FIRST!!!

VAMOS RAFA, CMON MOMMA SERENA!!!!!!!!!

Thanks for this Steve. This is what I most looked forward to during the slams!! I appreciate your work so much!! How long will you be staying in Flushing Meadows?

"But I think Safina's form has been too good for her not to extend it to her first Slam semi."

What are you talking about there? She made the finals of Roland Garros.

first?

meh

yeah.. ivanovic beat safina at the french final..
and she will beat her again at the open.

BTW Steve,

Is there any way you could post some score predictions for at least the finals?

AND! I just have to say that you look so much like Darren Cahill!!

***"But I think Safina's form has been too good for her not to extend it to her first Slam semi."
What are you talking about there? She made the finals of Roland Garros.***

I'm guessing Steve meant first USO semi, although Dinara did reach the quarters a couple years back (falling to then-No 1 Mauresmo).

Steve - intersting picks. I would love for all your semi-finalist to come true but then again, all GSs this year have shown some surprises. Let's see how it all goes. Meanwhile , what about Nalby?

afwu - Have you visited Serena's website recently? she's got some great pics on there! Go momma Serena ;-)

Steve as much as I like Ivanovic to reach the Quarters I dont think she would as she has the toughest quarter amongst ( Petrova , Mauresmo ) all the top women plus the lack of matches since Roland Garros would defintely play its part .

If Nadal and Nalbandian meet that'd be in the quarters, if David makes it that far it means that he's playing good tennis and if he's playing good tennis I think that he could easily beat Nadal (not the same as: beat Nadal with ease) and I don't get the whole "5 set match" thing, Nalbandian has one of the best records in matches decided in 5 sets. The thing is: I don't think Gervasio will get that far :(

"Nice backhands" LOL

Talk about UNDERSTATEMENT!

i have to disagree with the men's final. i believe djokovic will win. my wildcard is federer to win. wow i just picked him as a wildcard. he needs to win at least one slam this year right? totally agree with the women 100%.

Let's go Roddick,,, You are the man. Win it Roddick.

Hey Steve

I'm on vacations and came here to take a look at the draw.

And this is unheard of: for the third Grand Slam in a row, Portugal's Frederico Gil meets former Wimbledon junior champ Jeremy Chardy of France in the first round. After Roland Garros and Wimbledon (and in both those Slam Frederico came out of the qualifying), our portuguese number one is meeting Chardy.

What are the odds on that? Any mathematicians out there?

I can't believe I'm saying this, I'm sorry all Rafa fans...

I want Roger to take the title. Rafa can have it next year, right now we need Roger to win something meaningful on his own.

Need to keep the rivalry alive and interesting!

I actually think Venus over Serena!!

roger is the best, cghuck out the rest

Ubha has the same men's semifinal picks at ESPN.

It's hard to disagree.

Ah the predictions again!
Time and again they go awfully wrong.

My money on Gulbis. Cheap OTM option, good bargain given the odds!

Oh! Steve!...you put it in writing...I have to go do the anti jinxing dance I perfected for Wimbledon.

Vamos Rafa!

Miguel:
I believe the probability of Gil meeting Chardy meeting three times in a row at a Slam in the first round is around 0.00000049% (1/127 x 1/127 x 1/127). This is the probability assuming that they are both in the draw in the first place.

That equals 1/2,048,383, or approx. one in two million.

My picks for the guys:

- Nadal over Murray.
- Federer over Djokovic.

- Federer over Nadal. I'm a Rafa fan but right now tennis needs Roger to send some sort of statement. Him winning the US Open would be good for the sport.

The girls:

- Serena over Safina.
- Chakvetadze over jankovic.

- Serena over Chakvetadze. I wanted to pick Safina over Serena in the semis but that'll probably be a night match at Arthur Ashe, gotta go with Serena.

I agree with everything except Djokovic.....I think that if Roddick can make it that far the home crowd will boost him over Djokovic....it's surviving the first few rounds that will be important.

Roseangel....its not that simple because of the seeds. The formula becomes much more complicated because certain people are not drawn randomly. And then the fact one variable depends on another. But without explaining all of the math it is about a .0000567777 (the sevens keep repeatings).

