My list is either buy or sell (hold is not applicable)

WTA Top 10
Caroline - Buy
Vera - Buy
Kim - Buy
Serena - Sell until she returns to the tour
Venus - Buy
Samantha - Sell
Francesca - Sell
Jelena - Sell
Victoria - Buy
Na - Sell

WTA Slam Winners not in Top 10
Justine - Buy
Maria - Sell
Svetlana - Sell
Ana - Buy

ATP
Nadal - Buy
Federer - Buy
Djokovic - Buy
Murray - Buy
Soderling - Sell
Berdych - Sell
Ferrer - Sell
Roddick - Buy
Verdasco - Sell
Youzhny - Sell

You'd buy Caroline and Vera at #1 and #2? No matter how good they are, won't those investments never pay off unless Caro improves (holds ranking and wins slam(s)) and Vera goes to #1?

Seems like it'd be difficult for those things to happen simultaneously... one or both of those has to be bad buys IMO.

The players that were regulars on the Juniors Circuit in 08 are all worth noting including Dimitrov and Harrison. When Dimitrov is on the same level as anyone it's hard to see him losing. He was crushing the competition when he was playing against a strong juniors group and since he's at the same level as the challengers circuit, he's winning those. He needs to adapt to his level and he can be as good as anyone in that range.

Harrison and Tomic (both 08 regulars) play above themselves at times. Harrison with Ljubicic and Tomic with Cilic, they both have flashes of being as strong as the top 10 but they aren't consistent enough. Give them time though, maybe one day they'll be at Dimitrov's level but for now Dimitrov looks better then any junior from that class.

Others to note from 08
Yuki Bhambri
Filip Krajinovic (beat Djoko!)
Tsung-Hua Yang
Jerzy Janowicz

I can see all of them breaking into the top 200 by the end of the year with the right results and possibly Harrison and Tomic breaking into the top 125

Top 8 ordered slam picks for 2011:

Aus Men
Nadal
Federer
Djokovic
Murray
Soderling
Del Potro
Tsonga
Roddick

Aus Women
Clijsters
Henin
Wozniacki
VWilliams
Sharapova
Azarenka
Zvonareva
Ivanovic

Fre Men
Nadal
Federer
Soderling
Djokovic
Del Potro
Murray
Tsonga
Monfils

Fre Women
Henin
Clijsters
SWilliams
Stosur
Schiavone
Wozniacki
Ivanovic
Jankovic

Wim Men
Nadal
Federer
Murray
Djokovic
Roddick
Soderling
Tsonga
Berdych

Wim Women
SWilliams
VWilliams
Clijsters
Henin
Wozniacki
Sharapova
Zvonareva
Azarenka

US Men
Federer
Nadal
Del Potro
Djokovic
Murray
Soderling
Roddick
Tsonga

US Women
Clijsters
SWilliams
Henin
VWilliams
Wozniacki
Azarenka
Sharapova
Stosur

2011 yearend top 10 projections:

Men
Nadal
Federer
Djokovic
Del Potro
Murray
Soderling
Tsonga
Roddick
Verdasco
Berdych

Women
Clijsters
SWilliams
Wozniacki
Henin
VWilliams
Azarenka
Sharapova
Stosur
Zvonareva
Ivanovic

Steve,

I find the topic of whether young talents are gonna make it to the Top 10, a fascinating one. Nice choice!! Something you can discuss at length and dissect in so many ways.
One thing i can say with a good deal of certainty is that there is no definitive answer. So many kids end up making it from a different range of backgrounds, coaching techniques, parental guidance etc etc...
The greats are easy to pick at a young age..Federer, Agassi, Sampras, Nadal, Djokovic, Murray etc...but for me there's no skill in that. I've always admired people who can pick the "nuggets"... and there aren't too many of those.
Enjoy Kamakshi's and your articles. RK

ATP out of top ten:

Baghdatis: buy, he has finally lost that weight and I now believe that he can make a couple quarters at the majors this year without dying in the 5th set

American tennis: neither buy or sell, it is going to stay where its at. Im not trying to be a downer, but isner, querry, fish and all of the lowered rank players are going to stay at about the exact same ranking they are at right now, they are not going to rise or decline(but I am extremely interested to see what Blake will do; is he going to quit or try to end on some type of a good note).

