Interesting. You may well be right (this time).

yeah RAFA!!!!!

"testy"? How so?

there is no explenation or whatsoever in this preview for Federer losing. He just loses.

I agree though that having to face the Big Iz first round, after a long laugh off is probably the worst of all possible pics for Fed. Bleah. If I was him, I would be testy about that.

You do like to take your life in your hands with these bracketology posts, Steve. Best of luck to you.

Slacker showdown LOL! I'm looking forward to that =)

I like the photo though!

If Nadal happens to beat Wawrinka (which I think he will) he will still have it veeeeeeeery tough making it to the final since he could be facing Davydenko and Murray one after the other and even more so since he's played a lot lately but ok, I think for Steve Nadal winning is just a given...

Both Nadal and Soderling are looking overtennised to me, so I see Davydenko,Murray and Federer, Djokovic in the semis.

Me likey! Just wish Gael was a bit more reliable! Hope you've got it in one Steve.

Steve: Latest news is that Fish has pulled out of Shanghai because of an ankle injury. So he's no longer in contention.

BTW, what do mean that Roger was testy? That word is used a lot in the media to describe Roger. Hopefully you will expand on that in the podcast.

Steve: I'm surprised you didn't know that Youzhny is on the top ten. That was his reward for reaching the USO SF. But I guess you only on focus on what happening at the first half of the top ten.

Nadal Vs Federer Final!! With Nadal inching ahead in the HC head 2 head

I somehow see a Murray vs Federer final.

Federer d. Murray 7-6(5), 5-7 and 6-3

I don't think Rafa will make to finals this year for the mere fact that he's played a lot of tennis in the last two weeks. I agree that Stan W has a good chance to cause an upset but I believe Rafa will win that match in 3 sets.

Shanghai may have a roof but it's primarily an outdoor event so Soderling (who hasn't been playing that well in the last few weeks) isn't going to make it to the finals.

SF: Youzhny d. Nadal
Federer d. Djokovic

F: Federer d. Djokovic

That should be:

F: Federer d. Youzhny

wilson75, your F is not possible with your SF. may be you mean Federer d. Youzhny in Final. I would like that result too.

Wow, if Fish did pull out of Shanghai, then lady luck is AGAIN on Nadal's side.

I think Nadal will lose, he is very tired.

Miles,
what are you trying to say that Nadal is lucky when Fish pulled out ?
So, when has Fish been a threat to Nadal ? Pls explain. I don't think he would have passed by Golubev if did not withdraw anyway.

this is just a prediction...but an incredible one though..we'll see

ah,Tignor:Your prediction used to be Federer losing at SEMI,now you have him losing at QF.By next year,put him down for first round loss.

and steve, soderling's gonna beat roger? oh come on....

Rafa's a 24 year old professional athlete in the prime of his life who hasn't played any harder in the last two weeks than he usually practices. I just don't understand all these people saying he's tired. He'll be fine, and he'll make it deep into the tournament.

yes jackson, he is tired ..and the knees...hehe

Nadal and Soderling both look very tired.. its a tricky draw

Time for my inner cynic to appear. This is the perfect time for Nadal to lose. Here's why:

1) He's earned more points in Asia now (Bangkok SF, Tokyo W) than he did in making the Shanghai final last year.

2) He's played a lot more tennis of late than his knees, physio and long term fans would like (Rafa hasn't played more than 2 weeks in a row this year until now).

3) He's seeded the fact that he's tired to the press in advance of the tournament so the loss would be no surprise.

4) There's nothing to be gained by facing and potentially losing to Federer or Djokovic in a non-major. (See: Canada, Cincy)

Need I go on?

Oh, I also think the Tsonga prediction is bold/crazy.

Like we've all said about fall ball in these parts, the winner will be a player who needs it. Who's been a disappointing streak, wants to buck up his bank account or ranking or confidence going into the end of the year. Not looking at the bracket, but bet on: Soderling, Federer, Roddick or Djokovic.

