Weird that Murray has now become the pick du jour, at least in a semi-darkhorse sense, for the USO. But give him credit. Two recent victories of late over Djokivic and his first Masters-level title. Still, I picked the Djoker a couple months back and I'm sticking to it. He's the best hardcourt player since Fed in his prime, and I would think last year's runner-up result will serve him well.

All credit to Nadal for his POTL results and finally ending Fed's reign, but though I do think he'll have his best result ever at Flushing (reaching at least the semis), I don't see him winning unless a true darkhorse comes out of the other side of the bracket, which seems highly unlikely. Bottom line is that Rafa is just not near the player on hardcourt that he is on clay and grass. At least not yet.

Which leaves us with now disconcerting Federer. Both intresting and silly points have been made countless times on these threads, but one thing I haven't seen given much discussion (and maybe because it's assumed) is his age. Dude's 27. Yes, doesn't mean his career is over. Sampras, Aggasi and Connors all won slams in their early 30s, but with the exception of Agassi (who pissed away a good chunk of his 20s), none were as dominant as they had been when younger. Until someone proves otherwise, a male tennis player's prime is from the ages of 20 to 25 or 26. Doesn't mean Fed still can't surpass Sampras's all-time Slams record (I'm hoping he does) but I think it will be much tougher now and I can't see him ever as being dominant as he once was, which in some ways is to be expected.

Anyway, after the crushing Wimbeldon loss and his baffling results in Toronto and Cincy, it's hard for me to see him winning the USO. In fact, I wouldn't be surprise to see him "shocked" in the quarters or sooner. (Remember, Tipsarvic almost beat him at the Aussie.) Would love to be proven wrong, but I just think he's done for the year.

On the bright side, what I could see happening is that he takes a little of the winter off to rest and re-tool and then begins the '09 Aussie with a bang. Reaching the finals against a Djoker or Murray or even a Nadal, ready to make an "I'm not done yet" statement after having slipped to #3 in the rankings.

Dont sleep on Feds or Roddick, they both got at least 2 more good years left in em!!!

Sorry for my very bad english.BUT:
I can`t beleve what happend - Andy won few maches last two weeks and he is already in the same group with Roger, Rafael and Novak. This is so unfair to other players as Davidenko, Ferrer and Nalbandian , unfair to players that are so long time among top 5 in the world.This is unfair to top three players also, especial to Djokovic, because he is performing so well last cupple of years, he is AO Chammpion, he defeted few times all the best pleyers (incl. Federer, Nadal, Rodick...) and what he get - only critics when he sed that his dream and his goal is to be No. 1. Shame on him, that he dreamed about it!!!!
After Andy`s victory in Cincinati, on Eurosport we can watch his interwiev in 3 parts!!! And lot of reporters, especialy from Britan, already talking about him as future No. 1 and nobody complains that this is something bad, arogant to Federer or Nadal or Djokovic ( who is very consistent on third plase on ATP lists).
I could call all this histerie on Andy`s achievemnts last coupple of weeks - big professional gap.

I am sure Fed knows what to do in order to regroup and i do not think it is a bad year for him, he make at least sf in all grand slams. I strongly believe Fed will do much better at USO because
- toronto and cincy failings does not matter much for USO, at USO you have to win 3 sets against defending champ not 2.
-At grand slams, the feeling is totally different and also physical strength counts more for a 5 set match at any given day. Fed knows how to prepare a grandslam tournament more than anyone else.
- Fed will focus on the tournament as it will be his first gs.(He come Bejing early to practice more and stay at hotel for more concentration)
- Fed ultimately see that he cannot win always effortlessly with being no-2.

challenge begins now:)

cheers
-

Nice article Steve. And comparing Djokovic to a computer generated player was a very good one. Would love to see Djokovic getting his upper hand back over Murray in the coming tournaments.

We've been talking about Djokovic's and Murray's being the floaters in every tournament. How about the unofficial No.2 Roger becoming a floater when he gets to No.3 ? For now, more than a few could not even digest seeing no 2 seeding beside Roger's name in the USO.

hey rock

count me among those who savours seeing the #1 next to rafa's name, and wishing the #2 would be next to nole's name. ajde nole!

marija

great point. if nole even squeaks about becoming #1 or answers reporters that he thinks fed is more beatable now (i mean, duh! i wonder if he's been wrong this year thus far!), he's the brattiest most arrogant SOB in the tennis world. but when the brit media talk up andy's chances at cracking the top 3 (which has been the top 3 for nearly 2 years now), it's a love fest. damn media, and damn the so called tennis fans who are willing to believe all the bull they read about nole in the papers. i've even read some posts from people in these threads (more at pete's, actually) about how they WANT or EXPECT nole to behave to please THEIR sensibilities. frankly, it's juvenile (very). maybe people should realise what growing up means and grow up. i'm in a very protective-about-nole mode of late and i am with you in your sentiments above. ok, 'nuff said.