I can't argue with much of your picks, Steve. Except I'm going for Gulbis over Roddick in the second round. I'd be willing to bet on it.

Steve I agree with you almost all the way other than final. I think that if Roger gets through the early round he will in the final. I have a feeling Djoko may lose early. In any case like you I see Nadal and Serena winning it!

Missed out some words on my post.. typing too fast I guess. I meant to see I see Fed reaching final if he makes it through early rounds.

A similar thing happend to me; I read Rafeal Nadal and said to mysely Roger Federer is'nt the number one seed.

New Flash, new flash, Daren Cahill has just reported on ESPN that Justine has been in training 2-3 days a week. A comeback is in the making. Go Justine, soon to be world's #1 again.

fed over rafa? oh c'mon, this is rafa's long overdue reign. rog's going down inevitably.after all, he had stayed the longest at the top.there are other young guns who can compete thrillingly with rafa.But RAFA WILL PREVAIL.

Predictions: Murray over Nadal, Djokovic over...wait for it...Tursunov. Nole over Andy (who needs a nickname).

DHAMM411: If you can do that kind of math, you should be smart enough to know that Roddick's done. He will not make the round of 16. James Blake is the de facto American number 1.

Though I did just pick Tursunov to make a Grand Slam semi, so what do I know?

LOL, steve, I had exactly the same experience with the draw.

I actually read rafa's name, registered it and then proceeded to interpret the draw as though that was Federer's name!

I am getting this funny feeling about Murray in this tournament.

Gulbis could be the favorite in the theoretical second-rounder with Roddick; no one trusts Andy to win even in the early rounds anymore.
Also, gotta admit I love Stan Wawrinka's draw. The Murray match should be the only thing standing between him and the semis (though Nadal would tear him apart once he got there).

DHAMM411: yes, I considered the seeds. But in reality either Gil of Chardy (as non-seeds) could basically have been drawn against anyone else in the draw in the first round, so each of them has 127 possible first-round opponents, regardless of where those oppoinents fall in the draw. It would be more complicated if either of them was a seed. As it is, either of them could play Nadal, one of a number of qualifiers, Luis Horna....or anyone else in the draw.

So, to convince me, you will need to explain how you think the non-random placement of certain other people in the draw affects the odds of Gil or Chardy playing any other person in the draw. Ultimately I don't think it does, given that their own placement is random.

Now, if you were arguing that either could only any one of the 32 seeds in the first round, that makes sense. But they could in theory play any one of the 32 seeds, or anyone else.

"If Nadal and Nalbandian meet that'd be in the quarters, if David makes it that far it means that he's playing good tennis and if he's playing good tennis I think that he could easily beat Nadal (not the same as: beat Nadal with ease) and I don't get the whole "5 set match" thing, Nalbandian has one of the best records in matches decided in 5 sets. The thing is: I don't think Gervasio will get that far :("

An interesting point. I think Safin is another player like this. If Safin is playing good tennis he could face Moya or Tsonga in the third round and given those two players seasons I'm not really sure how to call that one. If Safin builds on his 1st and 2nd round wins he'll beat either Tsonga or Moya. But then the joker.
He beat him at Wibledon in the second round but thats not Novak's best surface. Now Safin won the USO in 2000 and if he is playing his best tennis is very dangerous on hard courts. If (a big if) that is the case I think he can beat Novak in the fourth round.

So playing it safe in the top half of the third quarter the fourth round will either be Roddick vs Gonzales or Gulbis vs Gonzales though Gulbis vs Seppi in the third round could be tough and realize Gulbis is young. So going with my logic Safin would face either Roddick or Gonzales in the quarters. And I have to say beyond this my crystal ball is pretty murky. If Safin is playing his best tennis I give him QF match at least.

At any rate who knows...

