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WTF is Happening
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11/19/2009 - 10:49 AM
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 We like to say that certain tournaments on certain occasions
are wide open, that there are no clear-cut favorites or safe bets.
But usually anything can’t happen. Usually there’s a player—his name might be Roger
Federer—who at least qualifies as the default choice to hold up
the champion’s trophy in the end. But I don’t think we can say that for the
ATP’s year-ending World Tour Finals, which makes its London debut on Sunday.
The long, winding, always-surprising 2009 season has left us with eight—OK, maybe
seven; OK, maybe six—guys with legitimate shots at winning the year’s last
and most lucrative title.
Each of them stands at some kind of crossroads. The
world No. 1 hasn’t had much juice in his last two matches. The guy with all the
momentum might be gassed. The guy who has been gassed might be
motivated to back up his breakthrough Slam win. The home favorite is still a
question mark at tournaments of this magnitude. The player with
the lowest ranking, who backed in as an alternate, might have the most favorable draw of anyone.
All of this is to be welcomed, and all of it is as it should
be in a draw that bans anyone outside of the Top 10. There’s no easing into the event and finding your form
here. All of this also seems appropriate for a tournament with these three
particular initials. What the heck is going to happen in London? No, WTF is
going to happen in London.
Group A
Roger Federer, Andy Murray, Fernando Verdasco, Juan Martin
del Potro
This is what we get to wind up the 11-month season? Group A and Group B? The ATP has taken bland to new heights when it comes to naming its fearsome year-end foursomes. What happened to Group Awesome and Group Superb? Too wrestling, I guess.
Group A is nominally Federer’s section to lose, though he's
vulnerable to both Murray and del Potro. Which Federer will show up? Will he
have the energy and hunger to lift himself out of his Paris doldrums? I can see
three reasons why he will. (1) He’s already come out of deeper doldrums this
season and recaptured every bit of his best form. (2) A four-time winner and one-time runner-up, Federer, like regular WTF champ Pete Sampras before him, is motivated by the
presence of his closest competitors. And like anyone else, he’s comfortable playing
guys he’s steamrolled on multiple occasions in the past. (3) Finally, as he said afterward, Federer didn’t play all
that poorly in Paris in the first place. He lacked initiative and pop on his strokes, but Julien Benneteau took the match to him in front of his home crowd.
Speaking of which, how will Andy Murray hold up in front of
his own countrymen? He has never seemed overly awed by the atmosphere at Wimbledon,
though I did feel he was more agitated and tentative than normal by the time
the semis came around this year. Of course, the WTF is not Wimbledon. Maybe
the not-quite-insane level of pressure that Murray will feel next week will help him without making him tight. He’s beaten Federer and del Potro this year, and
while he lost to Verdasco in Australia, I wouldn’t expect a repeat performance of that.
Next question: Which del Potro will show up? All I’m asking for now is
that he lose a match without retiring first, which is how he’s gone out in his
last two events. Does the big man wish he were already on a beach, away from all of his new fans and new expectations? Or does he want to make us remember he’s the
U.S. Open champ and leave one last stamp on his breakout season? Either way, I’m ready to see that monster forehand get revved up again.
Semifinalists: Federer, Murray
Group B
Rafael Nadal, Novak Djokovic, Nikolay Davydenko, Robin
Soderling
B is for beta male, right? That’s hardly the case with
Djokovic at the moment. The defending WTF champion is riding a two-tournament
win streak, one that includes wins over Federer and Nadal. Will fatigue, be it mental or physical, do him in? Djokovic himself has said that
he'll need to find some energy for one last push. But I think he’s relishing his return
to world-beating form—that vein-straining celebration in Paris, anyone?—too much to let it get away from him so easily in London. The draw is also generally favorable to Djokovic. He
outclassed Nadal last week, he’s beaten Soderling twice this fall, and he lost
a third-set tiebreaker to Davydenko in Shanghai last month. Most important,
Djokovic has played his best tennis of the season in the last two months, most of
it indoors. After last year he knows he can survive the Top 8 at this
event.