Spanish tennis: hold, it will continue to dominate as in the past years

French tennis: buy, I really feel like Tsonga, Monfils, Llodra, or Gasquet can final make a semi at a grand slam. More likely Monfils/Tsonga if they arent injuried. I dont have as much hope for Gilles Simon tho.

Buy:Federer

Sell:everyone else

Don't be shocked if Federer wins 3 slams again.

Rob Koenig @4.40pm,

Assuming you are the Robbie Koening whose voice we're familiar with, nice to see you here. Perhaps you can share your thoughts from time to time.

Speaking of nuggets, Gulbis is a talent that several of us are waiting on. Has the game, needs a "Murray" courtcraft gene. Would be a pity if he makes us wait for ever.

Doesn't this seem like a great idea for a fantasy tennis game similar to that of football and basketball? Everybody picks a certain number of players, and you get point values for how much their rankings rise. Everyone would start out with a certain amount of money, and how much a player costs depends on his demand. This could be "stock" style (any number of people can be a certain player) or auction style (only one person in each league can own each player). Also, scoring would have to be exponential: being number one is worth so much more than being number five or ten or 20.

You are right about Caroline she impressed me more towards the end of the season, very smart(like hingis )and is getting better and better she just has to get a better forehand but the one she has is got her to number 1 so what do I know. Harrison is good he just needs experience but great talent. Robson has got to get in better shape but has a great serve for a 16 year old so give her some time.

For WTA:

Rankings Market:
1 Caro-hold
2 Vera-sell
3 Kim-buy
4 Serena-hold
5 Venus-sell
6 Sam-hold
7 Fran-sell
8 JJ-hold
9/10 Vika-buy
others- Maria-buy, Ana-buy, Justin-hold, Melanie-buy.

Justin and Maria should finish in top 10, Fran may fall out of top 20, Ana should move up into top 12, the others in top ten will move only 1-2 spots up/down or stay same. Melanie at 61 should raise 15-30 spots by year end.

WTA Major Market:

Serena- hold
Fran - sell
Kim - buy

I feel Kim will win 2 and Serena 2. Others will have good runs, but none will succeed in taking a major this year unless Serena has injured herself out of contender status. Justin, Caro, and Vika may take Serena's 2 if she can't come back, with Kim maybe winning 3.

"The Williamses—there seems to be a feeling this is the last stand, but we’ve said that so many times before I’ve given up predicting."

This makes no sense whatsoever. Why do people STUPIDLY continue to try to push them out the door, place an expiration date on their abilities, and write them off? Last stand my behind, such a ridiculous statement; tennis writers and other "experts" have been saying they were done since like '04 or '05, like the moron Pat Cash's statements about Serena never winning a major again. Give it a rest already, you will never know.

Once again I'm rather bored by your assessment of the American welterweights--Isner and Querry. The fact is there are about 15 guys in the top 15 that are vying legitimately for a place in the bottom half of the top 10 and Querry and Isner are NOT a part of that. Isner is a player who relies so much on his height and serve and is so quickly overwhelmed by an all around player--this will prevent him from going any higher than low 20s late teens. Querry will show consistency only in the form of 250s. Where is any consistency above that? How could you contend for real masters and slams when all you can win is 250s?

It's not shameful to be ranked 19, it is however quite annoying that American commentators create false buzz around players that really have little potential to contend for the top.

As for the women. Do you guys follow women's tennis it all? Why is anyone still claiming Sharapova is a buy? A legitimate threat? She has 0 consistency. Why would you think she was poised for a resurgence this year? She has shown nothing to prove it and continues to show nothing.
If you had watched the last half of the women's year you would know that Ivanovic actually has been building momentum, ending in a great fall season.
Henin does need to go back to pre-retirement title and be okay with winning RG--why not add another clay slam while going for Wimbledon?

