels Djokovic has a chance to reach #1 before Nadal ever gets there (although he made this prediction in print BEFORE Djokovic lost so early in Miami - so it remains to be seen if he still feels that way). In the column he said something I thought was telling: Gilbert said, in his view, Nadal isn't moving as well or as fast as he was a couple of years ago.

I'm one of Rafa's big defenders on blog posts. He's a prime example of what sheer will can accomplish. His strokes & game are unique - a tennis purist will call them "ugly". He wasn't classically trained in a tennis academy like so many other players. He's self taught, self made and merits enormous respect for the courageous efforts he routinely puts forth. That said, his vulnerabilities are also clear. His chances at a hard court Major will not improve unless he changes his mind-set, which is an automated response to play defense. He does this all too often when he gets deep into hard court tournaments. More and more guys have taken advantage of his defense, figuring out they have the opportunity to take the offensive. This is why we see so many of his hard court beat down scores: the more he gets defensive, the more the better guys just take him to the woodshed. If Nadal can manage to mentally remind himself to use more attack than defense, we all know he's got what it takes to succeed anywhere. Against anyone.


I'd just like to caution everyone here against assuming Rafa will win everything on clay. I know I feel like he's got an excellent chance, but tennis is known for it's unpredictability. We're spoiled by the results of the past 2-3 years, but 2008 has been the year of upsets so far.

Nick, well said. I also read Gilbert's piece in the most recent issue of TENNIS Magazine, and couldn't realy find fault with it. Of course, with the European clay court season looming as he wrote it, Gilbert's prediction may have seemed premature. But he didn't say Djokovic would ascend to the #1 spot this year, or even this spring. He merely, as you pointed out, said that he thought he'd get there before Nadal. I've personally felt that way since last year's French, when Djokovic had made his second of four straight semifinal appearances in the Slams. I actually thought Djokovic might surpass Nadal and assume the #2 spot sometime just after this year;s Australian Open. Of course, his early loss in Miami pretty much nixed that. And I'm a huge Rafa fan, too. I just love the guts and heart, the fight and will, the athleticism and muscularity he brings to the game. He makes you earn every point at least three times.

Sher, you are spot on. Predictions are just that, and it isdoubtful that anyone on this blog is clairvoyant.

juan jose - great poster! that's one of the best sporting posters i have ever seen in my life.

i don't know if i'm ready to write off roger before the semis. in esotril his matches were either three sets (with one or two being close) or a cake walk (two set easy-peasy). it was a shame that davy had to retire in the second set as it undermines the win, but i'm not so sure that would have been a 3 setter.

sure the field in monte carlo is better but i see a new and improved roger laying i down this clay season....call me crazy...

The picture...that's the court? It's beautiful.

going for Nadal:

*No one has ever wanted to win every point as much.
*Mindsed. He is as mentally tough as it gets I don't think there has ever been anyone as good as Nadal at ignoring bad momentum. *Het gets beaten but never chokes a match away.
*Self-energizing capacity. (which I find shocking at times). I keep on re-calling what he did in Rome last year because until then I never saw anything like that.

going against Nadal:

*Injuries. They take a toll for all the stress he puts on his body (specially his knees).
*The fact that he rarely wins without putting in a ton of work.
*His relatively week serve. Being naturally right handed makes his serve motion not as natural. If he was a natural lefty he would win many more free points from his serve.

Nick:

"You should know that just before the French last year it was Brad Gilbert who said that Nadal was "on a roll" and would end 2007 at #1. He even went so far as to predict on ESPN's Wimbledon broadcast last year, before the first match was played, that Nadal would win it. Wanna guess how many people laughed him out of the ESPN studio that day? To say he has anything against Nadal is just plain untrue. "

I never said he had "something against Nadal". I did not know what he had said last year before RG.

However the "Ralph" Nadal and his latest claims that RN is "slower" and Djoko reaching #1 before RN are in my opinion just attempts to stir the pot.

If RN was on such a roll last year when he cleaned the clay courts and then came oh so close at Wimby... then this year he should be on an even greater roll. Consider that this has been the best start of a season for what is already a HOF career.
So RN has gotten better, not worse. But Nole is going to get to #1 sooner? Ok, whatever; but I doubt it. Point wise Nole is quite far away right now from RN. Nole 4725 RN 5455 RF 6425

As to "his chances at a HC major will not improve"...

Are you seriously discounting a player who has this year the 2nd best record on hard courts?

If that is the criteria, then I guess Andy Roddick has NO CHANCE at the US Open.

Maybe we should send Rafael a note to not even enter the draw at Flushing Meadows.

Let me put it this way. If James Blake were having the season that RN is having, by the time the USO came around we would NEVER hear the end of it in the news as to how much a contender he would be...