On paper, it looks grim for Nadal. He’s lost to all three of
these guys the last time he’s played them, and he’s struggled just to stay in matches with the
world’s best competition since his knee injury and his parents' divorce in the spring. When he gets down early these days, he seems to get discouraged more easily than he did in the past. At the same time,
few picked Rafa to win the Aussie Open at the start of 2009; he has
a habit of coming up with his best stuff just when you think all is lost. Still, he's never done it at this event, where he has yet to reach a final. And while
a run to the title match could give Nadal his No. 1 ranking back—how is that
possible?—his priority right now is being ready for the Davis Cup final the
following weekend.
The guy with the best draw might be the guy who
wasn’t supposed to be here, Robin Soderling. The Sod, ranked No. 9 but upgraded
when Andy Roddick pulled out, can beat Nadal, as we know; he took a 6-1 set
from Djokovic in Paris; and he has developed a bizarre hex on Davydenko over
the last three years, winning five of their last six matches. He also likes
to play indoors. Is this destined to be the Week of the Sod? Like I said, it's WTF time.
Semifinalists: Djokovic, Soderling
Semifinals: Djokovic. d. Federer; Murray d. Soderling
Final: Djokovic d. Murray Enjoy the last tournament for a couple of months. It should have more than it's share of twists and turns. The opening matches are on Tennis Channel live starting Sunday at 7:30 A.M. EST.
128 Comments
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Posted by SRao |
11/19/2009 at 11:09 AM |
1st,1st,1st,1st....i'm LOL |
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Posted by penney |
11/19/2009 at 11:13 AM |
Very safe pick |
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Posted by penney |
11/19/2009 at 11:13 AM |
I will go with Sod all the way!! |
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Posted by SRao |
11/19/2009 at 11:15 AM |
Steve,
NOT AGAIN....why don't you pls pick Federer,and make all Fedophile [like me] HAPPY? C'mon...
I'm staring at my PC,refreshing the page several times, just waiting to read your picks and you picked "someone else".How saddd.
How can you think Fed will lose to Djoko again?Pls remember Fed has a lot of pride.As a matter of fact,Fed will surely win and prove you all wrong.
Pls change you picks.My sincere request.
Anyway,I adore reading all your posts.Thanks. |
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Posted by SRao |
11/19/2009 at 11:16 AM |
Am I really 1st? for the 1st time.HUH
I'm posting from the other side of the globe...what's America doing? |
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Posted by Bhai Mirzai |
11/19/2009 at 11:17 AM |
Has Djokovic ever defended a title? |
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Posted by SRao |
11/19/2009 at 11:19 AM |
Bhai Mirzai,
That's a great point.I think it's NONE.
MA,pls reconfirm. |
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Posted by Master Ace |
11/19/2009 at 11:27 AM |
SRao,
Correct, Novak has not defended a title in his career. America is "sleep" and concentrated on American football. |
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Posted by Tennissy |
11/19/2009 at 11:28 AM |
Ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh!Nooooooooooooooo!
You've jinxed Novak.
Now if he fails to defend his title i know who to blame.Lol!!!!! |
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Posted by SwissMaestro |
11/19/2009 at 11:28 AM |
Group A
Semifinalists:
1. Murray (2-1 l. to Verdasco)
2. Federer (2-1, l. to Murray)
Group B
Semifinalists:
1. Djokovic (3-0)
2. Soderling (2-1)
Semifinals:
Murray d. Soderling 6-7, 6-3 and 6-4
Federer d. Djokovic 6-4, 5-7 and 6-3
Final:
Murray d. Federer 4-6, 7-6(3) and 6-3 |
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Posted by 123 |
11/19/2009 at 11:30 AM |
from this analysis looks like the groups are consisted of 3 players in each :-)
not even a mention of Verdasco in the Group A. I understand he's injured and not the threat to Fed, but still he's a part of the group :-)
not even considering Davydenko to be a threat, barely mentioned... |
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Posted by Bhai Mirzai |
11/19/2009 at 11:30 AM |
History is not a perfect predictor for the future though. I was saying that Djokovic had never won back to back titles and hence was downplaying his chances at Bercy. But I was proven wrong.
