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« Still With the Aura Playing Ball: I Smell a Meltdown »
"Who's the Pigeon Now?"
Posted 08/04/2008 @ 7 :58 PM

AnWhat can we take away from our time in Toronto and Cincinnati? From my perspective, the last two weeks subtly but perceptibly deepened, entrenched, normalized, the changing of the ATP guard that began with Rafael Nadal’s win over Roger Federer in the Wimbledon final. The sport has always taken its cues from what happens in its capital, the All England Club, and it was true again in the far-flung outposts of Canada and Cincy. There, Nadal consolidated his stirring victory on Centre Court by finally overtaking Federer at No. 1 after three years of toiling in the second spot. Just down the totem pole, two fellow members of the “young gun” generation, Andy Murray and Novak Djokovic, made significant statements—Djokovic by ending Nadal’s 32-match win streak and putting himself back in the mix for the Olympics and the U.S. Open, and Murray by winning his first Masters title.

Just as significant were the Top 10 players who didn’t appear in the later rounds at either event: Federer, who will be 27 next week; Andy Roddick, 26 at the end of August; Nikolay Davydenko, 27; and James Blake, 28. Tennis “generations” are pretty brief, lasting only about three or four years—in Toronto we were already talking about an even newer face in 19-year-old Marin Cilic of Croatia, who recorded the biggest win of his young career by defeating Roddick. But if this was not a full-blown coup by the young guns, it was the beginnings of a quiet revolt. Most significant to me was how natural it suddenly seemed that Murray and Djokovic would be the last ones standing at a Masters tournament.

We knew Djokovic belonged there, but while it was Murray’s first Masters final, it was also hardly a surprise after the improvement—in his play and, more important, his demeanor—he showed at Wimbledon and last week in Toronto. There he notched his first career win over Djokovic after three humiliating defeats. By the time the two 21-year-olds began their match in Cincy, the turnaround was complete. You might say that they switched their normal roles on Sunday: Djokovic was negative and volatile, while Murray was poised and able to channel his eclectic game into a simple, winning formula.

Djokovic had been scintillating the night before in beating Nadal. But there had been something a little too flashy about the way he went about it. The down-the-line forehand winners he kept firing past the Spaniard from outside of the court were not shots that anyone, including Djokovic, can keep hitting on a regular basis—as someone once said of the way Jimmy Connors hit backhand winners, the Serb seemed to think his shots were worth two points each. By the middle of the second set the next day, Djokovic had traveled 180 degrees in the other direction. As in Toronto, he couldn’t keep two consecutive forehands in the court against Murray. He spent the rest of the set fighting himself, his racquet, and even his normally trusty backhand, which he began to spray almost in imitation of his forehand. Only his serve allowed him to remain anywhere near Murray.

Part of this was physical. Djokovic was breathing hard early in the match and looked exhausted by the end. But I don’t think that was the decisive factor. I’ve said in the past that he carries a dangerous amount of frustration with him during his matches—think of it as a debt load that, on occasion, he can’t pay off. On Sunday ESPN’s Darren Cahill took this observation one step further. He noted during the second set that Djokovic had let his frustration overwhelm him to the point where he had checked out competitively and conceded that it wasn’t his day. I’d never thought of it quite that way, but it’s a trend with the Serb when things aren’t going well. The dissatisfaction gets to be too much, and he pulls a mental trigger. Sometimes he calls it a day completely (see his match against Federer in Monte Carlo), sometimes he chucks in his now obligatory drop shot when he’s down match point. Djokovic did that again on Sunday, except that the ball skimmed the tape and ended up winning him the point and eventually the game. That’s how the entire second set went for Djokovic; as Cahill noted, the more the Serb conceded, the more relaxed his shots became, and the better he played. Djokovic saved four match points at 3-5 and extended the final tiebreaker all the way to 7-5. Looking desperate to lose the set most of the time, he very nearly ended up winning it.