RN is a contender in every major no matter what Gilber says or doesn't say.

gilbert likes nadal; bg's only fault with predictions is that he tends to blow with the wind and take it to extremes on both sides. remember "federer will win 20 slams"? then he had nadal taking over no. 1; now he's got him down the drain. but predictions are purely for fun and to give people something to talk about. if someone is even halfway serious about being right, they won't give in to bias—in fact, i think it makes people go against their own favorite players so they don't jinx them.

i don't know who will beat federer; i just don't see him making the semis. that's always a problem with picking him to lose—you need to say that a certain person will beat him, but i have no idea. i do think he is vulnerable in general. we'll see what happens against ramirez-hidalgo, who will be a good test of his consistency.

juan jose: djokovic wasn't too testy in an early game where he hit four bad errors. but he wasn't at his best until the end.

don: the chip return can be tough and is great in dubs, but if i was lopez, i would have served to murray's forehand side virtually every time. his backhand return is just better.

have read 'saturday' and i always think about his lines about how, when you lose, you feel like you're losing in a way that only you could lose, and how your mind begins to exaggerate all of your personal faults, and you end up a mental wreck with about half the self-esteem you had at the start of the match. very true in squash and tennis


just to throw in a thought - it has been common speculation back to last year that if Rafa has tendonitis in his knees, it is reasonable to think that the medical condition might affect his recovery time. With plenty of rest Rafa can come out and produce the old level of effort but in a long tourney, with little rest between matches, it might be harder to recover between matches. It seemed a problem later in the second half of last year. Even Toni came out with thoughts in that direction that were denied.

I think all some are saying is that they have observed the wear and tear and recovery time have appeared to slow Rafa down after tough matches. If that is true, it could be a less predictable clay season. Two years ago one never heard Rafa complain about the intense clay season. He said that for some reason and I think that reason is Rafa knows how difficult it is to achieve his past total dominance. In this he and Fed have something else in common this season.

With Rafa's game, of course, he is always contender, but it is also fair to speculate about the physical element that may come into play this year.

TT, the last two years Rafa has complained about the compressed clay schedule -- I believe this year is the first year he did so in English, but it's not a new complaint from either him or his uncle.

On the number one ranking, both JJ and I believe that Djokovic will attain it before Rafa does. However, both of us also believe that Rafa's best chance to be number one is NEXT year. Reason being -- we don't see a total domination by anyone on hard like Fed has done for the past four years or so. If Rafa can maintain his steady and consistently good results off clay, and boost his clay court points by playing the South American swing, then I don't think it's a stretch at all to say that Rafa will be number one at some point. I don't particularly like his chances this year, but then again, the year is quite young and who knows how it will play out.

steve: one example of a biased commentator is Greg Rusedski, who earlier this year stated that Murray was the defacto number three in the world, behind Federer and Nadal.

Ugh, I want Federer to recover his full form soon and make things really interesting.

Steve,

That's exacly the point in McEwan's "Saturday" that I was referring to. I thought of you when I read it, and wondered if it was as true in squash as it is in tennis. No doubt anbout it, we all know our own tendencies, especially our faults, better than anyone on the court. And we always know when we're going to blow that particular shot or kiss away the momentum we've just worked so hard to gain. We're in our own unique hell in those moments, and there seems to be no way out. I can attest to the fact that there is a way out, but only through sheer force of will, because self-belief is not something that suddenly can be injected like insulin.

I, too, like the chip in doubles, but find more and more that at the 5.0 level and above I'd better swing away or a good volleyer will poach on all but my very best chips. The chip lob over the netman right off the serve, especially secon serves, is another favorite tactic of mine. It helps keep him honest and, when executed well, almost always earns a point.

Steve,

One question: ow much do you think a common lingering weakness from a bout with mononucleosis will affect Federer during this European clay court season?

Is he such a phenomenal athlete and in such superb condition that he will not be feeling any residual effects?

i don't know how exactly federer is feeling. i think he'll be ok physically; he hasn't missed any scheduled events so far, right? or maybe one? he needs to focus on consistency and get the unshakeable confidence back that he has had—which of course cannot just be willed into existence. playing estoril was a good move i think.

one thing that's easier in squash is that it's much harder to hit the ball out. that takes some nerves out of play i find. but when you lose, you feel like just as big a loser.

nadal no. 1 next year, then djokovic? interesting, amylu

Nice article steve. As a Murray fan I, along with many of his supporters on www.murraysworld.com, have become increasingly frustrated with him of late. However, he had a good win today. Remarkably, for a top 20 player this was only his 4th ever win on clay at senior level. That is mainly because he was injured last year, from this period of the season right up to the US open. And I believe he was injured the year before during the same spell. That means, given he grew up training on clay in Barcelona, that he should amass ranking points if he plays well during this spell.

