It’s official: The clay season is now the high point of the tennis year. Try as we might in the U.S, it’s the spring European circuit that has provided the most drama, the most tension, and the highest level of play for four years running. It shouldn’t be that surprising, even for the hardest core hard-court devotee: There’s a deep history to the events in Monte Carlo, Rome, Hamburg, and Paris, and the surface arguably produces the most entertaining tennis of all when there are shotmakers sliding around on it—compare the semifinal between Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic in Indian Wells in March and the one they just played in Hamburg.
But that doesn’t explain the tension—the terrible significance—which is something new for clay. It's the result, of course, of two interrelated and opposing questions: (1) Can Roger Federer win the French Open?; (2) How long can Nadal continue his historic domination of clay? These two questions set the tennis year on its head for a few months. Suddenly the best player must live with being second-best, and has to figure out a way back to the top, while the second-best becomes very nearly unbeatable.
It’s a great time to be a tennis fan, but it can be hard on a tennis writer. How many different ways can you analyze a Federer loss to Nadal? So it was nice to wake up today and know that the big show, the one we’ll remember, the one played on the most historic clay courts of all, is finally upon us. Yes, the draws are out for the French Open. We’ll break them down—Cliff Note for slackers: Djokovic is on Nadal’s side—and even talk about the women. While they have hardly been keeping up their end of the tension bargain this spring, we do know there will be a new champion in Paris on June 5.
The Men
First Quarter
This is what it’s like to be an American on clay these days. You work hard to learn the ways of dirt in places like Estoril and Monte Carlo, and what’s your reward? Sam Querrey now knows: Federer in the first round in Paris. Federer has, for the first time, shown his best tennis during the clay season this year. But there are a few potential under the radar challenges in his quarter. He could get Spanish dirtballer Alberto Montanes in the second round, and Argentine dirtballer Juan Monaco in the fourth. Federer is slotted to play Richard Gasquet in the quarters, but it seems much more likely that he’ll see Andreev, Wawrinka, or Fernando Gonzalez (now seeded all the way down at No. 24) there.
First-round matches to watch: Andreev vs. Starace (lots and lots of shots); Kohlschreiber vs. Wawrinka (nice backhands); Young vs. Ginepri (for American eyes only)
Semifinalist: Roger Federer
Second Quarter
Will Nikolay Davydenko’s time ever come? After his win in Key Biscayne in April, you might have thought so; the guy has the game to beat anyone, if he could just convince himself of that fact. But he remains a mystery, retiring against Federer in the Estoril final (before playing again two days later), losing to Robredo in Rome and Kiefer in Hamburg, and continuing to focus more on quantity than quality—he’s at it again this weekend in Austria, where he’ll play just hours before heading for Paris. His quarter features a motley bunch of unpredictable oddballs and one-of-a-kinders like Stepanek, Santoro, Tsonga, Monfils, and Mahut (yes, I’m talking mostly about Frenchman) alongside former champs on the long career downslope like Ferrero, Safin, Hewitt, and, believe it or not, Guillermo Coria. Oh, there’s David Ferrer, too, how could I forget him? He seemed burned out a little in Rome and Hamburg, but he has to be the favorite in his section to make the quarters and face Davydenko. The Russian’s trickiest opponent may be another Russian, Marat Safin, who he could get in the second round, and who has been inching back into some semblance of form over the last month.
First-round matches to watch: Stepanek vs. Simon; Hewitt vs. Mahut (who says there aren’t still contrasts in style in the men’s game?)
Semifinalist: Nikolay Davydenko
Third Quarter
The question on everyone’s mind since the Australian Open has been answered: Novak Djokovic is on Nadal’s, rather than Federer’s, side of the draw in Paris. His road to a repeat semifinal with the defending champion is not the rockiest. The next highest seeds here are James Blake and Tomas Berdych, neither of whom can be expected to beat Djokovic. The Serb is comfortable on clay, though his game is a slightly better fit for hard courts, where his down-the-line backhand doesn’t come back the way it did against Nadal in Hamburg. That match showed just how difficult—maybe impossible—it will be for him to beat Nadal on dirt over three-out-of-five sets, even when he's playing his best. But part of me also can see Djokovic, always a model student of his opponents, gaining confidence from his strong play in Hamburg and getting over the hump in Paris. I can only say for sure that if he and Nadal reach the semis, it will be a war—an intriguing war, if there is such a thing. The difference will likely be made by Djokovic's backhand—can he keep hurting Nadal with it as the games and sets go by?—and Nadal's forehand—how many inside-out balls will he get a crack at? Djokovic's toughest test on the way there may be Guillermo Cañas, an all-time scrapper who the Serb could see in the third round, and who will also send that down-the-line backhand floating, maddeningly, back to him.