This is a different version of the Djokovic that I was writing about as recently as May. Regarding his recently-erratic forehand, maybe it’s Murray’s defensive speed that forces him to try for too much, or maybe that little flourish at the top of his backswing really does hurt its consistency. Djokovic can hit flashy winners from that side, but now we know that it can go off and bring down his entire game. More important was his mental approach to Sunday’s final. This wasn’t the same guy who was so uncannily confident, organized, and psychologically uncluttered at the U.S. and Australian Opens. What’s changed? I’d chalk it up to the expectations game. At those events, Djokovic was still the hunter; he had encountered almost no resistance on his shockingly smooth ride up to No. 3 in the world and a Grand Slam title. But that ended when he couldn’t pass Nadal this spring; since then he’s had to deal with defending his own position rather than hunting anyone down. He hasn't been quite the same player, first at Wimbledon and now against Murray. Maybe this is the downside of having such innate and uncanny confidence. When Djokovic’s game doesn’t match his own very high expectations for it, he reacts with an unsustainable and unproductive frustration.

Does this sound like someone we know? Until Wimbledon this year, “unsustainable and unproductive frustration” seemed to be the basis for Andy Murray’s game. But his victories at the All England Club proved once and for all to him that putting childish things away—including his distinctly adolescent rage—really did help. He had more evidence for that on Sunday, as he kept his temper in check all afternoon. But beyond that, Murray also showed a new maturity from a tactical point of view. His downfall in the past had been his entertaining but ultimately misguided passion for variety and degree of difficulty. Murray never hit two serves in a row the same way or at the same speed; when he put himself in a winning position in a rally, he tended to use his drop shot as a putaway (tellingly, it was Djokovic, rather than Murray, who was doing this in Cincy); and he seemed to go out of his way to get himself into scrambling defensive positions, just so he could try for a spectacular forehand on the run. As his ex-coach Brad Gilbert said yesterday, Murray was constantly changing his “playing philosophy” in the middle of matches.

Instead, he beat Djokovic by going against all his tendencies and sticking to one simple, disciplined philosophy: Keep the ball up the middle until an opportunity presented itself, and then work the ball outward from there. It’s baseline tennis 101, and it was the best way to beat Djokovic, who looked like he would have had trouble hitting the broad side of a barn at times.

Still, there were echoes of Murray's past. Despite outplaying his opponent for the entire first set, he couldn’t capitalize on any break chances. Up 6-1 in the breaker, he squandered a few points before Djokovic finally handed it back to him. Then, serving for the match at 5-3 in the second set, Murray double-faulted twice and retreated into his old defensive stance when he had match points. Up 4-2 in the second-set breaker, three points from the title, he made two bad errors and let out some vintage teeth-baring vitriol.

That’s when the new Murray reasserted himself, just the way Djokovic has on many other days. The two produced the best point of the match, a back-and-forth, corner-to-corner slugfest that Murray finally won with an aggressive, but not too aggressive, backhand crosscourt winner. It was the shot of a born tennis player, smooth, instinctive, and easily powerful. But it couldn’t have happened it Murray hadn’t channeled his frustration in a positive direction. All that was left was for him to stagger forward and hit a final backhand winner before collapsing into his seat on the sidelines, a Masters winner. As the ever-argumentative Chris Fowler of ESPN said of the budding rivalry between these two, "Who's the pigeon now?"

Together, Djokovic and Murray represent the latest form of the modern baseline game. Rather than building their games on killer serves or forehands the way Federer, Roddick, Blake, and Fernando Gonzalez did, they win with all-around efficiency and rely on their two-handed backhands as consistent weapons—their tennis is stylishly compact and made for all surfaces. But they’re also flip sides of that same modern coin, and they have the makings of an intriguing rivalry. Djokovic seems to be almost a computer-generated tennis player, with the perfect frame and an ideal blend of contemporary and classic technique. He arrived on the pro scene with his game fully formed, and is only now having to struggle with a little with the expectations he has created. Murray seems at first glance to be the consummate non-athlete—how many pro tennis players have wild red hair and look like they're hobbling around the court between points? Emotionally, he has also been a more typical kid than Djokovic. Murray has gone through a public growing-up process to get to where he is now, trying on a variety of coaches, attitudes, and facial-hair styles. But as of right now, these two young guns who were born seven days apart have arrived at pretty much the same place. Djokovic is No. 3; Murray is now No. 6, his highest ranking yet. It will be fun to watch them exploit their individual talents, and learn to deal with their individual frustrations, in the future. It will also be fun to watch them deal with facing each other. But that's the future. For today, with Murray's arrival and Nadal's ascent to No. 1, the ATP's new guard feels just a little more entrenched, a little more normal.