SF: Nadal vs Murray and Federer vs Roddick
F: Nadal vs Federer
W: Federer to collect his 18th Masters Shield kicking off his playing 4 tournaments in 5 weeks

let us commend steve for his prediction..anyway he is ALWAYS wrong...hehe:)

SF : Nadal vs Murray & Federer vs Djoko
F : Nadal vs Djoker
W : Nadal

I actually wish Steve wouldn't make these predictions because they almost never come true. And if that holds true to form then that means Rafa won't win this.

Having said that, I would LOVE to see a Rafa/Roger final. But we have to see how both men are. Like Steve said, will Roger come out refreshed and ready to rumble, or will be be just rusty enough that a dangerous player will take him out early?

These 1000 series are so tough right from the get-go. You don't have time to work your way into the draw.

And on the other side, is Rafa still hungry and feeling great? He says he's feeling, "okay," mentally and physically so that says something.

We may not see either man in the final though because there are a lot of hungry guys out there trying to qualify for London and they will be throwing the kitchen sink at Rafa, Roger, and Nole. The only three already in.

No matter what it's so nice to actually be excited about the fall season for a change!

"First round slacker showdown to watch" ... hee hee.

That match could be crazy enough to pay for !

Soderling is a bold pick considering he hasn't done anything lately either.

Federer will do everything to prevent Novak from ending the year at #2.For me this is a twomanbattle. The winner of the second sf will take the tittle home.

*Steve: I'm surprised you didn't know that Youzhny is on the top ten. That was his reward for reaching the USO SF. But I guess you only on focus on what happening at the first half of the top ten.
*

Wilson- where did Steve say he didn't know that Youzhny was in the top ten? I think he ws jut saying it can be a surprise to see Misha at his ranking when looking at the draw . It is a pleasant surprise for me- as a fan. I am aware he is at the ranking- but it is still a nice little "oh yes- he does have that ranking" when I see his seeds nowadays.

I don't know- it seems like sometimes folks are too quick to call for Steve's blood and ready to insult him as being willfully ignorant- when he is just trying to make some predictions

It will be interesting for me to see Ferru and Nando in this tournament- I think Ferru really wants to get to TMF and is currently number nine in the points tally while Nando is number eight.

Fwiw- I think Nole or Federer will win the title. I would be pleasantly surprised if Rafa won it but not shocked.

"I know he made the semis of the Open, but I’m surprised to see him at the bottom of this quarter listed as the tournament's 8th seed."

Carrie: As Steve stated above, clearly he hasn't been paying attention to rankings since the USO. If he was, he wouldn't be surprised to see Youzhny as the 8th seed.

BTW, I wasn't calling for his blood or insulting him. I happened to like Steve's work even if sometimes I don't agree with his picks. I don't know if your job is writing about tennis on a daily basis, at least you should know who's in the top ten.

HI Steve, do you guys accept guest posts for your blog? I would be happy to help contribute information and news to the community.

Please let me know.
-Eric

Nadal winning is a given these days. The guy bugs me just like he does everyone else, but he is playing the best tennis of his life and seems unstopable. He also seems to have his OCD and ticks a little bit more in control.

Wilson75,
all that carrie and steve were implying was that Youzhny is a new top 10er
as such that comment. It's a new territory for him. I got it. Carrie got it. Hope you do as well.

Wow Steve I believe your crystal ball is a little hazy. Tsonga???,
Soderling??? Really?? Although your predictions are not usually
terribly accurate this is really going out on a ledge.

I say Wawrinka upends Rafa in his first match. Roddick may be another 1st round casualty. I also don't know what to say about Cilic. If tennis had championship bouts, without having to win a few in a row, perhaps he could be a champion.

lightforce: It's not new territory for Youzhny. He actually in the top ten in 2008. He has matched his career high this year.

I don't think Rafa will be going all out for this tourney... remember Rafa now has bigger fish to fry.

However, if he reaches the Final vs Roger I will put money on the World Champion and undisputed #1 HC, Clay and Grass player to win yet again vs his main rival.

My final prediction: Stan vs Novak

wilson75: i'm aware that youzhny has done well lately; like i said, it still surprised me to see him as the second-highest seed in a section of a masters draw. would you not allow me to be surprised by something? (don't answer that)

fed testy in a good way: motivated, not content with his current status, with something to prove, etc. kind of like the photo.

usc: i'd say nadal will go all out for this tournament; has he ever not gone all out for a masters event? fans of certain players don't need to give pre-tournament excuses for their guys. if he loses, he loses

and why, i'll wonder out loud again, would anyone possibly be bothered by who i pick?