Nice picks Steve, I enoyed reading them, thanks.
Firstly, can someone tell me: If Murray makes the SF, and neither Ferrer nor Davydenko get past QF, is he #4?
My take on all this:
In general, I suspect Nadal will win this tournament because he is on fire. The only players that I can see beating him are:

1. Djokovic: Not likely to reach final (lots of pressure), and even if he does its about 50/50.
2. Federer: Lets face it - his form is not great this year. I don't see it happening.
3. Ferrer: Hasn't looked to good recently, lots of points to defend like Djokovic, = pressure.
4. Blake: Over 5 sets, the careless errors will get to him.
5. Murray: his record vs. Nadal is 0 and 5 (or 6 I don't remember).
Nadal will likely reach the final and his record in finals is very good in general.
As for women, I think Serena is the best candidate. She'll probably win if she doesn't injure herself. (she lost to henin last year if I recall correctly).

Rosangel & Dhamm411:
Both probabilities you have calculated are conditional - conditional on the fact that they were in the draw.
Unconditional probability (which was what Miguel wanted) is too complex to figure out except that it is non-zero.

Samanatha Elin.... BEST... NEWS...EVER. Thx.

( does the phrase "you don't know what you got 'till it's gone" ring true now...)

I dont know man i think that federer has bit more condifidence coming into the open because he got that gold medal even though it was doubles. I am thinking he will beat djkovic in final if not win the open. i what was causing his slump was that he didn't have that fire and confidence in him beccause he didn't have anything to feed off of cause he kep losing. but now with the gold medal i think he has more confidence then he has after Wimbledon and hopefully do better. But anywat goof analysis.

srry i meant good analysis not goof sorry typo

Hey Steve, I'm getting pretty excited reading your breakdown about the two weeks to come...

Saw Cilic in New Haven and man, does that guy serve big. How do these super-skinny guys hit such heavy serves? Not just fast, but with so much kick...

Also, I saw Nadal practice today with Lopez and he was all smiles, hanging out and having fun, and hitting a new (to me) trick shot: hitting overheads with his back to the net. He could hit them hard. Kind of astounding.

Earlier, Roddick, who was practicing with Dancevic, was crushing his forehand. But when Nadal came on court later and started hitting HIS forehand, I thought, wow, that's a whole nutha level.

Basically it is a problem of slots being taken. Gil cannot be drawn into 32 of the 128 slots. Then Chardy cannot be drawn into 33 of the 128 slots. So then you have to randomize the 32 matchups not taking place with seeds, because they would have to be in those matchup for this to be true. Then you have to take this into account three times for each GS tourney. Its not just about simply going 1/127. Anyway by that (flawed) logic it should be 1/128. But this is a tennis not a mathematics sight, so there's really no reason to go through all of this. Basically the probability is statistically LOW!!!

My two predictions are that 1) [sadly] Roddick goes out early and 2) [more surprisingly] Djokovick goes out in the middle rounds.

And Short Vega.....you have to make the assumption that they are both in the draw.....so basically this problem would look something like....

Assuming that both Gil and Chardy are in the draw what is the prob.....

Come on Roger you can win this. Just do it.

I am a huge Serena Williams fan, and I think shes got the best chance, but she won't beat Venus is she isn't in better shape than the Olympics.

STILL CHEERING FOR SERENA THOUGH!!!!

Rafa will win the whole thing is my prediction. I like Federer's chances of beating Djokovic. I think Djokovic has too much pressure and youth to step up and win 2 slams in one year. I think he will do it in the future. Rafa beat him on Deco Turf in the Olympics and if it is anyone who is coming to New York ready it is Rafa. He wants to finally get that clay court specialist title off of his back and if he can conquer a slam on his least favorite surface then it is lights out on that statement hopefully forever. So my predictions are as follows:

I think Nadal will be Murray as I think Murray has the best chance of coming out of his quarter. I like the way he plays. Gulbis is a long shot.

Djokovic will lose to Federer if he makes it that far. I do think Roger has new confidence after winning the Gold in Beijing.

Nadal will beat Federer and it will strictly and professionally be all about the HUGE mental edge Rafa has over Roger. Sorry Federer fans but Rafa has Roger's number.

I could be wrong but that is how I see it. I basically agree with Steve except for when it comes to Djokovic. Another wild, wild horse is Safin and boy do I love to see him play when he is on his game. He just destroyed Djokovic at Wimbledon. He has I think the most talent outside of Federer and Nadal on the tour. It is a shame his body and his mind have let him down so much. BOY HAS SKILLS!!!!!