Master Ace - Your contributions are invaluable, but I wouldn't pick you as my stock advisor! You seem to like to buy high, all those expensive stocks! Only buy if they will do better then their current price....

Men:
Rafa: Sell (only because 3 slams is a lot to match)
Federer: Hold
Djokovic: Buy Now!!!
Murray: Hold
Soderling: Sell
Berdych - Sell
Ferrer - Sell
Roddick - Hold
Verdasco - Hold
Youzhny - Sell
Other: Monfils - Buy. Querry - Buy, Del Potro - Buy, Gulbis - Buy

Women:
Wozniacki - Hold
Zvonereva - Sell
Kim Cjisters- Buy Now!!!!
Serena - Hold
Venus - Buy
Stosur - Sell (kills me to say this)
Schiavone - Sell
Jankovic - Sell
Azarenka - Buy
Na - Sell

Other: Ivanovic-Buy, Henin - Buy, Kuz - Buy, Sharapova - Buy.

MikeDC,
I like to either buy or sell. Hold was not an potion when I made my choices but most of the time these days in the ATP, the bottom 6 are in and out while the top 4 has been steady.

First thing I'd like to say is, a lot of people here are complete morons. Del Potro was just injured for a very long time; he is not going to return to the top 5 or win a slam THIS YEAR. I love Delpo and yes he is amazing, but that's just unrealistic. Second, Murray will never win a slam. If he does tennis would have just devolved to the game of the 1920's. He does not have the game for slams. He is always losing to big hitting, agressive players who know 5 sets gives them timeto find their rythm. Unless he goes on a huge roll he won't win one. That being said he will still do very well at masters, 5oos and 250s for a while (until everone figures out his passive-pro-pushing gamestyle). Djoker finally has confidence in his aggressive game again. He was being much to defensive before and it killed me (and him). Berdych is streaky but always plays well at the AO. Verdasco is the type of guy who can beat anybody, anywhere (excluding grass tournaments) and occassionaly lose to anybody, anywhere. Also, here are some U20 talented rising young players (which means no Bernard Tomic and the like): Ricardas Berankis(Ltu)-very smart player, huge winning streak last yr in challengers; Milos Raonic (Can)-big serve and a big game. Did well at the end of last yr in both challengers and ATP tour; Jason Kubler (Aus)- very talnted, but still too young to know. We'll see how it goes for him; Guillaume Rufin (Fra)-young, talented frenchman...need I say more?; Tiago Fernandes (Bra) - '09 Jr AO champ Excellent junior; could develop into a fantastic player; Sean Berman (Aus)- AO '09 Jr RUP. Another excellent player, he works hard and expext him to do good things; Grigor Dimittrov (Bul)- The fastest rising of the bunch and already an excellent player who has proven he can hang with the top dogs. Only 19, he's ranked 108. Expect hinm to crack the top 60 and shake things up a bit. A few more: Jack Sock (USA)- Jr Ornage bowl and jr Us Open champ. Improved a lot in a short period of time. Tough as nails on the court. Mathias Bourge (Fra)- You may not have heard of him-yet. He seems like a guy who could do well on the ATP.

selling serena is a dumb investment strategy.

selling rafa might seem dumb as well. but think about it. if you are a die-hard rafa fan or not, do you really believe that he can maintain or exceed what he did last year? 3 slams in one yr? yes fed did it twice/thrice, but fed is very comfortable on all surfaces. nadal not so much. however, i could see rafa ending the yr as no. 1 and winning at least 5 titles in 2011 and 2 slams.

as others stated, caro & vera have alot of points to defend and it seems unlikely they can successfully defend them all. plus vera has mental fragility issues and i just can't see caro winning a slam in 2011 at least. she is 0-9 against the williams & the belgians. if she makes it deep in a gs draw she has to hope that somebody else take those 4 ladies out. (and hope whoever does that don't take her out!!). she lacks a weapon to earn cheap points a la serena's serve, henin's bh & ana's fh. so caro & vera: sell.

belgians, williams: hold

caro, vera: sell

maria: sell (if you were risky enough to hold her in the first place 'til now)

ana: buy (but don't expect a gs win/final; expect maybe a top 10 finish)

big 4: hold (but strongly consider selling murray & nadal)

sod: strongly consider selling.

delpotro: u should have already sold him already but if not sell now! he has hugh value right now that will most likey drop once he underperforms (ie. don't win a slam or make top 5 by end of yr).

hold roddick, sell other atp americans.

hold big 2 & serena. sell everything else.