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um, furst??

Nice take on Sunday's final, Steve.

That word "eclectic" is perfect for describing Murray's game. I have seen him play other matches this year where he was able to hold his frustration in check, but not necessarily on the biggest occasions.

I believe he's in a good position to take the number five or four spot later this year, with fewer points to defend than either Davydenko or Ferrer. A good run at the US Open would surely do his confidence a whole heap of good. He also said that although he didn't do brilliantly during the clay season (his worst surface) that he'd done satisfactorily (while working with Alex Corretja) which gave him something to build on.

I like the idea of Djokovic as a "computer generated tennis player".

steve, i laughed when i saw djokovic hit that dropshot on matchpoint again. yup, we've seen it so many times. how many times did he do that against nadal in hamburg that instead of ending the match (which i'm sure he was hoping to do), he extended it even further. same thing here. great analysis about djokovic checking out of matches.

i'm glad murray has finally broken through. i was getting quite impatient there. now, when do you think gasquet would breakthrough?

When Nikolay defeated Rafael to win Key Biscayne, Nikolay results have been average at best in the Slams and Masters since then.

Hope Murray does not flame out when the USO starts in 3 weeks as he said in the past, that he would rather win USO than Wimbledon. If Murray does have a good run at USO, he may be number 4 going into the fall season.

Also, instead of wandering where Novak is going to land in the draw, that question is better asked about Murray as he could be playing any of the Big 3 in the quarterfinals. IMO, the one player that do not need to see Murray in his quarter is Federer. Not only is Murray is 2-1 against Roger but he has the game to frustrate Roger consistently. In their last meeting, Roger had no break chances in Dubai.

you forgot david nalbandian in the past generation!

I would think Djokovic should be in Federer's half. Federer will be seeded no. 2 going into the Open regardless of what happens in the Olympics. Doesn't the USO adhere to the 1 vs. 4, 2 vs. 3 format?

Wouldn't it be something if we get a Nadal v Murray, Djokovic v Federer semi in the USO? Woot! Woot!

Rasmus: No, the USO, like every other slam, assigns the #3 and #4 randomly to each half.

Crazyone: Dang. Well, here's an initial offering to the draw gods then...

Rasmus: number 3 placing is apparently random; so there's a 50/50 chance that either Djokovic or Murray will be in Fed's half.

sorry, didn't mean to echo Crazyone.

but either way, if they meet, either of these players will likely present a challenge to Roger.

Syd: I don't believe Murray can make #4 for the USO, so BOTH Murray and Djokovic could be in Federer's half. Murray could be in Fed's quarter.

Based on the rankings right now (without factoring in the Olympics), Federer could meet Roddick in R16, Murray in QFs, Djokovic in SFs, and Nadal in finals.

Murray was lucky that Djokovic wasn't playing anywhere near his best. I think the result would have been different had the final been played in cooler weather in the evening.

Now that Murray has made his move, when will Gasquet do the same? The first time I saw this player play in person was USO 2005 where he beat Ljubicic. It is mind boggling how much talent this player possess but for the life of me, he finds ways to lose.

I'd hate to see him become just a Top 20er or 50er player, which he is slowly becoming.

Crazyone: that is a horrifying scenario. Please. please.

Second that on Gasquet... probably a Top 3 talent... one of the best matches I have seen him play was Canada Masters final in 2006 against Roger. Won first set easily and was rolling... but then lost the plot and soon after the match (on the flip side, those were the days when Roger managed to win matches he should have lost!). Imagine a world where the Top 4 (Murray now deserves to be in there), Gasquet, Tsonga, Monfils, Gulbis, Cilic, maybe a Del Potro all hit their stride in the next 12 months... what mouth-watering match-ups all over the place!!!