I don't want to speak too soon - he'll probably lose tomorrow, but he does have the next two masters events as well as this one to gain points , not mentioning the French open and Wimbledon. If he can stay focused he could fly up the rankings. Although, I kind of hope he doesn't because the hype/pressure at Wimbledon would be tremendous Hiring Corretja was a smart move for this period of the season.

I noticed that Jamie Murray reached the doubles final in Spain last week.

Was that Marat Safin pounding Xavier Malisse??????? wow...

hi steve nice review...
interresting about murray... he seems to be one of the few to use the drop shot as a way to win rather than setting up conditions to hit a passing or lob... many guys commenting use to say that you hit a drop shot when you ran out of solutions to end the rally, i don't know if this applies to murray yet. but i've seen him use the drop shot in very smart ways.

about gilbert predictions, any time he picks someone to win he jinx him/her, so picking up nadal to lose in MC is making me giggle... this might be the way to make rafa the winner on sunday !

No, Steve, I actually think Djokovic could attain it this year.

I do believe Nadal's best chance is next year, and it wouldn't surprise me if the number one ranking passed hands multiple times between Fed, Rafa, and Djokovic in 2009. Personally I don't care if Rafa's only number one for a week, just long as he gets there. (Well that and I love if he got there before Djokovic because otherwise I'll never hear the end of it from a certain someone).

I do think Djokovic has a much better chance than Rafa to be a long-standing number one in the future, much as it pains me to write it.

Sorry for all the typos in my previous post -- that's what happens when you're running late and trying to post before you leave. And, JJ is actually the one who convinced me that Rafa has a great shot to be number one next year. I was becoming resigned to the thought he'd never get there.

Steve, you hit the nail on the head...Fed is lacking unshakeable confidence in his game at the moment and it's showing, his BP conversion rate has been atrocious of late...let's not forget dude was a mental midget prior to TMF...I'm hoping he gets that unshakeable belief back ASAP...

As sam says lack of fitness + lack of match play = lack of confidence....now fitness + match play + coach = confidence, no???
He did say he wanted to play himself into fitness...and I think he has enough matches under his belt now, he just needs to get that quarter step back and TMF should be back, no???

An interesting consequence of hitting the chipped return, or sliced approach or stroke, is that they make the dropshot and underspin lob return (in dubs) effective, since their mechanical production is not a give away of your intentions.

If you swing away at every return in doubles, or at every mid-court ball in singles, the nano second you set up for a slice your intentions are obvious.

You are only as good as your second serve was Laver by the way. I think Novak will get beaten by Murray, and I will be So Happy for SOOOO Many days...Federer will easily beat Nalbandian and be "honored" to put Murray away ...Just wait and see.....

Steve, great read. Sorry I missed it earlier.

I'm a Federer doter, but apart from his absence in your picks in that you have Djokovic taking down Nalbandian. I think if David makes it to the SF he is going to be very, very, tough, and maybe even brilliant, a la last year. He's a two-time RG semifinalist.

In which case we could see a Rafa/David Final which would be terrific.

I still love my guy Fed, and hope he makes it to the Final, but I'm pegging Rafa for a four-peat.

ah, djokovic no. 1 this year. i guess he'll have to do well this week to begin that climb. he doesn't have many bad results to work with until cincy. lotta of day-to-day pressure on all three of these guys. i wonder who will be affected the most.

i do think federer will win a slam this year

"Personally I don't care if Rafa's only number one for a week, just long as he gets there. (Well that and I love if he got there before Djokovic because otherwise I'll never hear the end of it from a certain someone).

I do think Djokovic has a much better chance than Rafa to be a long-standing number one in the future, much as it pains me to write it. "

Amylu, I am sooooo with you, much as a big rafa fan as I am, and as painful as you are to write that, I have to agree. Djoko is more all around and even "hungrier" than Rafa.

I think Rafa can win all GS, bcos he has the raw talent and the steel mentality, and heaven forbid, the guy is only 21, TMF was nowhere like Rafa when he was 21. Rafa has the capacity to improve, despite his nagging injuries, and has the potential to dominate in all courts. THE BIGGEST PROBLEM is his refusal to go beyond his intimate little circle and get a different prespective or means to train/upgrade his game. While Toni did a phenomenal job, Rafa needs more and different coaching to fully realize his potential. Rafa is not done with polishing and fine tuning, but if he refuses to leave "the village", we are doomed never to see his complete brillance.

Great points, skip1515.

Which is why as a general rule I play with the continental grip and use lot of slices and chips, only occasionally switching to an eastern or sem-wetsern forehand grip to rip a sitter or swing away at a mid-court floater. I find the versatlity of the slice backhand excellent for creating the disguise you allude to.

I think Djokovic is lucky because of the timing of his success, but that would never lead me to conclude that he is 'hungrier' than the guys who've been at the top for years. We shall see.

