So I started by taking a quick scan down the men’s draw this afternoon to see where Novak Djokovic had landed. Starting at the top, I looked at the names of each of the major seeds and eventually saw that the Serb was in the bottom half. “One more time with Rafa,” I thought. I kept scrolling and was shocked to see that I had been wrong—Roger Federer was the name at the very bottom of the draw.

This was a little surreal. I had actually read the name at the very top of the draw—"Rafael Nadal"—as "Roger Federer." That’s how big an upheaval the new ATP order is. The old one, with Federer on top and Nadal trailing, has been around for so long that it’s ingrained in my subconscious. It's like going against nature.

As for the women’s side, I was struck by the fact that the top seeds are both from the tiny country of Serbia, something that should continue to amaze us—by the way, why do these things happen in little clusters: two Belgians (Henin and Clijsters), two Germans (Becker and Graf), now three Serbs (Ivanovic, Jankovic, and Djokovic)? Other than that, this looks like a repeat of last year’s women’s event, when most of the heavy artillery was up top—this should quiet conspiracy theorists who speculated that it was done to help Maria Sharapova in 2007; do you think the USTA would go out of its way to put Jelena Jankovic into its prime-time final? In 2007, the result was that Svetlana Kuznetsova was allowed to sneak through in the bottom half. She might do it again.

On the one hand, the Open feels a little like overkill coming on the heels of such a successful Olympic tournament. On the other, how can we complain? This is a reasonable facsimile of what most of us have wanted the schedule to look like for years—compressed, with few lulls, and packed with a high percentage of significant events.

As I said, we have the draws, which means we can at least imagine how they will play out. The fact that they won’t play out the way we think—or anywhere close to what we think—is no reason for us not to be brave and make a few predictions anyway.

The Women
First Quarter
Ana Ivanovic is back at No. 1, which I suppose makes sense; she has won a Slam. But she’s still recovering from a thumb injury and hasn’t done much of anything since losing early at Wimbledon. So we don’t have much to go on when it comes to her form. There are some quasi-names near her—Dellacqua, Kanepi, Dechy, Cornet, plus Mauresmo and Petrova—but I’ll take Ivanovic into the quarters, where she might face Dinara Safina. The trendy pick would be Safina there; she’s been the player of the summer. But it’s hardly a sure thing. She may be a little disappointed, her momentum a little slowed, after coming so close to gold in Beijing, and Ivanovic has also beaten her the last three times they’ve played. But I think Safina's form has been too good for her not to extend it to her second Slam semi. She's made the quarters at Flushing before, and, for what it's worth, her brother has also played some pretty good ball here in the past.
Semifinalist: Safina

Second Quarter
This section is bracketed by the Williams sisters. It’s never clear what you’re going to get from these two, but I don’t see much to keep them from facing off in the quarters. Perhap Szavay on Serena’s side, and a bigger perhaps for Radwanska on Venus’—she upended Sharapova here last year. As for a rematch of the Wimbledon final, I don’t think Serena wants an unpleasant surprise like that twice in a row. What she wants is a Slam of her own in 2008, to match her sister's.
Semifinalist: Serena Williams

Third Quarter
Here’s where it starts to get a little rough, where we start to miss the Henins and Sharapovas of the world. The two top seeds are Elena Dementieva and Kuznetsova. Their primary challengers, at least on paper, are Chakvetadze and Schnyder. Kuznetsova reached the final last year, but Dementieva is on a high after winning a gold medal (on the same surface she’ll see in New York) and has been to an Open final of her own before. I think she’ll continue with her strong play.
Semifinalist: Dementieva

Fourth Quarter
Finally we stagger into the bottom quarter, led by Jankovic and Olympic bronze medalist Vera Zvonareva. This Serb has also been hurt, but she made her Slam breakthrough at the Open a couple years ago. Her draw includes a testy opponent in Caroline Wozniacki, who took her to three sets at Wimbledon, in the fourth round.
Semifinalist: Jankovic

Semifinals: S. Williams d. Safina; Dementieva d. Jankovic
Final: S. Williams d. Dementieva

The Men
First Quarter
Rafael Nadal makes his debut at the top of a major-tournament draw, but it’s not like it benefits him any more than being No. 2. He still might face a tricky opponent like hard-hitting Victor Troicki—tricky Troicky—or a vet like Olivier Rochus, or a clean-swinger like Philipp Kohlschreiber. And it didn’t keep him from drawing the most dreaded name of all, tennis’ prince of darkness, Ivo Karlovic himself. Nadal beat him in a third-set tiebreaker at Queen’s this year, and he’ll see him again if Dr. Ace can survive until the fourth round.

The bottom half features three of the game’s most erratic and frustrating talents: Blake, Monfils, and Nalbandian. None of them, even on hard courts, are likely to beat Nadal over five sets, not with the iron-clad confidence the Spaniard has at the moment. He’s got a big win—the Olympics—on DecoTurf under his belt, which could be the final ingredient he needs to go all the way at Flushing Meadows. He’s going to be the face of the event, of tennis itself, but he’s always made a specialty of blocking every thing out except the little yellow ball.
First-round match to watch: Blake vs. Donald Young
Semifinalist: Nadal

Second Quarter
David Ferrer is the top seed, but three younger names stand out: Del Potro, Murray, and Wawrinka. Del Potro has won four straight tournaments, Murray has pushed his ranking all the way to No. 6 despite a disappointing Olympics, and Wawrinka should get a jolt of confidence from his doubles gold in Beijing. Can any of them translate that into their first Slam semi? I don’t think Del Potro is ready; Wawrinka may be in the Top 10, but his results haven’t been that consistently strong; Murray is a wild card—meltdowns still lurk and his fitness will be tested—but I think if he gets his famous choppers into this he’ll gain confidence with each match. This summer I think he started to believe, at last, that he belonged with the best.
Sleeper: Feliciano Lopez. He's near Murray, and he gave Federer all he could handle in Ashe Stadium in 2007.
Semifinalist: Murray

Third Quarter
Your eyes go immediately to the top of this quarter, where Andy Roddick is scheduled to face Fabrice Santoro in a guaranteed night spectacle. I’m thinking there will be a few dicey moments before Roddick finally hammers the Magician off the court. The other names that stick out here are Tsonga (whoa, he’s back?), Gonzalez (the silver medalist might get an air war with Roddick in the fourth), and Marin Cilic, the latest beanpole monster hitter from Croatia. But the name that counts is Novak Djokovic’s. He may not have beaten Nadal in Beijing, but he played as well as could be expected, and improved his form from earlier in the summer. Plus: He’s a Broadway kind of guy.
Sleeper: Ernests Gulbis, who could face Roddick in the second round
Semifinalist: Djokovic

Fourth Quarter
Oh, the indignity. Federer has to go up the draw this time! It looks so much harder than rafting down it the way he always has. His first test might come against that eternal agitator, Radek Stepanek, in the third round—the Czech beat him on clay in Rome but likes hard courts best. After that, it’s pretty quiet until the quarters, where Federer is slotted to meet Nikolay Davydenko, or perhaps Richard Gasquet, both of whom have generally been cannon-fodder for the world No. 2 (Federer as “world No. 2”; weird thing to say, isn’t it?). Based on No. 2's recent results, there will be some ugly moments along the way, and most likely a serious scare, but being the four-time defending champion has to help a little. Right?
First-round match to watch: Gasquet vs. Haas. Nice backhands
Semifinalist: Federer

Semifinals: Nadal d. Murray; Djokovic d. Federer
Final: Nadal d. Djokovic

See you from Flushing Meadows starting Monday. We'll have all kinds of things to talk about.