Syd/crazyone - that is a horrifying scenario alright... but as a S.S.Federer lifer, I take solace in the fact that it could just as easily be Rafa's draw!!!

right, fellow s.s. Federer; if the draw below no.s One and Two is truly random. But i don't think it is, is ?don't they do some fiddling around in each quarter to ensure that seeds are even distributed in the 4 quarters?

Wouldn't it prove that Federer was back and the best if he did make it through that draw though?

Not that I want that draw. It'd be horribly imbalanced.

True crazyone... that would be heroic! But given current form, he may stumble at an early hurdle... best to not wish upon him a heroic journey! (praying hard to give him a smooth ride!)

Syd, 3 and 4 will be on opposite sides in quarters different from 1 and 2. 5-8 should all be split up into different quarters. And so on. Djokovic is currently 3, Murray is 6, and Roddick is 9, so yes, it could happen if the rankings stay put after the Olympics. O_o

And yes, if Federer had that draw and still won...well, that would just be beyond words. ^^ As things stand for him right now, though, I hope that's not what he gets. *crosses fingers* (If I knew for a certainty in advance that he would do it, though, of course I'd like that. ^^)

Steve, you leave us for quite some time but always manage to come back with something heavy.

But let's see -

"Natural" is just about the PERFECT word to use for justifying how or why Andy and Novak remained the last men standing on Sunday.

About Djokovic being too flashy in engineering his win over Nadal, can't say much about that as I had to leave home when the game was halfway through the 1st set.

"Up 4-2 in the second-set breaker, three points from the title, he made two bad errors and let out some vintage teeth-baring vitriol."

LOL. Yeah, still can picture this in my mind. Andy was so very mad at himself for losing the point. But he has quite improved on his facial contortions that he has kept himself from baring his teeth too much. He used to do this when he gets tired - mouth hanging wide open while waiting for the opponent to serve, etc.

With this win and seeing how much better Andy is playing this year, I close my eyes and see him as the "natural" No. 4, jumping past David Ferrer and Nikolai Davydenko in the rankings.

Djokovic is a huge talent but when he gets sloppy, he gets really sloppy. He was visibly tired in the 2nd set after each long rally. Shoulders heaving, mouth wide open while breathing hard. Before the start of one game, he even held his hand up to Murray to wait or not serve yet as Novak was still catching his breath. He did it with a pleading smile though. Well, what are friends for?

"Djokovic seems to be almost a computer-generated tennis player, with the perfect frame and an ideal blend of contemporary and classic technique. He arrived on the pro scene with his game fully formed, and is only now having to struggle with a little with the expectations he has created."

"Murray seems at first glance to be the consummate non-athlete—how many pro tennis players have wild red hair and look like they're hobbling around the court between points?"

Two classic sentences, only from Steve. In short, Djokovic grew up way too fast and is only now begining to appreciate that his batteries can die on him. As for Andy, take a closer look at his legs and you will see that one is longer than the other, hence the hobble, but I prefer to call it shuffle. He shuffles his feet, small steps, while one shoulder drops lower than the other. He looked better with shorter hair during Wimbledon and should get a haircut NOW. And while we are with the hair thing, Jamie looked really nice in the stands with his short hair.

Wherever these two men are headed, any rivalry between the Murray and Djokovic would be intriguing as each have much respect for the other. Beautiful embrace at the net, don't you think?

If Andy plays well through to 2009, what a great four-way rivalry at the top! A Swiss, a Spaniard, a Serb and a Brit. Who can ask for more?

geikou:

Thanks. Yes, it would be magnificent if he could overcome Djokovic and Murray. Roger has the ability to do so. also crossing fingers(I am not as worried about Roddick.) That would shut everyone up pretty quickly wouldn't it.

NIce piece Steve. I'm not sure Djoko was at his best but Murray's becoming more consistent. I think he is going to keep improving, I'm sure the others will too. Murray said after WImby that he realised how good the top 3 were and how much he would have to improve, his mother reiterates that in the interview on this site i think.

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