Oh, I forgot about the women. I agree with Steve on everything although there is a chance Venus could be baby sis but me thinks Serena loves to hog the spotlight of New York so much and she is due to take Flushing Meadow by storm. I think she is stoked by winning the Gold albeit in doubles. I also hope the sisters enter Doubles as I love to see them demolish people on the court. Those two destroy ladies in doubles competition.

I am looking forward to seeing the tournament next week.

Is there sombody else that thinks that Mathieu will make the quarters and Seppi and Zverev will get to the 4th round? Or it's just me?

world no 2 roger federer...
that has such a weird ring to it

does anyone know which day which matches are being played? im going on the 25th during the day and am wondering who i am going to see play

I'm wondering how Steve's fared in the other majors this year...

Michelle, I hope the Williams sisters play doubles too -- they do so well, and it helps their singles. I'm bummed they're slated to meet in the quarters. Whether or not they make it there, it's clear they don't play as well when they know meeting early is a possibility.

Final: Nadal vs Djokovic? Are you serious??? Do you think Federer will lose to Nole in the semis??
So this is what's left of Roger Federer, eh? The minute he's not no 1 anymore, he's become practically a nobody! And what's with the repeated remarks like "Federer at no 2? Doesn't it seem strange????" and "Seems weird to see Federer have to work his way UP the draw"???? It's people like you who bring him down, and then you expect him not to cave in to the pressure. Darn you all!!! I can't guarantee anything for the USO, especially regarding Roger, but I hope you all are sorry by the time 7th September is over!!!! If, suppose, RF wins his 13th this year, you'll change your views faster than you can say "Nadal's the best," and start ranting about how the former no 1 is back in form, is actually still capable of being the best, blah blah blah. You deserve to be sorry, you miserable turncoats! Let's not forget 237 weeks and 4-time defending champion! I hardly think RF is going to let a couple of wanna-be Supermen ruin in that easily for him!

The Olympic Gold might be what Federer needs to get back on track. No. 2 might be a blessing in disguise as Federer doesn't have the pressure on him. All of the expectations are on Nadal.

Can Nadal hold up to the New York atmosphere? Borg couldn't, can Nadal. Nadal hasn't proven that yet, although I think all of us would like to see a Nadal-Federer final.

I hope Federer can win it to redeem his season. He is too great of a player not to win a least one grand slam. I think for once, the New York fans might be with Federer, if it happens. They pulled for Djokovic, Roddick, and Agassi in the preceding finals. Perhaps Federer's past accomplishments can now be put in proper perspective now that he is No. 2 [sounds odd].

BTW, Sarah, I feel your predictions have a good chance of coming true. Good guessing.

I totally agree with you Maha. It sounds like some tennis commentators feel Federer is finished as a top player.

Many may have forgotten a similar parallel: In 1988, Ivan Lendl lost the #1 position to a hot Mats Wilander. Lendl had been #1 from 1985-87. Lendl returned to #1 in 1989 after winning the Australian Open and then went to the finals of the U.S. Open later that year and was the #1 player for the year 1989.

Lendl was 30 when he returned to #1. Federer is 27 and has plenty left.

Again, I agree with you Maha. You're right on it.

The backhand is the clue for Nadal's first US Open. If he is going for it, there is nobody who can beat him at the moment. On the other hand, he will not have a chance hitting it with too much spin.

For the women, it is just not interesting anymore...

I'm glad with these prediction because it is always wrong...

--peace--

Wow Maha what was that?

"Final: Nadal vs Djokovic? Are you serious??? Do you think Federer will lose to Nole in the semis??
So this is what's left of Roger Federer, eh? The minute he's not no 1 anymore, he's become practically a nobody!"

So you think that losing in the semis of a grand slam against the world number 3 makes you a nobody? I wish I could be a nobody. Besides that's exactly what happened earlier this year while Fed was still the number 1 player.