What impressed me most was Murray's dismantling of Karlovic. That will have send a huge signal to the all other players that you just cannot serve through Murray. To beat him you will need an all round game and answer all the questions he will set you. All his future opponents will be extremely anxious to play him from now on and this will cause them to overplay and make errors. I suspect Murray will fancy his chances against anyone now - except maybe on clay.

“Plus, why is it more remarkable to rely on the two handed backhand as a weapon rather than a killer serve or a forehand?”

I’d like to get an answer to that myself. Great question.

"Plus, why is it more remarkable to rely on the two handed backhand as a weapon rather than a killer serve or a forehand?”

No doubt a great question, but however great a backhand or a forehand can be, it also contributes more towards unforced errors than a serve (by way of double fault) does.

A great serve wins free points, but a great forehand/backhand does not, even though it takes skill, practice etc. to master/possess a great serve.

In this context though, the forehand and the serve have been clubbed together, while it is considered to be more remarkable to rely on the backhand as a weapon maybe because very generally speaking backhand has been considered the weaker wing. Normally players use it to stay in the rallies or set up points to finish off at the net or with the forehand.

There are of course players on the tour whose forehand/backhand combination cannot be considered a weakness..like Nadal, Agassi for example. Hence if the backhand is employed as a weapon, it tends to stand out....just reflects the evolution of the game.

Players are better today than during much of Fed's dominance the past four years, but it kills me to see this website and other media outlets suggesting his decline. Nadal definitely has stepped up (I'm thinking of the first two sets at Wimbledon, not the final result), and Fed's lost a little focus, but that's it. If Fed wins the USO, suddenly the media will say, "Fed's the greatest." If he loses a tough match in the semi's, the media will say, "See, I told you he's done for."

I've been a fan of Fed as a person, but not as a player, for the selfish and immature reason that he began shattering my sports idol Sampras's records. But I may just begin supporting him. If he wins the Open, I hope he says, "The tales of my death are greatly exaggerated."

Steve, when you look on this site's homepage there is an article called Gen then to Gen now I think , or something similar, above the article about Judy Murray. Misselling! It just directs you to this article which is underneath it on the homepage. What's the deal with people submitting articles for consideration? Is that allowed?

Hi Mariej,

No need to apologise for your English. It's very good. Eres de espana? Soy un profesor de ingles como un idioma extranjero, asi que entiendo un poco de los problemas cuales habladores de otras idiomas tienen. Pero tu ingles es casi perfecto. Por suerte, yo no tengo la confianza visitar los sitios extranjeros de tenis.

re what you said about Murray. I realise the media coverage of Murray can be frustrating but he is the only British player inside the top 100. Of the 4 countries to host grand slams, Britain is conspicuous as the only one which has not enjoyed a few home contenders consistently challenging for honours. Can you imagine the US open without one American player in contention, or the french or the Australian? Britain has been lucky to have henman then Murray close on his heels. They had long barren spells before that. I always liken Wimbledon to theUS masters in golf. Imagine that competition with only one American golfer to speak of. It's utterly unimagineable. So please forgive a little hysteria. There's a reason behind it.

Murray has the gift of reducing his opponent's abilities... i.e. he magnifies out the warts and mental fragility in opponents. Murray's deceptive speed, power, spin and guile aren't compelling tennis. Nalbandian had the same ability but he's put on 25 lbs and his beautiful backhand has lost its effectiveness.

Panda: Murray was injured for four or five months last year and took a while to come back - that's the key reason why his ranking dropped (maybe that and getting taken out by Tsonga in the first round of this year's AO). Nothing to do with his inherent ability to hit a tennis ball or play matches. We are currently entering the part of the season that Murray likes best, and there are ways for him to pick up points in the coming few months.

I'd rather watch Murray's style of tennis than Djokovic's, and now that he's matured,gotten fitter, and had these great wins I'll have a chance to do so in the later rounds much more regularly. He's great at the net, has tremendous touch, lobs, drops, serves huge and with offspeed. And, he returns so well.
For all this year Federer has been playing with no fifth gear. He'll find it again and everyone will remember why he's got the greatest game ever.

Great comment and especially great analyses of Nole's mind-set. I hope he and his coach red it too. Interesting that his mental crisis started with one of his best performance ever - against Nadal in Hamburg, after winning Rome Masters. He was so self-confident playing that match and really believed he could beat Rafa on clay, which he almost did. That match made him dreaming on beating Rafa in RG and that way tied his arms and legs so that Rafa woke him up very easily. Queen's was supposed to be a great revenge, but instead it created even deepest "Rafa-complex". Safin only pushed him a litlle deeper. OK, I agree Murray played a great game in the final, but for Djokovic the whole job was done day before when beating Nadal. Federer is his idol, but Nadal is his biggest rival, simply because of his age. As for Murray - everybody knows how talented he is. ONly thing that was missing was his consistency. Do you think he got it now. I am not sure...