WTA Tour Ranking Points Market

Wozniacki (8035 points): Hold-Buy. Caroline has no serious points to defend until Indian Wells, and very little clay court points because of last years injury. Expect/hope to sell at around 9500 after Wimbledon.

Zvonareva (6785): Hold-Buy. No real points to defend in first half of the year. Expect to sell at 8000 before Wimbledon.

Clijsters (6635): Buy. Few points to defend until Miami. Could go as high as 10000 in 2011, if she plays a full season.

Serena (5355): Sell. Will likely drop to 2000 before she's back on court. Buy if/when back to full fitness.

Venus (4985): Sell. Plenty of point to defend in first half of the year. Consider buying at 4000 before Wimbledon.

Henin (3415): Hold. Lots of points to defend in first half of the year. Buy at the start of the clay season, if she is free of injury.

Ivanovic (2600): Buy. May reach 5000 in 2011.

M.J. they try to push them out the door prematurely because America has such great player waiting in the wing to assume their role. Coco, Oudin and Mattex Sands. Right!!!

Forgot to include something in my post as usual. M.J., you're right on target. After Oudin had her great run at the Open, there was an article which suggested that it was time for Serena and Venus to pass the torch to the next generation of American, because they lost the Open that year it was over, forget the fact that Serena was holding two slams and had won the YEC that year, it was still time for her to pass the torch to a player who lost 12 first round loses, 5 second round in 2010, which mean that she lost 90% of her match by the second round, that was someone Serena, the greatest player of her era should step aside for. Good luck American tennis with that. Kom sa, Caro!!!

Another thing Caro is no l and people need to respect it, like Caro said, she earned it and you don't get it by luck. You know anybody handing out no l rankings??

Samantha Elin,
"M.J. they try to push them out the door prematurely because America has such great player waiting in the wing to assume their role. Coco, Oudin and Mattex Sands."

ROTFLMAO! Don't forget that Capra girl who made it to the 3rd round last year, whom they were boosting up until she was destroyed by Sharapova love & love. I remember in '09 how they started comparing Oudin's run at the time to Serena's in '99, and I was like, um, I don't think so, unless she wins this title, which isn't going to happen.

I think Roddick is a buy right now, as he could rise two or three ranking spots by the end of the Wimbledon fortnight. He's coming back strong and eager to make one last statement (note his early commitment to Davis Cup), so I think he may do big things in Australia and in the spring U.S. hard-court swing. I'd hold him through the European clay courts and Roland Garros, expecting him to peak during the grass-coourt swing, but I'd sell him shortly after the U.S. Open.

Federer, Nadal and Djokovic are all holds for me -- nowhere really to go.

I expect Murray to do well on the slow Australian hard courts and throughout the spring U.S. hard-court swing, but he's disappointed so often in the past that I'm tempted to sell.

I think Berdych is a buy, as is Soderling, but it's a long-term investment that won't reap big dividends until Federer calls it quits and Nadal burns himself out.

I'm selling Verdasco and Gasquet immediately, holding Davydenko and watching him carefully. If he doesn't show improvement by the end of the spring U.S. hard-court swing, I'd be inclined to sell. A wrist injury is a difficult thing to come back strong from, and may take quite some time. Ask Del Potro, or Lindsay Davenport.

I'd buy Monfils, and expect him to break through to the top eight by the culmination of Roland Garros. Tsonga I'll hold because I like him (favoring heart over head). Will probably regret it -- either kicking myself for not going all in and buying or for not selling when the writing was on the wall.