First-round match to watch: Djokovic vs. Gremelmayer (the German nearly beat Federer in Estoril)
Semifinalist: Novak Djokovic
Fourth Quarter
Nadal should come into the French feeling good. He has had his physical travails, but he was tired at this point last year as well. He’s also just fought off a challenge for his No. 2 ranking from Djokovic and won a deciding set from Federer in Hamburg. Nadal’s fourth title defense will begin against a nondescript group—Lopez, Guccione, Kiefer—but could wind toward a very testy quarterfinal against David Nalbandian. The Argentine is 2-0 against Nadal, surrendering just seven games in two matches at the indoor Masters events in Madrid and Paris last year. Of course, this is a bigger stage, one that Nalbandian regularly fails on, and the thought of potentially facing Nadal may weigh on him through the early rounds. Also present, it should be noted, is Mikhail Youzhny, who has beaten Nadal in the past. But as with Nalbandian, this only gives Rafa a chance to exact some revenge on his turf.
First-round match to watch: Murray vs. Federer's sometime practice partner, Jonathan Essyric
First-round match not to watch: Isner vs. Chela
Semifinalist: Rafael Nadal
Semifinals: Davydenko d. Federer; Nadal d. Djokovic
Final: Nadal d. Davydenko
The Women
First Quarter
Justine Henin’s retirement has promoted Maria Sharapova to the No. 1 ranking and the top of the draw at Roland Garros. She’s been injured (of course), and by her own admission she’s no clay-courter. She also may have to face Dinara Safina, who beat her here a couple years ago and just won a Tier I event in Berlin. Still, I think a rested Sharapova, who, like most of the top women, must be thinking that this is a golden Slam opportunity, will be ready for that challenge, and for a possible follow-up from Elena Dementieva in the quarters.
Semifinalist: Maria Sharapova
Second Quarter
Svetlana Kuznetsova, who lost the 2006 final to Henin in Paris, should also be savoring the moment. We all know she has the game to win majors, but that she has typecast herself as a perennial runner-up. Kuzzie has a pretty clear path to the quarters—the highest seed in her section is No. 16 Azarenka, a nice young player who probably isn’t ready to take out the Russian. The other half could end in a fourth-rounder between twin blond double-fisted youngsters, Szavay and Chakvetadze. I’d like to see that match, but I don’t think the winner will beat Kuznetsova.
Semifinalist: Svetlana Kuznetsova
Third Quarter
It gets a little more interesting here. Venus Williams and Jelena Jankovic are at either end of the section, while Mauresmo, Bartoli, Radwanska, and new local heroine Alize Cornet are scattered through the middle. Venus has seemed distracted of late, but I don’t see anyone to choose over her on her road to the quarters—Bartoli is the next highest seed in her half. The same goes for Jankovic on the other side. Is this JJ’s time? She’s probably not going to have a better chance at winning a Slam. Her counterpunching style is made for clay, which also helps hide her weak serve a bit, and she just got the taste of a title in Rome, which may make her more ambitious than usual in Paris. I can already see the Williams-Jankovic quarterfinal craziness in my head, can’t you?
Semifinalist: Jelena Jankovic
Fourth Quarter
This section contains the best two stories in the women's draw. (1) Is Ana ready?; (2) How will Serena react to Justine’s absence? There are a few semi-dangerous women for these two to get through—Vaidisova, Bondarenko, Schnyder, Safarova, maybe Wozniacki. And Ivanovic has spun out since her win in Indian Wells in March (she lost to Pironkova in the second round in Rome last week). But I still expect those two main storylines to collide in the quarters. Williams and Ivanovic have only played once, on hard courts in 2006, with Williams winning 2 and 4. And when it comes to collisions, you have to like Serena, no matter what the surface is.
Semifinalist: Serena Williams
Semifinals: Kuznetsova d. Sharapova; S. Williams d. Jankovic
Final: S. Williams d. Kuznetsova
Remember the matches start Sunday, on ESPN2 and the Tennis Channel in the States. Until then, look for a couple Sartorially Resplendent posts from Paris in this space. I should be back on Monday.