In the aussie open

it's the first time for years that (the beijing crash vs blake as absolute hard rock bottom) the majority of experts and fans project a final nadal vs djokovic...but underastimating the former world number 1 (would have been ridiculous 3 months ago to even think about that)could be his big chance to strike back...and come on there's no better way to do that than beating world number 5,3 & 1 on his way to a possible 5th consecutive title.a very thrilling time for all the roger fans, the ultimate challange and a real test on federers way to become however the world's greatest tennis player ever...to achieve it he has to come back; strong, focused & and magical!

Willrich, thanks. If you're a Fed fan, as I'm guessing you are, let's hope for the best for him.

Argiedude: You didn't need to add the "Aussie open" bit for me to know which match you were talking about. Forget the mononucleosis? And what I meant when I said "nobody" was that up until a few months ago, people hardly expected Federer to lose a Grand Slam semi to a world no 3 or 4. Now, Djokovic is almost being touted as a favourite in such encounters, and there's hardly any expectations left of Federer! You certainly know what I mean, and if you would be happy to be the "nobody" who loses to no 3 in the semis, I hardly think Roger Federer would share your point of view. After all, following 237 weeks at the top, it's a little hard to settle for the mere joy of reaching a semi final, don't you think?

and he surely will!!!

Here's something worth remembering. The US Open is different from all the other Grand Slams in one crucial respect that could have the greatest effect on the outcome of the Men's Tournament: the Semi Final's are played on the final Saturday, and then the Championship Match is the very next day. It's the only Grand Slam that doesn't offer a 1 day break between the Semis & The Final.

So let's assume we get the Djokovic-Federer Semi-Final (and I understand we're a long way from that today). That match could be brutal in many different ways, not the least of which is the presumed lack of love between them. It's a match that can easily be long, and will definitely be draining physically, psychologically and emotionally. To come back from a match like that the very next day to play for the title would be a monumental accomplishment. They can only hope the other Semi-Final is as taxing. If we accept the seedings to hold, then the winner here will be the guy that best recovers from what promises to be some brutal Semi-Finals the previous day.

"To achieve it he has to come back strong, focused and magical...And he surely will!"

Touche, Mandrake.

Yeah Maha I remember the mononucleosis but I also remember Fed's recent matches and he is not even playing at 50 % of his potential. I'd love to see Roger winning the whole thing (he's my second favorite player behind Nalbandian) but let's face it, Federer's recent form isn't the best.

Argiedude, it's not as if Nalbandian's been winning 3 out of 4 major tournaments recently, has he? :P Only kidding.
Actually, you can't tell by Roger's recent form. He may have to lost to Blake in Beijing, but as a part of Fedrinka he was "on fire!". It's clear that his poor "recent form" has little to do with "old age" and physical weariness, as some put it, but rather with mental fatigue and a loss of faith in himself. Therefore, it is more important than ever for his fans to show THEIR faith in him, so he can re-build the confidence and power to conquer his demons and come back with a bang. Because the media and the journalists, not least the writers on THIS website, are doing little to help boost his self-esteem.

ROGER: YOU'RE IN IT TO WIN IT! Otherwise there's no point in it!!!
(Hey... that rhymed...)

I agree that his recent slump isn't related to an age problem but to a lost of confidence. But I don't think that fans can get him out of the slump, only he can do that (and a little bit of luck). And the fact that journalists and fans no longer have him as the main guy to win every single tournament I think it's good for him, it could take off some of the inmense amount of pressure that he has to bare with.

JO-WILFRIED TSONGA!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I will be hoping for a miracle. I will be in flushing on labor day weekend hoping to see my two fave players battling each other - Jo Tsonga vs Marat Safin. I love GASQUET and MONFEEES as well. Del Potro is my other top 5 - if he loses to murray i'll be really pissed.

I will go with Federer and Serena as winners. Finalists i think would be Nadal and Jankovic respectively.

The hard court will be harsh on Rafa's knees while Roger floats with ease like a butterfly... so what's the point,,,? Good guess!

steve great post as usual,seeing nadal wen't well at olympics,they surface si the same and also use same balls, as us open

rafa nadal singles champion,

safina womans champion,safina won two back titles,before olympics,only tiredness caught up with her in that 3rd set at olympics,she deserves a slam this year,after r/u at r/garos this year,safina future no 1 wta player, go girl!