I'm buying Querrey, Isner and Fish. I sense a U.S. resurgence, though it may not last loong with Roddick and Fish's retirement looming on the norizon. I think Isner is a safe bet, but Querrey may disappoint. Still I think his upsides outweigh his downsides -- for now.

Del Potro is the big question mark in my portfolio. But I'm going to buy. There's really nowhere he can go but up, except in the rankings.

Odesnik is a sure buy, if he can keep his nose out of trouble. He's starting from the bottom and will surely run through a few hundred ranking points in a matter of months.

Stepanek is a sell, along with Youzhny and Ferrer and Ferrero. I'm going to buy Lopez, banking on him giving it one last good shot through Wimbledon and maybe the fall indoor season. By the end of 2011, if he hasn't risen five spots in the rankings, I'm selling him off.

Nalbandian's my other big question mark. Like Murray, I'm always tempted to buy buy buy, but he invariably disappoints in the end. I'll hold for now, but look for him to have another great fall campaign indoors, then call it quits.

Baghdatis is a buy for me in the short-term. I'll sell him after the spring U.S. hard-court swing.

I'm not willing to bet on ANY of the women. Except Ivanovic, whom I think is ready to get it together and make a bold move up the rankings.

I'd like to buy Clijsters, but am getting awfully tired of her retirement talk... again. First she says this may be her last full year on tour, her final campaign. Then she comes out and says she may be around for four more years. She's too ditzy for my money. Great athlete, nowhere to go but down. I'm selling after Roland Garros.

Steve-- Spot on about McEnroe's serve. The most beautiful shot in tennis and also the most recognizable. Long after his decline had set in, I still loved watching McEnroe play just to watch the serve (well, the volleys were pretty things too, as was that FH topspin lob...).

niko 6 and 4 life time over nadal winning last 4, plus hes 4 or 5 years older.....does this mean niko better? no i just think nadal,s getting to used to the juice he needs better s h i t...naderlone getting old. body getting to used to it, so id buy new s h it, for 2011....lol. buy delpo for second half of season, murry will win a slam,this year,so buy. ps,there coming to test u nadal, be careful...........oil that machine you machine, borg destroy,s nadal, without juice?? battle of two machines.....only on wii

Samantha says, "Another thing Caro is no l and people need to respect it, like Caro said, she earned it and you don't get it by luck. You know anybody handing out no l rankings??"

Quick query: Is that how you felt about Dinara Safina and Jelena Jankovic when they ascended to the top?

as for the men:
1. Rafael Nadal: hold. will stay #1, will win one or two majors. Scheduling appears to be a problem - lack of enough rest during off season, added Barcelona to clay season without subtracting another clay court tournament, was nothing learned from 2008?!?! Unless Rafa pulls out of one of his scheduled tournaments b/w March and June, he will be subpar after Wimbledon again. Team needs to confer with Roger about schedule. Perhaps in a win-win the tennis buddies can share private jet expenses.
2. Roger Federer: sell off 25%. The dodger will stay in the top 4, but me thinks it'll be #3 or #4.
3. Novak Djokovic: hold. ends year in top 4.
4. Andy Murray: buy with the proceeds from the Roger sale. Andy breaks thru in a major for Scotland.
5. Robin Soderling: sell 25%. will end year in top 10, below #5.
6. Tomas Berdych: sell. has the game to be top 5, but probably won't happen this year. almost wiped out Roger at the AO a couple of years ago.
7. David Ferrer: sell. kudos to Ferrer for a great career.
8. Andy Roddick: hold. props for staying power. needs to clean up on court attitude toward those lower ranked while in the heat of competition.
9. Fernando Verdasco: sell. as others have said, can beat anyone on a given day, can lose to anyone on a given day. nice ride in the top 10.
10.Mikhail Youzhny: sell. the warrior has peaked.
Gael Monfils: buy now. sell after the French Open (per previous poster).
Nicolas Almagro: a cautious buy.
Mardy Fish: sell. great career year in 2010.
Ivan Ljubicic: sell. on the downside of an amazing ride.
Sam Querrey: buy. i see top ten.
John Isner: hold.
Nikolay Davydenko: a value buy, should have bought before yesterday.
Michael Llodra: sell. nice ride in 2010.
Ernests Gulbis: buy.
David Nalbandian: buy. top ten again unless injuries doom daveed once more.
Juan Carlos Ferrero: sell. one of the great guys who was done in by illness at his peak and the revolution in string/racket technology.
Richard Gasquet: limit to 1% of your portfolio - your mad mad mad money.
Philipp Kohlschreiber: buy.
Jarkko Nieminen: buy.
Gilles Simon: value buy. just because. one for the little guys (like me).
Lleyton Hewitt: buy and hope for better draws at the majors.
Radek Stepanek: value buy. one run at the majors and he's in the top 20 again.
Fernando Gonzalez: buy. pure bargain hunting.
Ivo Karlovic: buy. ditto Gonzo.
Paul-Henri Mathieu & Kei Nishikori: obvious deep value buys.