I don't see Nadal winning this. I think he's kind of coasting right now and fulfilling his obligations, but he doesn't have his laser-like focus on these events like he had at the US Open. If he wins he's happy, if he loses he's still had the best season of his career and will just move on to the next stop. Federer on the other hand is probably looking to get the bad taste out of his mouth from the US Open and as such I am picking him to win.

steve, why are we bothered with your picks? because you are"supposed" to be an educated blogger..that is why.. we have high expectations...

I doubt if Tsonga and Soderling will make the semi-final here. Tignor, your predictions here are fishy, as always. I am ready to eat humble fish pie though if you are right. But you are likely to be wrong, again.

Steve: Thanks for the explanation, it's much appreciated. I do enjoy reading your articles and always look forward to your picks even though I rarely agree with them. We'll see if your wrong again on Sunday :)

That should be "you're" not "your". The older I get the worse my spelling gets.

Hehehe, when Steve Tignor chooses Nadal as winner it's funny how fast his "antis" come to the board.
Well guys, maybe he's right even that I keep thinking Nadal's goal is London, same before USO (Montreal and Cinncy) he didn't play so great

To the other Steve
"If he loses, he loses" yeah, but this year you don't know yet who loses, isn't?

Roger is true class. Love Roger

It does not matter if Roger wins.....just to see him play! Cannot wait!

For some reason, I believe Isner MAY be induced to tank, just like Istomin at Cinny, in the first match with Roger ... by roger's handlers. So much money is on the line for his return. If he loses in his opening round, I can almost guarantee you, those endorsement dollars will DRY Up as quick as the Sahara Desert.

Nadal has no incentive to win or even participate in this event. He is assured of year end No. 1 with over 5,000 ranking points ahead of Roger. Who cares if Roger improves his ranking to 4,000 point difference, it is not going to matter at all. Nadal may just concentrate on the WTF, to shut up all FED Kads.

Nonetheless, it is true the fall season has never been this exciting in a long while.

Rafa, the consecutive clay-grass-ushardcourt champion within a span of only 3.5 months, and at age 24!

Take that, fed fans!

Steve is the best tennis blogger on the net, and his predictions are always AWESOME.

Nice article here comparing Nadal and Federer in a different light.

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/475701-federer-and-nadal-or-athens-versus-sparta-domination-of-two-heavyweights

I think roger will beat Soderling easily.

A few things happening in this tournament: Roger is fighting for no. 2 with Novak - as many of you said I don't think he likes his position. And Novak has sooo many points to defend (two W - Basel and one Master's), Roger meanwhile has close to zero points from Shanghai and Paris from last year. Meaning, he needs to do really well in one of these tournaments and will take back his no. 2. My guess is that if Federer makes it through the first round (Isner being a tough customer) we'll see him in the final.
As for Rafa....If he keeps winning, it'll be phenomenal. I don't see him winning now....lot's of tennis in his legs recently. Then again, it's hard to see who can beat him in if I go through the names of his opponents...Stan has definitely a shot but he must play as audaciously as he played against Roddick.
Murray...a big question mark.
But there's also the other battle between people like Youzhny, Ferrer and Berdych for the final 8. I am quite curious who from these guys will make it. My preference is for Berdych, Youzhny and then Ferrer. After all I think of these three only Berdych has a serious chance to upset or be a threat to the big dogs in London. I know, you will tell me that Berdych is unpredictable..that is true, but he is more unpredictable when it comes to playing lower seeds..but more fun to watch when he's the underdog. Youzhny and Ferrer - both have a more compacted game...but I just can't see how they would really challenge Djokovic, Federer or Nadal in London...both these guys have predictable games and lack a punishing weapon.

always picks fed to go out to pretty much anyone, usually in the semi, IF he has him going that far, which this time he does not

Joe: 5:39 p.m.

I couldn't have set it better Joe. Geesh these people! :)

Ty: 3:24 p.m.

What on earth gave you the idea that Nadal bugs everybody? Maybe he bugs you and maybe he bugs some others, just like any player, but I'd be careful saying he bugs you like, "he bugs everybody else." I'd wager a good amount that there are far more fans of his than the opposite.