>Rafa has complained about the compressed clay schedule

yeah, and it's true that clay season is compressed into two months compared to hard court season so he cannot possibly be ill during those months if he wants to remain at the top, whereas a Djokovic can take two months of from hard court and still maintain his ranking easily enough.

this year's complaint is different: the schedule is insane enough that it is almost impossible for one person to win the tournaments that they are required to participate in.

Rafa has won in the past with a similar schedule, the schedule last year was just a little better. For Rafa since 2005 it has been playing every week from Montecarlo onwards with the exception of the week before Roland Garros, and the week when Hamburg is played that he had to skip both in 05 and 06 due to the intense 5 set finals that he had played first vs. Coria (05) and afterwards vs. Roger (06). Last year for the first time he showed up in Hamburg after playing the week before in Rome, and his run lasted until the finals ...

i guess that he is ready for this again, and unless he gets injured he will achieve pretty much the same results. It would be fair to include another clay AMS outside this time of the year but well things are like this ...

Linex; I think you're absolutely right. I wouldn't be surprised if he skipped Hamburg this year, understandably.

About Martina picking Novak to win RG. Possible. Maybe even probable. He's got the game and belief.
just one little thing...Novak is yet to take one set off Rafa on clay.
we'll see.

AmyLu, i agree with you in thinking Rafa has a chance for #1 next year. Djokovic will be fully established and have no "holes" in the year where there is oppurtunity to pick up loads of points. miami maybe. but the clay season is completely open for him this year.
audrey, definitely agree with Rafa refusing to leave the "village".

on that note,
Steve- what do you think? Should the next step for Rafa be to bring new ppl into his circle? Is that the answer to some hard court woes? Djokovic has been so open about bringing Mark Woodforde, even JMac, and whoever and whatever else he needs.


serena, the true world number one!

tsongo: got a nasty feeling you're having difficulties with the ol' Turing test, there...

For my money Pete Sampras was way hot. But then maybe the Lord tooketh away an interesting personality.

I always fear for Federer whenever Nalbandian is in his part of the draw. The guy just knows how to beat Federer in exactly the way that all the other players wished they did. Federer knows this, and he knows he has to bring his A++ game, and sometimes that's a little much even for him. Nalbandian's last two victories over Roger seemed scripted, as if Federer realized he were going to lose right in the middle of the first point. Not to mention I thought for sure the Estoril final was headed to a third once Davydenko had reminded himself he didn't have to lose the match.

Nadal, though. If his season winds up similarly to Federer's so far, I think for sure Djokovic is a lock for the #1 rank this year. But I do find it hard to belittle Nadal's record so far, despite the lack of titles. I really don't see Nadal relinquishing much ground, if any, in the next few weeks.


Lopez's rec-style serve??? His smooth first delivery regularly hits 130 mph+ As for the rest of his game ...

According to this article, "John Newcombe once said you're only as good as your second serve."
http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9E0CE4DB1E31F934A25756C0A964958260&sec=&spon=&pagewanted=all

Djokovic is a great tennis player no doubt, but I do have doubts about his stamina after tournaments in which he goes deep or wins. Is it coincidence that he lost in the first round of Cinci after winning Montreal and did the same thing in Miami after winning Indian Wells? He had mediocre results after the AO until Indian Wells.
Some people talk as if they expect him to become #1 and win everything in sight a la Federer. Some even talk of Nole winning a calendar year slam! Which even Roger couldn't do and neither will anyone else, as long as a certain Spaniard is around ; )
I think some people are getting just a little ahead of the game. LOL


Once on top, there is no other way but down.

This applies to Federer on grass, Nadal on clay.

Bell's curve in statistics: inevitable, inescapable fact of life.

Roland Garros is for Djokovic, Tsonga, Murray and Roddick

Tosin wrote:

"The picture...that's the court? It's beautiful."

I agree : )
That has to be one of the most scenic locations of a tennis tournament in the world! It's great on TV when they pan into the court from above and you can see the sea just like the fantastic view.

JJ: I am awed by the picture.

Uh, Roddick?

Djok's recent success on hard courts, doesn't guarantee he'll continue on clay. I still think he has significant endurance challenges that become more important on clay. Ahead two sets to love, Djok nearly faded in the heat against David Ferrer in Australia (was it exercise-induced asthma? Djok seemed to have breathing problems.) And hasn't Djok "retired" three times in matches, twice with foot blisters and once with back problems? I still think Djok will have a hard time in the Paris heat, grinding out long, baseline rallies at the French. Also, his perhaps unique ability to stay right on top of the baseline and change directions is likely to be much less effective with heavier top spin on clay.

Excellent. I look forward to another glorious Federer-free final. Tennis has never been better this year.

You might want to add an update to this article. Almagro has been taken out by Andreev. So much for expert prediction.

Steve,

You're good with writing and I enjoy your posts much better than Bodo's but your predicting sucks mate..

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