J-Block wrote: I think Roger's fall from the top will be blindingly fast....

Björn Borg said exactly the same thing a couple of years ago, that when Federer did slip it would hit him so hard mentally that the downward slide would be rapid.

I read in the Spanish press that Alex Corretja spent more time talking to Murray about how to stay positive and not become angry and frustrated when he achieved less than the impossible perfection he was constantly demanding of himself, than about how to hone his clay court play; his counseling is obviously bearing fruit...

Steve-

No bracketology for the Olympics?????

Ok, here are mine then...

First Quarter.

Undenieably Federer is on a bad a streak but he has plenty of reasons to look at a deep run in these olympics. Why? Well... first, there is the need for his first big title of 2008; second, this is a great opportunity to re-establish himself as a serious contender to regain the no.1 spot Nadal has taken away from him and third, the olympics are a tournament that are highly ranked in Federer's scale, this is why I expect this environment to bring out the best in him, the real question is if he can sustain a decent level of consistency all the way through to achieve his ultimate goal. He opens up his quest for Olympic gold against a tough customer like Tursunov just to keep on finding several difficult obstacles along the way with a possible look at payback time in potentially facing Karlovic, Simon, Gonzalez or Ferrer and why not? Nadal, this can also be an extra motivation factor.

Great first round match up in Berdych vs Karlovic.

Semifinalist: Federer

Second Quarter.

This quarter is some sort of an enigma. Is Davydenko suddenly going to come back to form this summer? This could be his opportunity but he has a hungry -and very talented- youngster to face in the form of Ernest Gulbis, this has 'upset' written all over itself to me. Olympic bronze medalist Fernando Gozalez and grinding Spaniard David Ferrer are also in this section of the draw and they can match up as far as in the 3rd. round and while neither one of them has shown great signs of form this summer I expect Gonzalez to come through just because it seems to me he wants it a bit more and his game is somewhat better adapted to the hard courts. Watch out for Kiefer and Cilic as two very dangerous floaters.

Semifinalist: Gonzalez

Third Quarter.

What half of the draw will Novak Djokovic fall on? Yes, this still remains the most morbid question before a tennis tournament releases its draw. Ther Serb has shown that he can handle the soon to be No. 1 Nadal on a hard court but can he handle physical and mental fatigue? His way is toppled with plenty of players that can give him trouble -or beat him- any given day and he will have a look at this against his first round opponet, Robby Ginepri, who also almost beat Federer last week in Cincinnati. After that, the Serb could meet Youzhny and his shot making ability, the very eager Almagro or the always impredictable Nalbandian just to get to the Semis. I still think he can find a way to win matches when he is not playing his best just to right the ship at the right moment. The defending Champion Massu? Well, he has to make it past Nalbandian and Almagro to get to Djokovic in the quarters which I find unlikely...

Semifinalist: Djokovic

Fourth Quarter

Nadal and Murray could give us one match to remember if both happen to make it to the quarterfinals. These 2 have been in great form as off late and I would not expect anyting but a great 3 setter if they meet but both of their paths are not 'walks in the park' by any means. Nadal could face former No.1 and 2 time grand slam champion Lleyton Hewitt as soon as second round. As Seteve has said before, Nadal will find in the Aussie an extremely determined player that can mirror his defence and match his patience, plus Hewitt's game is better adapted to hard courts as he hits the fall flater, deeper and on the rise. Hewitt also happens to be one of the very few players with a winning record against the Spaniard and all these ingredients make this a must watch 2nd rounder. The always tricky Stepanek or the Russian with the big forehand Andreev could be waiting for him in the 3rd round and then of course the always crafty Murray in the quarters, remember the Scot has a thing for figuring out players he has never beaten before -like Nadal- this summer, just ask Djokovic. All these said as handful of dangerous floaters will looming in the mid of this section: Wawrinka, Ljubicic and Andreev to name a few.

Semifinalist: Murray

Semifinals:

Federer d. Gonzalez
Murray d. Djokovic

Final

Federer d. Murray

I forgot the bronze medal match:

Djokovic d. Gonzalez

I can not help but sense a bit of negativity you expressed towards play and personality of Novak. If one would not know one would think he is 27 years old and has many years of atp tennis behind him.
Remember Nadals last year and his struggles. Novak is an organic player- his game comes from who he is not from who he is told to be.
His only problem is not enough greed on court(which is a very good quality Nadal has).
I have a feeling your comments come from subjectivity which should not be present in fair writing.
Also , yes, he did retire few times from matches but he never said after lost matches he was ill or injured which other players said often enough after defeated by Djokovic.
I think he was really ill during the match with Murray. He was having trouble breathing. He never said anything.
Thank you.
Biljana

Who's the Pigeon Now <--------that's what i was looking for