I'm not sure what Rafa has done so far to make people think he hasn't a chance. He and Nole have had a similar fall season so far. A semi in a snaller tourney and a title at a 500. So some say Nole will win but NOT Rafa?

And that for sure Roger will be in the final? What has he done so far to indicate that would be true? He hasn't played a match since the USO. Let's not count the chickens before they're hatched folks.

"Rafa hasn't played more than 2 weeks in a row this year until now"

Yes he has. RG + Queen's, 2 different surfaces, 10 matches, 28 sets.

The past 2 weeks he has played 8 matches, but just 18 sets - and 6 of those 8 matches lasted only 70-75 mins. There is no reason to think he'd be physically tired, based both on those facts and what he said. There is reason to think he is a bit tired mentally, based on certain lapses in some matches and what he said.

Anyway, I agree with Steve, Rafa will go all out, why wouldn't he, and he did in both Bangkok and Tokyo, like anyone who saw the semis in both would surely agree. Lapses of concentration did cost him in Bangkok and almost did in Tokyo (well cost there too as far as semi match time was concerned), so I hope there won't be more of that happening in Shanghai. In any case, however far trying his best will take him will be fine with me.

I agree with whoever said Nadal has not been playing any harder than he usually practises. He is at the top of his form, thin, for the sake of his knees and the most fun to watch of any tennis player since Steffi Graf. He will win Shanghi after some serious competition, become even more focused and then win London. He is a phenomonen. I am lucky to have lived long enough to watch him play. I am doing everything with my left hand and arm to send him luck. It's really fun to use your left hand and arm if you are naturally right handed. Throwing things is fantastic fun.

I think Rafa will go out not because he is physically tired but because of the mental side of it. As humble and as grounded as he is, it's got to somewhat affect him knowing he's won 7 tournaments this year including 3 GS's putting him way ahead of the field ranking wise.

I feel he tanks this one and takes the rest of the year off to nurse his knees and prepare for Australia. Then play no tournies after the 2011 US Open and hit Shanghai fresh.

Then again, he may just go the whole hog now and capture Shanghai which would arguably be the best year any male player has had.

Wow !!! This is softest cushioning Nadal's fans prepared for Rafa's fall. What's the matter with you ? Excuses are plenty: physical, mental, motivational ... C'mon guys, your fella haven't lost yet !!! Should you have a little faith ? He still has pretty good chance to go deep. Quarters or semi would be realistic.

I think Rafa has to be a bit tired, but the carrot is that after Shanghai, he doesn't play again until Paris/Bercy which is what, 3 1/2 weeks?

The danger for Nadal will be playing those dangerous players in the early rounds...but I can't see him being unable to pump himself up if he faces Murray, Federer or Djokovic in the SF's or Finals.

Apparently he's foregoing most of the European Indoor Season, unlike, say, Federer and Djokovic.

The Joker has the toughest row to hoe, as he had to defend all his points for last year AND play Serbia's Davis Cup Tie.

espnalaaldo,

take what? nadal is tired...don't dream big:)

steve,

I don't have a problem with you not picking fed, although I disagree.

However, as long as Federer is the greatest ever, it better be referred to as the Federer-Nadal rivalry. It is so disrespectful.

When Rafa gets his 29 slams, and 58th consecutive clay title, then be my guest. It just sounds so wrong, for now.

Steve Many thanks for your projection at Shanghai.

Rafa hasnt won this tournament.Maybe it has been on his "wish list" of tournaments to win.As we have seen in the past well lets say the last 2 years his form at this time of the year hasnt been his best for a few reasons.

Rafa has played 2 lead up torunaments.I as a Rafa fan questioned him on this.I felt he needed more time off after his USO win and achieving his career Grand Slam.May I say I would wish the same for any other player as well.Under the circumstances alone it was a pretty intense 2 weeks on a physical and mental note alone.

They are other players like Novak who just recently won back to back tournaments and as seemed to regained his "swagger".I would never count out Roger his record stands alone on fast hard court surfaces.If people think he is done in any way.Do that at your own peril lol!.

Mardy Fish again another player which finds this surface to his liking.