latest wta results:

Brisbane:

Singles - Semifinals
Andrea Petkovic (GER) d. (4) Marion Bartoli (FRA) 64 62
Petra Kvitova (CZE) d. (5) Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova (RUS) 64 46 62

Hobart:

Singles - Final
Greta Arn (HUN) d. (2) Yanina Wickmayer (BEL) 63 63

WTA tour continues where 2010 left off... none of the second tier players i.e. anyone other than serena and kim has performed...

this is like the equity market right after lehman...

WTA is free falling...

maintain SELL...

SELL
SELL
SELL

wta is too erratic to make any predictions. there is only one player you can count on (at least at the majors)----serena. so hold/buy her.

Ok, so Tom Perrotta is among the groups of idiots (that Samantha Elin and I discussed earlier) that is going for the traditional write-the-Williamses off prediction this year. Genius says that no one named Williams will win a major, BUT in the same group of predictions, declares that both Sharapova (who just lost to an old veteran) and Wozniacki will each win a major... Also, Henin is going to win Wimbledon...even though she's only been to 2 finals and never came close to winning either. I think for Henin to win Wimbledon she's going to need assistance from both Williamses (i.e. Serena being injured and Venus leaving her game at home in one of the final rounds)

yeah i read that piece MJ. I was like really?

Inconsistent and unforced-error-prone Maria is gonna win a major?

Weapon-less Caro has a chance but a very small one.

Henin has the game to win Wimby but she always fall short like how Venus always fall short at AO and USO.

Maria just lost in two easy sets to a 31 year old veteran who is ranked 88 in the world and she is going to win a major without her serve?? Well OK.

BTW, Sharapova was Arn's first win against a top 20 player.

Dimitrov has good strokes - so does Heather Watson; though both's games resemble those of Federer and Serena Williams, Dimitrov doesn't have the tricks and is slightly more workmanlike, and Watson is not Serena Williams, who burst onto the tennis scene with a game to dominate the WTA. Maybe Dimitrov will do something big on tour - even if he wins one slam it will be a big deal given the competition on tour.

Fish has become the U.S. #2 - so I hope he meets the responsability of the job.

if Sharapova wins a major this year, The Matrix must really exist.

i wish we could sell tennis world or twibe people

M.J. says Henin didn't come close to winning either Wimbledon final. How about a three-set loss to Venus in 2001, although the 3rd set was a bagel. The 2006 against Amelie Mauresmo? Three setter, perhaps one of the best played Wimbledon finals in a couple of decades? Two games away from winning W? Don't let the facts get in the way of your perception.

So just because Grigor Dmitrov and Richard Gasquet have one handed backhands, they are Federer copycats? does not make any sense to me..

barry, you just proved my point on the first final. She lost the first set and was bageled in the 3rd against Venus in '01, MEANING she was never close to winning that match. As for the '06 final, 2 games away is not the same as being up 5-something with a chance to serve it out, or having a match points on your opponents serve. So in my eyes, you have to have made it to a winning position where you can finish off a match for me to say "so and so almost won" versus they "could've won." Winning a set does not by default mean you came close to winning.

i would love for henin and serena to dominate at the slams this yr

The blog and comments are very interesting