But I still think that 3 in a row for Djokovic, AND defeding his title is going to be a tall order.
My prediction from my heart: Federer
But my gut feeling is: Someone else ... as Federer does not seem to have the ability to up his level at will as needed. |
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Posted by MK |
11/19/2009 at 11:31 AM |
Del Potro to cream all three in his group. The Fed to cream Verdasco. Murray to beat the Fed, just. Verdasco to beat Murray, just. Fed and Del Potro through.
Djoko to cream Nadal and Soderling. Soderling to cream Nadal and Davydenko. Nadal to cream Davydenko. Davydenko to beat Djoko, just. Djoko and Soderling through.
Fed loses to Djoko in one semi.
Soderling loses to Del Potro in other semi.
Del Potro takes final.
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Posted by Master Ace |
11/19/2009 at 11:32 AM |
SRao,
Your fellow Roger fans will be glad that Steve picked Novak to win as Steve is in a "slump" at the moment. |
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Posted by Alexis |
11/19/2009 at 11:33 AM |
I never made predictions because they are just guesses, and no one really knows - especially with this bunch. Any of these guys can beat the other one on a good day. All these matches will come down to form-on-the-day. And at this point, I have no idea who will have the best form. I hope my favs win but I have absolutely no idea whether they will or not. |
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Posted by Bhai Mirzai |
11/19/2009 at 11:37 AM |
JMDP is probably emotionally drained ... he is not playing at the same level that he had built up earlier this year. So, based on that, I do not expect him to come through his half.
As far as Federer ... If his serve clicks throughout the tournamet, he will win it. But if his serve goes, then the forehand will follow it and he will struggle. His serve and forehand seem to be tied together. |
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Posted by SRao |
11/19/2009 at 11:37 AM |
MA,
glad to hear that.
You said Pete might have picked Murray[where is that Podcast?]
Steve picks Novak
what about that bunch on ESPN?
And that Jon L Weirthem??
Is anyone fond of Fed at all?
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Posted by Bibi |
11/19/2009 at 11:39 AM |
Looking good there Novak. That is a winning picture. |
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Posted by SRao |
11/19/2009 at 11:41 AM |
Bhai Mirzai,
very correct,Fed just needs 2things-His kicka** serve and brutal FH.
MA,
who's your pick?
I'm glad you said American Football.SOCCER is alien,after all :-))) |
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Posted by Master Ace |
11/19/2009 at 11:59 AM |
Bhai Mirzai,
Have to agree on Juan Martin being emotionally drained since his USO win and all of the off court obligations that was done in his honor which I believe affected his training schedule.
SRao,
Pete's Podcast for London is not up yet as Pete will pick his winner. Have not seen any predictions from other places yet. |
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Posted by SRao |
11/19/2009 at 12:06 PM |
MA,
Reading through Pete's post, I think he just WANTS Murray to WIN.Period.More than Murray himself.Today's post confirms just that.He starts and ends with the biggest "pretender" of all-Andy Murray. |
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Posted by James |
11/19/2009 at 12:12 PM |
I don't see any word about Nadal here, hope to see the trophy on his hand |
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Posted by Lynne (Rafalite) |
11/19/2009 at 12:16 PM |
Steve, this could be a 1st for you. But I don't know and I don't do predictions as I just have hopes, lol! Sometimes, just for miracles. |
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Posted by Shravan |
11/19/2009 at 12:17 PM |
You are just sooooo wrong Steve. I can say without a doubt that Federer will win the final regardless of anything. Federer and Murray from Group A. Djokovic and Soderling from Group B. I agree with those. I just don't agree from there on out. I believe we're going to have a Fed joke final or a fed Murray final. Either way, Federer will win! You watch and see. hahaha |
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Posted by mogdesai |
11/19/2009 at 12:17 PM |
Hi Steve
very well described the status of all players. i think the same way. I don't think anyone is sure to pick the winners.
My pick in group A: Federer and Murray to semi.
And group B: Djokovic and any one of the three.
Federer will show up and beat Murray and Djoko will come through.
Final Federer will beat Djoko.
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