I know Rafa will always be compeitive regardless of the surface he plays and wants to do well in all the tournaments he plays in right till the end of the season.His serve again will be important as in the USO.I believe he is more "aware" of his court position especailly on a fast hard court and he won the Gold Medal in singles at the Olympics in 08.

Soderling is another who does well on this surface too.

I feel Master Series is harder to win than Slams in ways.Cause even as a higher seed you dont get to say "hide" as much as in Slams.Compeition is tough from the first round.

We Gonna See No?

An awful lot of graceless commentators here. You'd think Steve had gone around slapping their children.

Rafa Nadal is "the most fun to watch of any tennis player since Steffi Graf" ha ha ha ha. The lunacy of fandom. Love it.

Does Nadal look tired? can you imagine if he'd look fresh?

"When Rafa gets his 29 slams", who has that number?

Hmmm . . .
Well Fed's analysis seems similar to yours, Steve; he has told the Swiss press he's not sure what to expect in Shanghai since he hasn't played in so long (and lots of other players have been playing), so the first few rounds will be "dangerous." But he's quite confident of being in good form by the time Basel comes around, w/ Paris and WTF to follow.

But he does say he's been playing well in practice, so who knows, maybe we'll get to see some of that in Shanghai as well.

Cotton Jack, awful graceless commentators? yeah! starting with you LOL, don't make me laugh..........

Aussiemarg,
Fish w/d as his spot has been taken by Gimeno-Traver.

"and why, i'll wonder out loud again, would anyone possibly be bothered by who i pick?"

I thought that was the whole point of the prediction being made public. Fans like us are very passionate, and since you cannot pick all players to win, you stand to incur the wrath of some section of fans.

Not that you can really influence the result..but jinxing, antijinxing etc and so on

Well, I see it's a bit nasty over here as well. Thought it might be fun to see what's up tonight. Not much apparently. It's even worse over on Pete's Serena blog. So much lashing out at each other and name-calling.

It's these kinds of nights that just feel awful here. The regular great posters who are here tonight trying their hardest to hold good conversations have my utmost respect. And you know who you are! :) I'd stay here with you and try as well but I want to get up later to watch some tennis. See you then.

Again, at least it's relatively tame here compared to Pete's latest blog. Someone over there actually referred to Serena as a, "classless pig."

I mean seriously. That's just downright depressing.

'night all.

beng,

Why don't you climb down off your high horse and get off Steve's back! As a matter of fact, he IS an educated blogger! He is entitled to make his predictions. That's his job, remember? If you disagree, then you can give your own predictions and say why you don't agree, but leave the gratuitous insults out, please! Steve doesn't have to live up to your expectations, just his own.

I think Rafa may be a bit tired mentally, but not physically. I expect him to go all out to win. That's just how he plays. I think Wawa will be tough, but Rafa should get through, then it could be Istomin or Melzer, both capable of giving him some trouble. My feeling is that if Rafa gets through to the quarters, he will beat Davy, who has not been anywhere close to his great form last year. At that point, I believe that he has a good shot to win. I just don't know about Fed at this point. He will have a test with Isner as a first opponent. I never count him out, but I want to see what he looks like. Nole will definitely be a contender. He is playing well again and seems to have gotten his act together.

I look forward to some great matches and seeing all of the top players in action!

Master Ace Thanks for that info regarding Mardy Fish

Ill temper everywhere.

My predictions -

Q1: Nadal d Davydenko in 2
Q2: Murray d Youzh in 2
Q3: Fed d Soderling in 3
Q4: Djokovic d Roddick in 3

SF1: Murray d Nadal in 3
SF2: Fed d Djokovic in 3

Final: Fed d Murray in 2 (One tight and one easy set).

Champion: Roger Federer

Steve - as always an avid reader of the column and your draw analysis. Curious why you think a testy Fed won't make the semi's..just wondering? Thanks!

Great! Thanks, Steve.
Now I KNOW WHO IS NOT GOING TO WIN!!

The history proves that ONE of your projected s/f will be correct pick.
I have find out who. Following the history of your picks, it is not going to be Nadal,...