I've only just noticed that Djoko has a tricky first round. Clement won at Queens in 2007, in 3 sets, maybe he could be difficult for Djoko if Djoko is a bit flat, or tired, or lacking in confidence.

Rafa and JJ are my hopes, but I wouldn't go so far as to call them predictions!

I understand the Rafa pick, but he needs to pass the semis first at this slam. No, Federer vs Blake in the final. Federer wins of course.

steve, great post and great predictions!

on the men's, agree but most vulnerable would be rogi not withstanding olympic doub gold medal.

the womens : think it'll be venus rather than serena.

Prediction is prediction. I still hope Roger can get the USO title this year if he is at his top performance.

I can already see the tennis headlines :

" Pesky Stephanek dumps out Federer in 3rd "

" Dementieva the summer surprise Champ"

it is hard to tell how injured an injured player is...

i think dellacqua can upset ivanovic and make it to round three...

only because ivanovic is injured though...there is no way ivanovic is winning this open...

"it is hard to tell how injured an injured player is...

i think dellacqua can upset ivanovic and make it to round three...

only because ivanovic is injured though...there is no way ivanovic is winning this open... "

she can definitely do it ana's so brittle at the moment

don't worry, gocaseygo, i am australian and a full supporter of casey...she is familiar with centre stage now...has way more experience and does well under pressure...

although i remember how sharapova blasted her on the court this time last year...she has definitely come a long way...

On the women's side, impossible to tell. Serena, maybe, but they'va all been so darn inconsistent there's no telling what's going to happen.

On the men's side... Call me an idealist, but I'm STILL sticking with Federer. Of course, he needs to be at his best, both physically and mentally, and if he can do that then there is no stopping him. IF. But right now we all know the man who needs stopping...

I have my fingers crossed. PLEASE, Roger, don't let me down. This is your last chance.

Since when does winning in doubles translate into a win in singles? If Roger wins the USO I doubt Olympic doubles is the key..

But if Novak stretches him to five long sets on Saturday and Nadal is lurking in the final..then we'll see if Roger has any lingering physical effects of his mono...

VAMOS RAFA!

ALLEZ ROGER!!!!!!

(I thought that if someone wrote 'vamos Rafa' then directly below it should be this. Stupid, I know. But I had to) :P

Safina's been runner-up in RG and Olympics. I see her either losing in the first week, or winning the whole thing. :D

i guess guys are having a hard time with roger at the bottom of the draw wow just seen written "roger and novak are in the top half with nadal in the bottom half"

My WTA quarter-finalist predictions:

Petrova v. Safina
Serena v. Radwanska
Li Na v. Kuznetsova
Zvonareva v. Wozniacki

Well... I got Jie Zheng right at Wimbledon...

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121935526404461489.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

if i`m not geting this wrong, novak has a shot at #2 again!
if he wins at uso, beating the mighty fed in sf, he`ll be ahead of roger by few points.
having in mind that he had a chance in hamburg and didn`t make it, it`ll be interesting to see how it ends now.

can somebody confirm this calculation? i`m not bad at math but i`m confused with this years calendar so i could be wrong...

Ajde Ana and Nole!!!!!!

Just not RAFA!

if it was any other year, federer would win in 100%
now im not sure
my predictions:
federer over djokovic
nadal over murray/roddick/del potro
ok federer over nadal
tough 5 setter if nadal plays his best and federer 95%
federer wins in 4 sets if he plays his 100% best
and 4 sets for nadal if he plays well and roger plays bad

if it was any other year, federer would win in 100%
now im not sure
my predictions:
federer over djokovic
nadal over murray/roddick/del potro
ok federer over nadal
tough 5 setter if nadal plays his best and federer 95%
federer wins in 4 sets if he plays his 100% best
and 4 sets for nadal if he plays well and roger plays bad

double post accident

Rafa will be no.1. Nobody cares whose no.2 or 3..

shameel,
Obviously YOU cared when Rafa was no 2, so don't act as if that spot or the 3rd holds no value just because Nadal is now no.1. We'll see how long you go on saying the same thing.