Steve's record of predicting winners is as dismal as other so-called tennis experts, or any reticent pro-roger commentators like Jensen, like Mary Carillo, like Fowler, like that decidedly oh my, Engberg, and other writers for ESPN and Tennis.com

Remember only MJ Fernandez and that skating writer pick Nadal to win USOpen. All others suckd.

I thought Nadal will win all Slams this year, 2010 but he pulled me through claiming 3 for 3 for the last 3 slams. So, I am 3 for 4. Clay season, I was 4 for 4. I did not pick him to win Queens. But I thought he would win in Cincy. That is ok.

Now, Steve picks Nadal because it IS the safest bet. Or, he picks nadal to jink him? Hmmmmmm.

Anyway, at this juncture, Rafa's lead in ranking points over Roger is close to 6,000 points! and over Djok like 5,000 points. Is that the Atp record between N1 vs. N2 or N1 vs. N3? If it is, that is incredible!

Acegirl,

Your post does not count.

See an insightful post made by Tuulia.

Posted by Tuulia 10/11/2010 at 06:47 PM

.... (Rafa) The past 2 weeks he has played 8 matches, but just 18 sets - and 6 of those 8 matches lasted only 70-75 mins. There is no reason to think he'd be physically tired, based both on those facts and what he said...

Nice analysis Tuulia. Thanks.

So, acegirl, that is how to post. Say something meaningful. Not garbage.

espnalando, always I like your truly comments. Unfortunately there are here a bunch of Federer KADS (I don't know why) and sadly they don't stand that there is a great player playing better than him, winning Slam by Slam meanwhile Roger has to go home earlier than they would like
This is tennis and sooner o later always there is a better player.
And more awful and sadly is when they try very hard to find "something" ( pathetic) to prove that anyone can beat the imaginary and idolized GOAT

@Carol, Espnalando makes the point upthread "I believe Isner MAY be induced to tank, just like Istomin at Cinny, in the first match with Roger ... by roger's handlers. So much money is on the line for his return".

I'm curious - do you like and agree with this comment too? Do you think that's how Roger progresses in tournaments?

Enjoyed reading the predictions, Steve. :)

Am I right to say that, if Nadal manages to win this Shanghai Masters, he's only 1 away from winning every ATP1000 series available in tennis?

He hasn't won Shanghai and Miami right?

+ 1 more WTF which isn't a master series.

My predictions
1) Nadal
2) Murray
3) Federer
4) Roddick
Nadal def Murray
Roddick def Federer
Nadal def Roddick
I hate Nadal. Still, he seems poised to win this one.

Roger.Grace.Style.Champion. Go Roger

@ james, what about Cincinnatti? Rafa is yet to reached any of the finals of Cincinnatti Master. Rafa has won Miami twice already.

I think these are the 3 Masters that Rafa has yet to win:

1. Key Biscayne
2. Cincinnatti
3. Shanghai
4. Paris <----not sure about this one.

COME oNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNN RAFA ,U gotta win thisssssss..

Gud Luck

@crybaby

Thanks for confirmation. I know he has around 2-3 ATP 1000Masters away from winning every single available.

All hardcourts I believe.

Sharapova has been nursing a shoulder injury for the last 3 years and every time she loses the tennis establishment uses it as an excuse. Time to get off of the Williams sisters case!!!

No Federer will go past the Semis!!!

crybaby and James: Just some slight corrections to your info re: Rafa and MS. He has never won Miami, Cincy, Paris or Shanghai. He has never reached the finals of Cincy. He has won Indian Wells and Toronto on two separate occasions and lost in the finals twice in Miami, once to Federer and the other time to Davydenko.

federer rocks......doesnt matter if he wins or not....!!true champion in every field of life..love roger.

I see Roger making another early exit....

"fans of certain players don't need to give pre-tournament excuses for their guys. if he loses, he loses"

Steve, not an excuse... by a mile. I'm more than aware that no one is invincible. And to that point Nadal is the best player on HC, but even this year his record vs Roger (#2 on HC) only beats him by a hair, or two.

"usc: i'd say nadal will go all out for this tournament; has he ever not gone all out for a masters event? "

hmmmmm, Cincinnati '10, and Toronto '10 come to mind.

you could be right though, he may go all out to try to win these next few titles.

we'll see.